• Title/Summary/Keyword: Prior distribution

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Noninformative priors for stress-strength reliability in the Pareto distributions

  • Kang, Sang-Gil;Kim, Dal-Ho;Lee, Woo-Dong
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.22 no.1
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    • pp.115-123
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    • 2011
  • In this paper, we develop the noninformative priors for stress-strength reliability from the Pareto distributions. We develop the matching priors and the reference priors. It turns out that the second order matching prior does not match the alternative coverage probabilities, and is not a highest posterior density matching or a cumelative distribution function matching priors. Also we reveal that the one-at-a-time reference prior and Jeffreys' prior are the second order matching prior. We show that the proposed reference prior matches the target coverage probabilities in a frequentist sense through simulation study, and an example is given.

At-site Low Flow Frequency Analysis Using Bayesian MCMC: I. Theoretical Background and Construction of Prior Distribution (Bayesian MCMC를 이용한 저수량 점 빈도분석: I. 이론적 배경과 사전분포의 구축)

  • Kim, Sang-Ug;Lee, Kil-Seong
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.41 no.1
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    • pp.35-47
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    • 2008
  • The low flow analysis is an important part in water resources engineering. Also, the results of low flow frequency analysis can be used for design of reservoir storage, water supply planning and design, waste-load allocation, and maintenance of quantity and quality of water for irrigation and wild life conservation. Especially, for identification of the uncertainty in frequency analysis, the Bayesian approach is applied and compared with conventional methodologies in at-site low flow frequency analysis. In the first manuscript, the theoretical background for the Bayesian MCMC (Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo) method and Metropolis-Hasting algorithm are studied. Two types of the prior distribution, a non-data- based and a data-based prior distributions are developed and compared to perform the Bayesian MCMC method. It can be suggested that the results of a data-based prior distribution is more effective than those of a non-data-based prior distribution. The acceptance rate of the algorithm is computed to assess the effectiveness of the developed algorithm. In the second manuscript, the Bayesian MCMC method using a data-based prior distribution and MLE(Maximum Likelihood Estimation) using a quadratic approximation are performed for the at-site low flow frequency analysis.

Noninformative Priors for the Ratio of Parameters in Inverse Gaussian Distribution (INVERSE GAUSSIAN분포의 모수비에 대한 무정보적 사전분포에 대한 연구)

  • 강상길;김달호;이우동
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.17 no.1
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    • pp.49-60
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    • 2004
  • In this paper, when the observations are distributed as inverse gaussian, we developed the noninformative priors for ratio of the parameters of inverse gaussian distribution. We developed the first order matching prior and proved that the second order matching prior does not exist. It turns out that one-at-a-time reference prior satisfies a first order matching criterion. Some simulation study is performed.

Design of Bayesian Zero-Failure Reliability Demonstration Test and Its Application (베이지안 신뢰성입증시험 설계와 활용)

  • Kwon, Young Il
    • Journal of Applied Reliability
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.1-10
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    • 2013
  • A Bayesian zero-failure reliability demonstration test method for products with exponential lifetime distribution is presented. Beta prior distribution for reliability of a product is used to design the Bayesian test plan and selecting a prior distribution using a prior test information is discussed. A test procedure with zero-failure acceptance criterion is developed that guarantees specified reliability of a product with given confidence level. An example is provided to illustrate the use of the developed Bayesian reliability demonstration test method.

Estimation of Geometric Mean for k Exponential Parameters Using a Probability Matching Prior

  • Kim, Hea-Jung;Kim, Dae Hwang
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.1-9
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    • 2003
  • In this article, we consider a Bayesian estimation method for the geometric mean of $textsc{k}$ exponential parameters, Using the Tibshirani's orthogonal parameterization, we suggest an invariant prior distribution of the $textsc{k}$ parameters. It is seen that the prior, probability matching prior, is better than the uniform prior in the sense of correct frequentist coverage probability of the posterior quantile. Then a weighted Monte Carlo method is developed to approximate the posterior distribution of the mean. The method is easily implemented and provides posterior mean and HPD(Highest Posterior Density) interval for the geometric mean. A simulation study is given to illustrates the efficiency of the method.

Bayesian One-Sided Hypothesis Testing for Shape Parameter in Inverse Gaussian Distribution

  • Kang, Sang-Gil;Kim, Dal-Ho;Lee, Woo-Dong
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.19 no.3
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    • pp.995-1006
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    • 2008
  • This article deals with the one-sided hypothesis testing problem in inverse Gaussian distribution. We propose Bayesian hypothesis testing procedures for the one-sided hypotheses of the shape parameter under the noninformative prior. The noninformative prior is usually improper which yields a calibration problem that makes the Bayes factor to be defined up to a multiplicative constant. So we propose the objective Bayesian hypothesis testing procedures based on the fractional Bayes factor, the median intrinsic Bayes factor and the encompassing intrinsic Bayes factor under the reference prior. Simulation study and a real data example are provided.

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Objective Bayesian multiple hypothesis testing for the shape parameter of generalized exponential distribution

  • Lee, Woo Dong;Kim, Dal Ho;Kang, Sang Gil
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.28 no.1
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    • pp.217-225
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    • 2017
  • This article deals with the problem of multiple hypothesis testing for the shape parameter in the generalized exponential distribution. We propose Bayesian hypothesis testing procedures for multiple hypotheses of the shape parameter with the noninformative prior. The Bayes factor with the noninformative prior is not well defined. The reason is that the most of the noninformative prior can be improper. Therefore we study the default Bayesian multiple hypothesis testing methods using the fractional and intrinsic Bayes factors with the reference priors. Simulation study is performed and an example is given.

Noninformative priors for the common mean in log-normal distributions

  • Kang, Sang-Gil
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.22 no.6
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    • pp.1241-1250
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    • 2011
  • In this paper, we develop noninformative priors for the log-normal distributions when the parameter of interest is the common mean. We developed Jeffreys' prior, th reference priors and the first order matching priors. It turns out that the reference prior and Jeffreys' prior do not satisfy a first order matching criterion, and Jeffreys' pri the reference prior and the first order matching prior are different. Some simulation study is performed and a real example is given.

A Study on the Role of Pivots in Bayesian Statistics

  • Hwang, Hyungtae
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.221-227
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    • 2002
  • The concept of pivot has been widely used in various classical inferences. In this paper, it is proved by use of pivotal quantities that the Bayesian inferences can be arrived at the same results of classical inferences for the location-scale parameters models under the assumption of non-informative prior distributions. Some theorems are proposed in which the posterior distribution and the sampling distribution of a pivotal quantity coincide. The theorems are applied illustratively to some statistical models.

An Economic Life Test Sampling Plan for Repairable Products with Exponential Interfailure Time Distribution

  • Kwon, Young Il
    • Journal of Korean Society for Quality Management
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    • v.21 no.1
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    • pp.108-120
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    • 1993
  • In this article an economic life test sampling plan is considered for repairable products when the products in each lot have the same interfailure time distribution, but the mean time between failure (MTBF) of a lot varies from lot to lot according to a known prior distribution. A cost model is constructed which consists of test cost, accept cost, and reject cost. Determination of the optimal plan which minimizes the expected average cost per lot is discussed. Numerical examples are presented to illustrate the use of the proposed sampling plans and sensitivity analyses for parameters of the prior distribution are performed.

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