• Title/Summary/Keyword: probability distribution model

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Reliability model for the probability of system failure of storm sewer (우수관의 불능확률 산정을 위한 신뢰성 모형)

  • Kwon, Hyuk-Jae;Lee, Cheol-Eung;Ahn, Jae-Beom
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2010.05a
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    • pp.1691-1695
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    • 2010
  • 본 연구에서 AFDA(Approximate Full Distribution Approach)를 사용하여 하수관의 불능확률을 정량적으로 산정할 수 있는 신뢰성 모형이 개발되었다. 여러 도시의 연 최대강우강도(Yearly Maximum Rainfall Intensity)를 이용하여 그 확률분포함수를 분석하였고 우수관(Storm sewer)의 불능확률 산정을 위한 신뢰성 모형에 적용하였다. 연 최대강우강도 자료의 분석결과 우리나라 중부지방의 여러 중소도시에 대한 연 최대강우강도의 확률분포함수는 Gumbel분포와 일치하는 것으로 나타났다. 신뢰성 모형은 불능확률의 신뢰함수를 구하기 위해 하중(Load)을 규정하는 식은 합리식이 사용되었고 용량(Capacity)를 규정하는 식은 Darcy-Weisbach공식과 Manning의 공식이 사용되었다. 이렇게 개발된 신뢰성 모형을 실제 우수관에 적용하여 불능확률을 산정하는 신뢰성 해석을 수행하였다. Y자형 우수관망에서 2개의 관으로 유입하는 각각의 유량이 그 관의 허용유량을 초과할 경우를 불능확률로 가정하였고, 나머지 관의 경우는 두 개의 관으로부터 유입하는 유량과 그 세 번째 관의 매설지역의 우수유입량의 합이 그 관의 허용유량을 초과할 경우를 불능상태(state of system failure)로 간주하여 불능확률을 정량적으로 산정하였다. Darcy-Weisbach공식과 Manning의 공식을 사용한 신뢰성 해석결과를 비교하였으며 우수관 직경의 변화에 따른 불능확률을 산정하였다. 특정한 수치(설계직경)이하일 경우 불능확률이 급격히 증가하는 것으로 나타났다. 따라서 실제 우수관의 유효직경이 설계직경에 항상 가깝도록 불순물을 제거하는 것이 최선의 관리 방법이며 불능확률을 줄이는 최선의 방법일 것이다. 본 연구에서 개발된 신뢰성 모형은 우수관의 운용, 관리, 감독은 물론 설계에 활용이 가능 할 것이다.

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Call Admission Control for Shared Buffer Memory Switch Network with Self-Similar Traffic (Self-Similar 트래픽을 갖는 공유버퍼 메모리 스위치 네트워크 환경에서 호 수락 제어 방법)

  • Kim Ki wan;Kim Doo yong
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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    • v.30 no.4B
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    • pp.162-169
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    • 2005
  • Network traffic measurements show that the data traffic on packet switched networks has the self-similar features which is different from the traditional traffic models such as Poisson distribution or Markovian process model. Most of the call admission control researches have been done on the performance analysis of a single network switch. It is necessary to consider the performance analysis of the proposed admission control scheme under interconnected switch environment because the data traffic transmits through switches in networks. From the simulation results, it is shown that the call admission control scheme may not operate properly on the interconnected switch even though the scheme works well on a single switch. In this parer, we analyze the cell loss probability, utilization and self-similarity of output ports of the interconnected networks switch by using shared buffer memory management schemes and propose the new call admission control scheme considering the interconnected network switches under self-similar traffic environments.

Segmentation of Color Image using the Deterministic Annealing EM Algorithm (결정적 어닐링 EM 알고리즘을 이요한 칼라 영상의 분할)

  • Cho, Wan-Hyun;Park, Jong-Hyun;Park, Soon-Young
    • Journal of KIISE:Databases
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    • v.28 no.3
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    • pp.324-333
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    • 2001
  • In this paper we present a novel color image segmentation algorithm based on a Gaussian Mixture Model(GMM). It is introduced a Deterministic Annealing Expectation Maximization(DAEM) algorithm which is developed using the principle of maximum entropy to overcome the local maxima problem associated with the standard EM algorithm. In our approach, the GMM is used to represent the multi-colored objects statistically and its parameters are estimated by DAEM algorithm. We also develop the automatic determination method of the number of components in Gaussian mixtures models. The segmentation of image is based on the maximum posterior probability distribution which is calculated by using the GMM. The experimental results show that the proposed DAEM can estimate the parameters more accurately than the standard EM and the determination method of the number of mixture models is very efficient. When tested on two natural images, the proposed algorithm performs much better than the traditional algorithm in segmenting the image fields.

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Analysis of Irrigation Efficiency and Pattern in Galshin Pumping District (갈신양수장 관개지구의 관개효율과 관개패턴분석)

  • Ryu, Bumhee;Park, Seungki
    • Journal of Korean Society of Rural Planning
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    • v.26 no.3
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    • pp.91-102
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    • 2020
  • The purpose of study was analyze the pumping characteristics, Irrigation Efficiency(IE), and irrigation pattern by period of rice growing stage with based on the performance of design irrigation water requirement and operational Galshin Pumping(GP) station in GP irrigation district constructed under rural water development project master plan. GP station was located in Yedang reservoir, Yesan-gun, Chungcheongnam-do and has been supplying irrigation water since 2006. The research data are the Irrigation Water Requirement(IWR) and the Pumping Water Amount(PWA) from 2006 to 2015 at the GP station, which is the supplied amount. The IWR were calculated using the Blaney-Criddle formula of the HOMWRS program, Hydrological Operation Model for Water Resource System, developed by Korea Rural Community Corporation. The Blaney-Criddle formula was used to calculate design irrigation water requirement of Galshin rural water development project master plan. During 2006-2015, the study period, the annual average IWR is 763.2(±149.1)mm, the annual PWA of the GP station is 397.4mm to 1,056.9mm, and those average annual PWA is 643.4(±208.4)mm. The annual IE of GP station 96.5% to 169.0%, and the average annual IE is 124.3%, which is higher than the research results conducted in other pumping stations. Analyzing the irrigation patterns of the GP irrigation district, the IWR Ratio per 10days(IWRR) and the PWA Ratio per 10days(PWAR) of the G P station were obtained. The IWRR is the percentage of IWR for each 10 days of a month to total IWR per year, and the PWAR is the percentage of PWA for each 10 days of a month to total PWA per year. The Kolmogorov- Smirnov(K-S) test results of IWRR and PWAR showed the characteristics classification by rice growing stage and stable normal distribution characteristics. Average IWRR(AIWRR) and Average PWAR(APWAR) are presented as irrigation patterns. Irrigation pattern analysis will be able to standardize comparison, analysis and probability calculation of the pumping station characteristics of different pumping stations and apply to objective evaluation of the pumping station district.

A Study on the Traffic Accident Estimation Model using Empirical Bayes Method (Empirical Bayes Method를 이용한 교통사고 예측모형)

  • Gang, Hyeon-Geon;Gang, Seung-Gyu;Jang, Yong-Ho
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.27 no.5
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    • pp.135-144
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    • 2009
  • This study estimates the expected number of accidents in Kyungbuk Province to capitalize on experience gained from four years of accident history using the Empirical Bayes (EB) Method. The number of accidents of each site in Kyungbuk Province is recalculated using the Equivalent Property Damage Only (EPDO) method to reflect the severities of the accidents. A cluster analysis is performed to determine similar sites and a unique Safety Performance Function (SPF) is established for each site. The overdispersion parameter is built to correct the difference between the actual number of accidents and the underlying probability distribution. To adjust for varying traffic characteristics of each site, a relative weight is applied and eventually estimates the expected number of accidents. The results show that the highest accident sites are Kimcheon, Youngcheon, and Chilgok, but on the other hand the lowest is Gunwi.

Probabilistic Evaluation of the Effect of Drought on Water Temperature in Major Stream Sections of the Nakdong River Basin (낙동강 유역 주요하천 구간에서 가뭄이 수온에 미치는 영향의 확률론적인 평가)

  • Seo, Jiyu;Won, Jeongeun;Lee, Hosun;Kim, Sangdan
    • Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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    • v.37 no.5
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    • pp.369-380
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    • 2021
  • In this work, we analyzed the effects of drought on the water temperature (WT) of Nakdong river basin major river sections using Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and WT data. The analysis was carried out on a seasonal basis. After calculating the optimal time scale of the SPI through the correlation between the SPI and WT data, we used the copula theory to model the joint probability distribution between the WT and SPI on the optimal time scale. During spring and fall, the possibility of environmental drought caused by high WT increased in most of the river sections. Notably, in summer, the possibility of environmental drought caused by high WT increased in all river sections. On the other hand, in winter, the possibility of environmental drought caused by low WT increased in most river sections. From the risk map, which quantified the sensitivity of WT to the risk of environmental drought, the river sections Nakbon C, Namgang E, and Nakbon K showed increased stress in the water ecosystem due to high WT when drought occurred in summer. When drought occurred in winter, an increased water ecosystem stress caused by falling WT was observed in the river sections Gilan A, Yongjeon A, Nakbon F, Hwanggang B, Nakbon I, Nakbon J, Nakbon K, Nakbon L, and Nakbon M. The methodology developed in this study will be used in the future to quantify the effects of drought on water quality as well as WT.

FORECAST OF DAILY MAJOR FLARE PROBABILITY USING RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN VECTOR MAGNETIC PROPERTIES AND FLARING RATES

  • Lim, Daye;Moon, Yong-Jae;Park, Jongyeob;Park, Eunsu;Lee, Kangjin;Lee, Jin-Yi;Jang, Soojeong
    • Journal of The Korean Astronomical Society
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    • v.52 no.4
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    • pp.133-144
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    • 2019
  • We develop forecast models of daily probabilities of major flares (M- and X-class) based on empirical relationships between photospheric magnetic parameters and daily flaring rates from May 2010 to April 2018. In this study, we consider ten magnetic parameters characterizing size, distribution, and non-potentiality of vector magnetic fields from Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO)/Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) and Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) X-ray flare data. The magnetic parameters are classified into three types: the total unsigned parameters, the total signed parameters, and the mean parameters. We divide the data into two sets chronologically: 70% for training and 30% for testing. The empirical relationships between the parameters and flaring rates are used to predict flare occurrence probabilities for a given magnetic parameter value. Major results of this study are as follows. First, major flare occurrence rates are well correlated with ten parameters having correlation coefficients above 0.85. Second, logarithmic values of flaring rates are well approximated by linear equations. Third, using total unsigned and signed parameters achieved better performance for predicting flares than the mean parameters in terms of verification measures of probabilistic and converted binary forecasts. We conclude that the total quantity of non-potentiality of magnetic fields is crucial for flare forecasting among the magnetic parameters considered in this study. When this model is applied for operational use, it can be used using the data of 21:00 TAI with a slight underestimation of 2-6.3%.

A Preliminary study of Biomechanical Behavior of High-Performance Polymer Post-Core System (고성능 폴리머 재질의 포스트-코어 시스템의 생역학적 거동에 대한 예비실험)

  • Lee, Ki-Sun;Kim, Jong-Eun;Kim, Jee-Hwan;Lee, Jeong-Yol;Shin, Sang-Wan
    • Journal of the Korean Academy of Esthetic Dentistry
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    • v.27 no.2
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    • pp.75-81
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    • 2018
  • The aim of this study was to evaluate the biomechanical behavior and long-term safety of high performance polymer PEKK as an intraradicular dental post-core material through comparative finite element analysis (FEA) with other conventional post-core materials. A 3D FEA model of a maxillary central incisor was constructed. A cyclic loading force of 50 N was applied at an angle of $45^{\circ}$ to the longitudinal axis of the tooth at the palatal surface of the crown. For comparison with traditionally used post-core materials, three materials (gold, fiberglass, and PEKK) were simulated to determine their post-core properties. PEKK, with a lower elastic modulus than root dentin, showed comparably high failure resistance and a more favorable stress distribution than conventional post-core material. However, the PEKK post-core system showed a higher probability of debonding and crown failure under long-term cyclic loading than the metal or fiberglass post-core systems.

The Effect of Performance Feedback on Firms' Decision to Form an International Strategic Alliance and Performance in the Korean Manufacturing Industry

  • Han, Sang-yun
    • Journal of Korea Trade
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    • v.25 no.6
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    • pp.57-77
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    • 2021
  • Purpose - International strategic alliance has been regarded as a strategic decision made by firms' managerial problems and ensure performance growth. From the perspective of the proactive behavior for changing strategies in a global market, this study aims to identify whether performance feedback influences firms' decisions to pursue strategic alliances. This study examines the effects of performance feedback on performance when firms use strategic alliances. Design/methodology - To analyze the impact of performance feedback on forming an international strategic alliance, this study adopt the concept of performance feedback to develop a research model and our hypotheses. Thus, this study used a two-stage least squares unbalanced panel data analysis with random effects. This study is based on 24,543 observations from Korean manufacturing firms from 2007 to 2016. Findings - The results show that firms pursue the formation of strategic alliances more actively, if their past financial and R&D performance are lower than their aspiration level, based on the result of performance feedback. An in split sample analysis for examining the effect of a firm's technology sophistication based on the OECD's classification, negative innovation performance discrepancy has positive effects on the probability of international alliance in high-tech and medium-high-tech industries. Financial performance also improves when a firm decides to form a strategic alliance based on the results of performance feedback. Originality/value - This research extends recent efforts to better understand the effect of performance feedback on firms' performance when they use strategic alliances. These findings suggest that the CEOs and managers of firms should consider the performance feedback perspective when deciding to pursue a strategic alliance to improve performance. In other words, the decision-makers in a firm must analyze and consider various complex variables inside and outside the firm and expand such subjects of examination to more complex and dynamic factors.

Probabilistic Monitoring of Effect of Meteorological Drought on Stream BOD Water Quality (기상학적 가뭄이 하천 BOD 수질에 미치는 영향의 확률론적 모니터링)

  • Jiyu Seo;Jeonghoon Lee;Hosun Lee;Sangdan Kim
    • Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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    • v.39 no.1
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    • pp.9-19
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    • 2023
  • Drought is a natural disaster that can have serious social impacts. Drought's impact ranges from water supply for humans to ecosystems, but the impact of drought on river water quality requires careful investigation. In general, drought occurs meteorologically and is classified as agricultural drought, hydrological drought, and environmental drought. In this study, the BOD environmental drought is defined using the bivariate copula joint probability distribution model between the meteorological drought index and the river BOD, and based on this, the environmental drought condition index (EDCI-BOD) was proposed. The results of examining the proposed index using past precipitation and BOD observation data showed that EDCI-BOD expressed environmental drought well in terms of river BOD water quality. In addition, by classifying the calculated EDCI-BOD into four levels, namely, 'attention', 'caution', 'alert', and 'seriousness', a practical monitoring stage for environmental drought of BOD was constructed. We further estimated the sensitivity of the stream BOD to meteorological drought, and through this, we could identify the stream section in which the stream BOD responded relatively more sensitively to the occurrence of meteorological drought. The results of this study are expected to provide information necessary for river BOD management in the event of meteorological droughts.