Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment (한국물환경학회지)

Korean Society on Water Environment (한국물환경학회)
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Probabilistic Evaluation of the Effect of Drought on Water Temperature in Major Stream Sections of the Nakdong River Basin

낙동강 유역 주요하천 구간에서 가뭄이 수온에 미치는 영향의 확률론적인 평가

  • Seo, Jiyu (Division of Earth Environmental System Science (Major of Environmental Engineering), Pukyong National University) ;
  • Won, Jeongeun (Division of Earth Environmental System Science (Major of Environmental Engineering), Pukyong National University) ;
  • Lee, Hosun (National Drought Information Analysis Center, Korea Water Resources Corporation) ;
  • Kim, Sangdan (Department of Environmental Engineering, Pukyong National University)
  • 서지유 (부경대학교 지구환경시스템과학부(환경공학전공)) ;
  • 원정은 (부경대학교 지구환경시스템과학부(환경공학전공)) ;
  • 이호선 (한국수자원공사 국가가뭄정보분석센터) ;
  • 김상단 (부경대학교 환경공학과)
  • Received : 2021.07.22
  • Accepted : 2021.09.27
  • Published : 2021.09.30
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Abstract

In this work, we analyzed the effects of drought on the water temperature (WT) of Nakdong river basin major river sections using Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and WT data. The analysis was carried out on a seasonal basis. After calculating the optimal time scale of the SPI through the correlation between the SPI and WT data, we used the copula theory to model the joint probability distribution between the WT and SPI on the optimal time scale. During spring and fall, the possibility of environmental drought caused by high WT increased in most of the river sections. Notably, in summer, the possibility of environmental drought caused by high WT increased in all river sections. On the other hand, in winter, the possibility of environmental drought caused by low WT increased in most river sections. From the risk map, which quantified the sensitivity of WT to the risk of environmental drought, the river sections Nakbon C, Namgang E, and Nakbon K showed increased stress in the water ecosystem due to high WT when drought occurred in summer. When drought occurred in winter, an increased water ecosystem stress caused by falling WT was observed in the river sections Gilan A, Yongjeon A, Nakbon F, Hwanggang B, Nakbon I, Nakbon J, Nakbon K, Nakbon L, and Nakbon M. The methodology developed in this study will be used in the future to quantify the effects of drought on water quality as well as WT.

Keywords

Acknowledgement

본 연구는 환경부의 재원으로 2021년도 한국수자원공사의 '가뭄 시 환경적 영향을 고려하기 위한 분석체계 구축' 용역사업의 지원을 받아 수행되었음.

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