FORECAST OF DAILY MAJOR FLARE PROBABILITY USING RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN VECTOR MAGNETIC PROPERTIES AND FLARING RATES |
Lim, Daye
(School of Space Research, Kyung Hee University)
Moon, Yong-Jae (School of Space Research, Kyung Hee University) Park, Jongyeob (Korea Astronomy and Space Science Institute) Park, Eunsu (School of Space Research, Kyung Hee University) Lee, Kangjin (School of Space Research, Kyung Hee University) Lee, Jin-Yi (Department of Astronomy & Space Science, Kyung Hee University) Jang, Soojeong (Korea Astronomy and Space Science Institute) |
1 | Shin, S., Lee, J.-Y., Moon, Y.-J., et al. 2016, Development of Daily Maximum Flare-Flux Forecast Models for Strong Solar Flares, SoPh, 291, 897 |
2 | Toriumi, S., & Takasao, S. 2017, Numerical Simulations of Flare-productive Active Regions: -sunspots, Sheared Polarity Inversion Lines, Energy Storage, and Predictions, ApJ, 850, 39 DOI |
3 | Tsurutani, B. T., Judge, D. L., Guarnieri, F. L., Gangopadhyay, P., Jones, A. R., et al. 2005, The October 28, 2003 Extreme EUV Solar Flares and Resultant Extreme Ionospheric Effect: Comparison to Other Halloween Events and the Bastille Day Event, GRL, 32, L03S09 |
4 | Welsch, B. T., Li, Y., Schuck, P. W., & Fisher, G. H. 2009, What Is the Relationship between Photospheric Flow Fields and Solar Flares?, ApJ, 705, 821 DOI |
5 | Wheatland, M. S. 2000, The Origin of the Solar Flare Waiting-time Distribution, ApJL, 536, L109 DOI |
6 | Wheatland, M. S. 2005, A Statistical Solar Flare Forecast Method, SpWea, 3, S07003 |
7 | Yu, D., Huang, X., Wang, H., & Cui, Y. 2009, Shortterm Solar Flare Prediction Using a Sequential Supervised Learning Method, SoPh, 255, 91 |
8 | Yuan, Y., Shih, F. Y., Jing, J., & Wang, H.-M. 2010, Automated Flare Forecasting Using a Statistical Learning Technique, RAA, 10, 785 |
9 | Zhang, H. 2016, Photospheric Magnetic Free Energy Density of Solar Active Regions, SoPh, 291, 3501 |
10 | Aulanier, G., Demoulin, P., Schrijver, C. J., Janvier, M., Pariat, E., & Schmieder, B. 2013, The Standard Flare Model in Three Dimensions II. Upper Limit on Solar Flare Energy, A&A, 549, A66 DOI |
11 | Bao, S. D., Zhang, H. Q., Ai, G. X., & Zhang, M. 1999, A Survey of Flares and Current Helicity in Active Regions, A&AS, 139, 311 DOI |
12 | Barnes, G., Leka, K. D., Schrijver, C. J., et al. 2016, A Comparison of Flare Forecasting Methods. 1. Results from the "All-Clear" Workshop, ApJ, 829, 89 DOI |
13 | Barnes, G., & Leka, K. D. 2006, Photospheric Magnetic Field Properties of Flaring Versus Flare-quiet Active Regions. 3. Magnetic Charge Topology Models, ApJ, 646, 1303 DOI |
14 | Barnes, G., Leka, K. D., Schumer, E. A., & Della-Rose, D. J. 2007, Probabilistic Forecasting of Solar Flares from Vector Magnetogram Data, SpWea, 5, S09002 |
15 | Bloomfield, D. S., Higgins, P. A., McAteer, R. T. J., & Gallagher, P. T. 2012, Toward Reliable Benchmarking of Solar Flare Forecasting Methods, ApJL, 747, L41 DOI |
16 | Bobra, M. G., & Couvidat, S. 2015, Solar Flare Prediction Using SDO/HMI Vector Magnetic Field Data with a Machine-learning Algorithm, ApJ, 798, 135 DOI |
17 | Bobra, M. G., Sun, X., Hoeksema, J. T., et al. 2014, The Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) Vector Magnetic Field Pipeline: SHARPs - Space-Weather HMI Active REgion Patches, SoPh, 289, 3549 |
18 | Bocchialini, K., Grison, B., Menvielle, M., et al. 2018, Statistical Analysis of Solar Events Associated with Storm Sudden Commencements over One Year of Solar Maximum During Cycle 23: Propagation from the Sun to the Earth and Effects, SoPh, 293, 75 |
19 | Bornmann, P. L., & Shaw, D. 1994, Flare Rates and the McIntosh Active-region Classifications, SoPh, 150, 127 |
20 | Canfield, R. C., Hudson, H. S., & McKenzie, D. E. 1999, Sigmoidal Morphology and Eruptive Solar Activity, GeoRL, 26, 627 |
21 | Liu, L., Wang, Y., Wang, J., Shen, C., Ye, P., Liu, R., Che, J., Zhang, Q., & Wang, S. 2016, Why Is a Flare-rich Active Region CME-poor?, ApJ, 826, 119 DOI |
22 | Low, B. C. 1994, Magnetohydrodynamic Processes in the Solar Corona: Flares, Coronal Mass Ejections, and Magnetic Helicity, PhPl, 1, 1684 DOI |
23 | McAteer, R. T. J., Gallagher, P. T., & Ireland, J. 2005, Statistics of Active Region Complexity: A Large-scale Fractal Dimension Survey, ApJ, 631, 628 DOI |
24 | McCloskey, A. E., Gallagher, P. T., & Bloomfield, D. S. 2016, Flaring Rates and the Evolution of Sunspot Group McIntosh Classifications, SoPh, 291, 1711 |
25 | McIntosh, P. S. 1990, The Classification of Sunspot Groups, SoPh, 125, 251 |
26 | Moon, Y.-J., Choe, G. S., Yun, H. S., & Park, Y. D. 2001, Flaring Time Interval Distribution and Spatial Correlation of Major X-ray Solar Flares, JGR, 106, 29951 DOI |
27 | Moore, R. L., Sterling, A. C., Hudson, H. S., & Lemen, J. R. 2001, Onset of the Magnetic Explosion in Solar Flares and Coronal Mass Ejections, ApJ, 552, 833 DOI |
28 | Murray, S. A., Bingham, S., Sharpe, M., & Jackson, D. R. 2017, Flare Forecasting at the Met Office Space Weather Operations Centre, SpWea, 15, 577 |
29 | Nishizuka, N., Sugiura, K., Kubo, Y., et al. 2017, Solar Flare Prediction Model with Three Machine-learning Algorithms Using Ultraviolet Brightening and Vector Magnetograms, ApJ, 835, 156 DOI |
30 | Nishizuka, N., Sugiura, K., Kubo, Y., et al. 2018, Deep Flare Net (DeFN) Model for Solar Flare Prediction, ApJ, 858, 113 DOI |
31 | Park, E., Moon, Y.-J., Shin, S., et al. 2018, Application of the Deep Convolutional Neural Network to the Forecast of Solar Flare Occurrence Using Full-disk Solar Magnetograms, ApJ, 869, 91 DOI |
32 | Park, J., Moon, Y.-J., Choi, S., et al. 2017, Application of Decision-making to a Solar Flare Forecast in the Cost-loss Ratio Situation, SpWea, 15, 704 |
33 | Ahmed, O. W., Qahwaji, R., Colak, T., et al. 2013, Solar Flare Prediction Using Advanced Feature Extraction, Machine Learning, and Feature Selection, SoPh, 283, 157 |
34 | Leka, K. D., & Barnes, G. 2003b, Photospheric Magnetic Field Properties of Flaring Versus Flare-quiet Active Regions. 2. Discriminant Analysis, ApJ, 595, 1296 DOI |
35 | Leka, K. D., & Barnes, G. 2007, Photospheric Magnetic Field Properties of Flaring Versus Flare-quiet Active Regions. 4. A Statistically Significant Sample, ApJ, 656, 1173 DOI |
36 | Leka, K. D., Barnes, G., & Wagner, E. 2018, The NWRA Classification Infrastructure: Description and Extension to the Discriminant Analysis Flare Forecasting System (DAFFS), JSWSC, 8, A25 |
37 | Li, R., Cui, Y., He, H., & Wang, H. 2008, Application of Support VectorMachine Combined with K-nearest Neighbors in Solar Flare and Solar Proton Events Forecasting, AdSpR, 42, 1469 |
38 | Li, R., & Zhu, J. 2013, Solar Flare Forecasting Based on Sequential Sunspot Data, RAA, 13, 1118 |
39 | Colak, T., & Qahwaji, R. 2009, Automated Solar Activity Prediction: A Hybrid Computer Platform Using Machine Learning and Solar Imaging for Automated Prediction of Solar Flares, SpWea, 7, S06001 |
40 | Cui, Y., Li, R., Zhang, L., He, Y., & Wang, H. 2006, Correlation between Solar Flare Productivity and Photospheric Magnetic Field Properties, SoPh, 237, 45 |
41 | Crown, M. D. 2012, Validation of the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center's Solar Flare Forecasting Look-up Table and Forecaster-issued Probabilities, SpWea, 10, S06006 |
42 | Domingo, V., Fleck, B., & Poland, A. I. 1995, The SOHO Mission: An Overview, SoPh, 162, 1 |
43 | Falconer, D. A., Barghouty, A. F., Khazanov, I., & Moore, R. L. 2011, A Tool for Empirical Forecasting of Major Flares, Coronal Mass Ejections, and Solar Particle Events from a Proxy of Active-region Free Magnetic Energy, SpWea, 9, S04003 |
44 | Falconer, D. A., Moore, R. L., Barghouty, A. F., & Khazanov, I. 2014, MAG4 Versus Alternative Techniques for Forecasting Active Region Flare Productivity, SpWea, 12, 306 |
45 | Ferro, C. A T., & Stephenson, D. B. 2011, Extremal Dependence Indices: Improved Verification Measures for Deterministic Forecasts of Rare Binary Events, Wea. Forecasting, 26, 699 DOI |
46 | Fisher, G. H., Bercik, D. J., Welsch, B. T., & Hudson, H. S. 2012, Global Forces in Eruptive Solar Flares: The Lorentz Force Acting on the Solar Interior, SoPh, 277, 59 |
47 | Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., & Wang, H. 2002, Activeregion Monitoring and Flare Forecasting. 1. Data Processing and First Results, SoPh, 209, 171 |
48 | Giovanelli, R. G. 1939, The Relationships between Eruptions and Sunspots, ApJ, 89, 555 DOI |
49 | Guennou, C., Pariat, E., Leake, J. E., & Vilmer, N. 2017, Testing Predictors of Eruptivity Using Parametric Flux Emergence Simulations, JSWSC, 7, A17 |
50 | Hale, G. E., Ellerman, F., Nicholson, S. B., & Joy, A. H. 1919, The Magnetic Polarity of Sun-spots, ApJ, 49, 153 DOI |
51 | Hoeksema, J. T., Liu, Y., Hayashi, K., et al. 2014, The Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) Vector Magnetic Field Pipeline: Overview and Performance, SoPh, 289, 3483 |
52 | Huang, X., & Wang, H.-N. 2013, Solar Flare Prediction Using Highly Stressed Longitudinal Magnetic Field Parameters, RAA, 13, 351 |
53 | Huang, X., Wang, H., Xu, L., et al. 2018, Deep Learning Based Solar Flare Forecasting Model. 1. Results for Line-of-sight Magnetograms, ApJ, 856, 7 DOI |
54 | Ji, H. S., Song, M. T., Zhang, Y. A., & Song, S. M. 2003, The Horizontal and Vertical Electric Currents in Three Solar Active Regions and Their Relations with Flares, Chin. Astron. Astrophys., 27, 79 DOI |
55 | Jing, J., Park, S.-H., Liu, C., et al. 2012, Evolution of Relative Magnetic Helicity and Current Helicity in NOAA Active Region 11158, ApJL, 752, L9 DOI |
56 | Kontogiannis, I., Georgoulis, M. K., Park, S.-H., & Guerra, J. A. 2017, Non-neutralized Electric Currents in Solar Active Regions and Flare Productivity, SoPh, 292, 159 |
57 | Kubo, Y., Den, M., & Ishii, M. 2017, Verification of Operational Solar Flare Forecast: Case of Regional Warning Center Japan, JSWSC, 7, A20 |
58 | Kusano, K., Bamba, Y., Yamamoto, T. T., Toriumi, S., & Asai, A. 2012, Magnetic Field Structures Triggering Solar Flares And Coronal Mass Ejections, ApJ, 760, 31 DOI |
59 | Lee, K., Moon, Y.-J., Lee, J.-Y., et al. 2012, Solar Flare Occurrence Rate and Probability in Terms of the Sunspot Classification Supplemented with Sunspot Area and Its Changes, SoPh, 281, 639 |
60 | Lee, K., Moon, Y.-J., & Nakariakov, V. M. 2016, Dependence of Occurrence Rates of Solar Flares and Coronal Mass Ejections on the Solar Cycle Phase and the Importance of Large-scale Connectivity, ApJ, 831, 131 DOI |
61 | Leka, K. D., & Barnes, G. 2003a, Photospheric Magnetic Field Properties of Flaring Versus Flare-quiet Active Regions. 1. Data, General Approach, and Sample Results, ApJ, 595, 1277 DOI |
62 | Pesnell, W. D., Thompson, B. J., & Chamberlin, P. C. 2012, The Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO), SoPh, 275, 3 |
63 | Qahwaji, R., & Colak, T. 2007, Automatic Short-term Solar Flare Prediction Using Machine Learning and Sunspot Associations, SoPh, 241, 195 |
64 | Raboonik, A., Safari, H., Alipour, N., & Wheatland, M. S. 2017, Prediction of Solar Flares Using Unique Signatures of Magnetic Field Images, ApJ, 834, 11 DOI |
65 | Sammis, I., Tang, F., & Zirin, H. 2000, The Dependence of Large Flare Occurrence on the Magnetic Structure of Sunspots, ApJ, 540, 583 DOI |
66 | Scherrer, P. H., Bogart, R. S., Bush, R. I., et al. 1995, The Solar Oscillations Investigation - Michelson Doppler Imager, SoPh, 162, 129 |
67 | Scherrer, P. H., Schou, J., Bush, R. I., et al. 2012, The Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) Investigation for the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO), SoPh, 275, 207 |
68 | Schou, J., Scherrer, P. H., Bush, R. I., et al. 2012, Design and Ground Calibration of the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) Instrument on the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO), SoPh, 275, 229 |
69 | Schrijver, C. J. 2007, A Characteristic Magnetic Field Pattern Associated with All Major Solar Flares and Its Use in Flare Forecasting, ApJL, 655, L117 DOI |
70 | Schrijver, C. J. 2009, Driving Major Solar Flares and Eruptions: A Review, AdSpR, 43, 739 |
71 | Schwenn, R. 2006, Space Weather: The Solar Perspective, LRSP, 3, 2 |
72 | Liu, C., Deng, N.,Wang, J. T. L., &Wang, H. 2017, Predicting Solar Flares Using SDO/HMI Vector Magnetic Data Products and the Random Forest Algorithm, ApJ, 843, 104 DOI |