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A Study on the Traffic Accident Estimation Model using Empirical Bayes Method  

Gang, Hyeon-Geon (도로교통공단)
Gang, Seung-Gyu (계명대학교 교통공학과)
Jang, Yong-Ho (계명대학교 교통공학과)
Publication Information
Journal of Korean Society of Transportation / v.27, no.5, 2009 , pp. 135-144 More about this Journal
Abstract
This study estimates the expected number of accidents in Kyungbuk Province to capitalize on experience gained from four years of accident history using the Empirical Bayes (EB) Method. The number of accidents of each site in Kyungbuk Province is recalculated using the Equivalent Property Damage Only (EPDO) method to reflect the severities of the accidents. A cluster analysis is performed to determine similar sites and a unique Safety Performance Function (SPF) is established for each site. The overdispersion parameter is built to correct the difference between the actual number of accidents and the underlying probability distribution. To adjust for varying traffic characteristics of each site, a relative weight is applied and eventually estimates the expected number of accidents. The results show that the highest accident sites are Kimcheon, Youngcheon, and Chilgok, but on the other hand the lowest is Gunwi.
Keywords
Empirical Bayes Method; Hazardous Road Locations; Equivalent Property Damage Only; Safety Performance Function; Traffic Accident Estimation;
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Times Cited By KSCI : 4  (Citation Analysis)
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