• Asia-Pacific Journal of Business
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• v.14 no.4
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• pp.413-429
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• 2023

Purpose - The purpose of this study is to investigate the determinants of consumers' inflation expectations using consumers' inflation perceptions and the sub-components of consumer price index (CPI) basket in South Korea based on a consumer survey conducted by the Bank of Korea (BOK). Design/methodology/approach - Using Carroll's (2003) epidemiological model, we analyzed data from January 2013 to January 2023, resulting in a data set of 121 observations for both inflation perceptions and inflation expectations. This study focuses only on aggregate inflation expectations and perceptions because of data availability from the BOK. Findings - Professionals' forecasts play a major role in forming consumers' inflation expectations, whereas the actual headline CPI and consumers' inflation perceptions do not. These results remain robust when including the sub-components of the CPI basket in the analysis. Research implications or Originality - It would be the most efficient way to suppress professionals' expected inflation in fighting against a substantial spike in consumers' inflation expectations. To guide consumers' inflation expectations based on BOK's inflation targeting, the bank needs to consider professionals' forecasts in devising monetary policies.

• Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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• v.19 no.40
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• pp.1-14
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• 1996

We develop a dynamic demand forecasting model compared to regression analysis model and AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average(ARIMA) model. The dynamic model can apply to the current dynamic data to forecasts through introducing state equation. A multiple regression model and ARIMA model using given data are designed via the model analysis. The forecasting fitness evaluation between the designed models and the dynamic model is compared with the criterion of sum of squared error.

• Journal of Korean Society for Quality Management
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• v.31 no.2
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• pp.183-193
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• 2003

A special cause producing temporary deviation in the underlying process can influence on process adjustment in responsive feedback control system. In this paper, the impact of special causes on the EWMA(Exponentially Weighted Moving Average) forecasts and the process adjustment that is based on the EWMA forecasts are derived. For some special causes with patterned type of contamination, the influence of the causes on the output process are explicitly investigated. A data set, contaminated by a special cause of level shift, is analyzed to evaluate the impact numerically.

• Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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• v.25 no.3
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• pp.65-79
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• 2000

Based on the results of the internet service survey, the traffic demand forecasts of the AO/DI internet service and N-ISDN service have been performed for each channel(B-channel and D-channel). These traffic forecasts can be used as useful input data for investigating packet processing capacity of the TDX-10A switching system and suggesting guideline for capacity increasement.

• The Magazine of the IEIE
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• v.29 no.9
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• pp.18-30
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• 2002

Wireless communication systems will be one of the biggest drivers of semiconductor products over the next decade. Global Positioning System (GPS) and Blue-tooth, HomeRF, and Wireless-LNA system are just a few of RF-module candidate awaiting integration into next generation mobile phone. Motivated by the generation mobile phone. Motivated by the growing needs for low-cost and multi-band/multi-function single chip wireless transceivers, CMOS technology has been recognized as a most promising candidate for the implementation of the future wireless communication systems. This paper presents recent developments in RF CMOS technology, which is classified into device technology and circuit technology and from them forecasts technology and from them forecasts technology trends in the near future.

• Journal of Environmental Science International
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• v.20 no.9
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• pp.1095-1104
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• 2011

A survey of professionals employed in marine related fields was conducted on subjects related to marine meteorological forecasts and special reports. The outcome of the survey indicated that the respondents were overall satisfied with the determination of the zones related to marine meteorological forecasts and special reports and with the number of forecast factors, but in regards to the questions about specific adjustment methods, it was found that the respondents perceived a need for adjustment. In addition, although there was a high consensus among the respondents that the criteria for watch and warning in the marine special reports were suitable, they voiced the opinion that it will be necessary to implement changes in the current criteria for watch and warning in order to further improve the compatibility of the criteria. The survey found that there was a high level of utilization for the marine meteorological information provided by the Korea Meteorological Administration(KMA), and that respondents mostly acquired this information via internet and TV. On the other hand, however, the satisfaction level regarding the accuracy of the marine meteorological information was low in comparison to the utilization level. The survey regarding areas for improvement in the forecasts and special reports also indicated that the need for 'improvement in the accuracy of forecasts' was cited most frequently.

• Ocean and Polar Research
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• v.40 no.3
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• pp.99-114
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• 2018

In the present study, we assess the GloSea5 (Global Seasonal Forecasting System version 5) near-surface ocean current forecasts using globally observed surface drifter dataset. Annual mean surface current fields at 0-day forecast lead time are quite consistent with drifter-derived velocity fields, and low values of root mean square (RMS) errors distributes in global oceans, except for regions of high variability, such as the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, Kuroshio, and Gulf Stream. Moreover a comparison with the global high-resolution forecasting system, HYCOM (Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model), signifies that GloSea5 performs well in terms of short-range surface-current forecasts. Predictions from 0-day to 4-week lead time are also validated for the global ocean and regions covering the main ocean basins. In general, the Indian Ocean and tropical regions yield relatively high RMS errors against all forecast lead times, whilst the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans show low values. RMS errors against forecast lead time ranging from 0-day to 4-week reveal the largest increase rate between 0-day and 1-week lead time in all regions. Correlation against forecast lead time also reveals similar results. In addition, a strong westward bias of about $0.2m\;s^{-1}$ is found along the Equator in the western Pacific on the initial forecast day, and it extends toward the Equator of the eastern Pacific as the lead time increases.

• Atmosphere
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• v.30 no.2
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• pp.195-207
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• 2020

This study aims to introduce the structure of the impact-based heat health warning system on 165 counties in South Korea developed by the National Institute of Meteorological Sciences. This system was developed using the daily maximum perceived temperature (PTmax), which is a human physiology-based thermal comfort index, and the Local ENSemble prediction system for the probability forecasts. Also, A risk matrix proposed by the World Meteorological Organization was employed for the impact-based forecasts of this system. The threshold value of the risk matrix was separately set depending on regions. In this system, the risk level was issued as four levels (GREEN, YELLOW, ORANGE, RED) for first, second, and third forecast lead-day (LD1, LD2, and LD3). The daily risk level issued by the system was evaluated using emergency heat-related patients obtained at six cities, including Seoul, Incheon, Daejeon, Gwangju, Daegu, and Busan, for LD1 to LD3. The high-risks level occurred more consistently in the shorter lead time (LD3 → LD1) and the performance (r_s) was increased from 0.42 (LD3) to 0.45 (LD1) in all cities. Especially, it showed good performance (r_s = 0.51) in July and August, when heat stress is highest in South Korea. From an impact-based forecasting perspective, PTmax is one of the most suitable temperature indicators for issuing the health risk warnings by heat in South Korea.

• Atmosphere
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• v.26 no.1
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• pp.59-72
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• 2016

The comparison of prediction errors in geopotential height, temperature, and precipitation forecasts is made quantitatively to evaluate medium-range forecast skills between Global Seasonal Forecasting System version 5 (GloSea5) and Unified Model (UM) in operation by Korea Meteorological Administration during 2014. In addition, the performances in prediction of sea surface temperature anomaly in NINO3.4 region, Madden and Julian Oscillation (MJO) index, and tropical storms in western north Pacific are evaluated. The result of evaluations appears that the forecast skill of UM with lower values of root-mean square error is generally superior to GloSea5 during forecast periods (0 to 12 days). The forecast error tends to increase rapidly in GloSea5 during the first half of the forecast period, and then it shows down so that the skill difference between UM and GloSea5 becomes negligible as the forecast time increases. Precipitation forecast of GloSea5 is not as bad as expected and the skill is comparable to that of UM during 10-day forecasts. Especially, in predictions of sea surface temperature in NINO3.4 region, MJO index, and tropical storms in western Pacific, GloSea5 shows similar or better performance than UM. Throughout comparison of forecast skills for main meteorological elements and weather extremes during medium-range, the effects of initial and model errors in atmosphere-ocean coupled model are verified and it is suggested that GloSea5 is useful system for not only seasonal forecasts but also short- and medium-range forecasts.

• Wind and Structures
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• v.30 no.4
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• pp.393-403
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• 2020

One of the growing concerns of the wind energy production is wind ramp events. To improve the wind ramp event forecasts, the nonlinear Kalman filter bias correction method was applied to 24-h wind speed forecasts issued from the WRF model at 70-m height in Zhangbei wind farm, Hebei Province, China for a two-year period. The Kalman filter shows the remarkable ability of improving forecast skill for real-time wind speed forecasts by decreasing RMSE by 32% from 3.26 m s_-1 to 2.21 m s_-1, reducing BIAS almost to zero, and improving correlation from 0.58 to 0.82. The bias correction improves the forecast skill especially in wind speed intervals sensitive to wind power prediction. The fact shows that the Kalman filter is especially suitable for wind power prediction. Moreover, the bias correction method performs well under abrupt weather transition. As to the overall performance for improving the forecast skill of ramp events, the Kalman filter shows noticeable improvements based on POD and TSS. The bias correction increases the POD score of up-ramps from 0.27 to 0.39 and from 0.26 to 0.38 for down-ramps. After bias correction, the TSS score is significantly promoted from 0.12 to 0.26 for up-ramps and from 0.13 to 0.25 for down-ramps.