• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.31 no.1
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• pp.37-53
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• 2024

In this study, flood records from 79 sites across Thailand were analyzed to estimate flood indices using the regional frequency analysis based on the L-moments method. Observation sites were grouped into homogeneous regions using k-means and Ward's clustering techniques. Among various distributions evaluated, the generalized extreme value distribution emerged as the most appropriate for certain regions. Regional growth curves were subsequently established for each delineated region. Furthermore, 20- and 100-year return values were derived to illustrate the recurrence intervals of maximum rainfall across Thailand. The predicted return values tend to increase at each site, which is associated with growth curves that could describe an increasing long-term predictive pattern. The findings of this study hold significant implications for water management strategies and the design of flood mitigation structures in the country.

• KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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• v.15 no.12
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• pp.4567-4583
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• 2021

This study proposes an analytical approximation algorithm based on extreme value theory (EVT) for the inverse of the power of the incomplete Gamma function. First, the Gumbel function is used to approximate the power of the incomplete Gamma function, and the corresponding inverse problem is transformed into the inversion of an exponential function. Then, using the tail equivalence theorem, the normalized coefficient of the general Weibull distribution function is employed to replace the normalized coefficient of the random variable following a Gamma distribution, and the approximate closed form solution is obtained. The effects of equation parameters on the algorithm performance are evaluated through simulation analysis under various conditions, and the performance of this algorithm is compared to those of the Newton iterative algorithm and other existing approximate analytical algorithms. The proposed algorithm exhibits good approximation performance under appropriate parameter settings. Finally, the performance of this method is evaluated by calculating the thresholds of space-time block coding and space-frequency block coding pattern recognition in multiple-input and multiple-output orthogonal frequency division multiplexing. The analytical approximation method can be applied to other related situations involving the maximum statistics of independent and identically distributed random variables following Gamma distributions.

• 한국데이터정보과학회:학술대회논문집
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• 2005.04a
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• pp.59-68
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• 2005

We consider the problem of estimating the scale and shape parameter of the Weibull distribution based on censored samples. we propose the approximate maximum likelihood estimators (AMLEs) of the scale and shape parameters in the Weibull distribution based on Type-II censored samples. We compare the proposed estimators in the sense of mean squared error (MSE).

• Journal of applied mathematics & informatics
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• v.31 no.3_4
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• pp.327-336
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• 2013

Generalized Pareto distributions play an important role in re-liability, extreme value theory, and other branches of applied probability and statistics. This family of distribution includes exponential distribution, Pareto distribution, and Power distribution. In this paper we establish some recurrences relations satisfied by the quotient moments of the upper record values from the generalized Pareto distribution. Further a char-acterization of this distribution based on recurrence relations of quotient moments of record values is presented.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.16 no.4
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• pp.1107-1117
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• 2005

We consider the problem of estimating the scale and shape parameters in the Weibull distribution based on censored samples. We propose the approximate maximum likelihood estimators (AMLEs) of the scale and shape parameters in the Weibull distribution based on Type-II censored samples. We compare the proposed estimators in the sense of the mean squared error (MSE).

• Bulletin of the Korean Mathematical Society
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• v.53 no.5
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• pp.1549-1566
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• 2016

Denote $M_n$ the maximum of n independent and identically distributed variables from the generalized short-tailed symmetric distribution. This paper shows the pointwise convergence rate of the distribution of $M_n$ to exp($\exp(-e^{-x})$) and the supremum-metric-based convergence rate as well.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.25 no.1
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• pp.15-27
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• 2018

Parametric method of flood frequency analysis involves fitting of a probability distribution to observed flood data. When record length at a given site is relatively shorter and hard to apply the asymptotic theory, an alternative distribution to the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution is often used. In this study, we consider the beta-P distribution (BPD) as an alternative to the GEV and other well-known distributions for modeling extreme events of small or moderate samples as well as highly skewed or heavy tailed data. The L-moments ratio diagram shows that special cases of the BPD include the generalized logistic, three-parameter log-normal, and GEV distributions. To estimate the parameters in the distribution, the method of moments, L-moments, and maximum likelihood estimation methods are considered. A Monte-Carlo study is then conducted to compare these three estimation methods. Our result suggests that the L-moments estimator works better than the other estimators for this model of small or moderate samples. Two applications to the annual maximum stream flow of Colorado and the rainfall data from cloud seeding experiments in Southern Florida are reported to show the usefulness of the BPD for modeling hydrologic events. In these examples, BPD turns out to work better than $beta-{\kappa}$, Gumbel, and GEV distributions.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.26 no.3
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• pp.483-494
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• 2013

The importance of financial risk management has been highlighted after several recent incidences of global financial crisis. One of the issues in financial risk management is how to measure the risk; currently, the most widely used risk measure is the Value at Risk(VaR). We can consider to estimate VaR using extreme value theory if the financial data have heavy tails as the recent market trend. In this paper, we study estimations of VaR using Peaks over Threshold(POT), which is a common method of modeling fat-tailed data using extreme value theory. To use POT, we first estimate parameters of the Generalized Pareto Distribution(GPD). Here, we compare three different methods of estimating parameters of GPD by comparing the performance of the estimated VaR based on KOSPI 5 minute-data. In addition, we simulate data from normal inverse Gaussian distributions and examine two parameter estimation methods of GPD. We find that the recent methods of parameter estimation of GPD work better than the maximum likelihood estimation when the kurtosis of the return distribution of KOSPI is very high and the simulation experiment shows similar results.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.22 no.6
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• pp.647-653
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• 2015

Extreme value theory concerns the distributional properties of the maximum of a random sample; subsequently, it has been significantly extended to stationary random sequences satisfying weak dependence restrictions. We focus on distributional mixing condition $D(u_n)$ and the Berman condition based on covariance among weak dependence restrictions. The former is assumed for general stationary sequences and the latter for stationary normal processes; however, both imply the same distributional limit of the maximum of the normal process. In this paper $D(u_n)$ condition is shown weaker than Berman's covariance condition. Examples are given where the Berman condition is satisfied but the distributional mixing is not.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.27 no.4
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• pp.1001-1012
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• 2016

It is well known that air pollutants exert a bad influence on human health. According to the United Nations Environment Program, 4.3 million people die from carbon monoxide and particulate matter annually from all over the world. Carbon monoxide is a toxic gas that is the most dangerous of the gas consisting of carbon and oxygen. In this paper, we used 1 hour, 6 hours, 12 hours, and 24 hours average carbon monoxide concentration data collected between 2004 and 2013 in Daegu Gyeongbuk area. Parameters of the generalized extreme value distribution were estimated by maximum likelihood estimation and L-moments estimation. An evalution of goodness of fitness also was performed. Since the number of samples were small, L-moment estimation turned out to be suitable for parameter estimation. We also calculated 5 year, 10 year, 20 year, and 40 year return level.