• Journal of Korea Society of Industrial Information Systems
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• v.12 no.1
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• pp.108-117
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• 2007

For a PERT network the sensitivity analyses are valuable tools for effective management and control of a project. In a previous article, a method was developed for the sensitivity analysis of the expected project completion time (${\mu}_{T}$) with respect to the expected duration of an activity (${\mu}_{i}$) under the assumption that the durations of activities are independent and normally distributed. In the present article, a method is presented for the sensitivity analysis of ${\mu}_{T}$ with respect to ${\mu}_{i}$ when the durations of activities are independent and follow discrete distributions, which utilizes the previous sensitivity analysis method with modifications. The accuracy of the proposed method is assessed using various example PERT networks, and the computational results indicate that the accuracy is comparable to that of direct Monte Carlo simulation.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers Conference
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• 2005.10a
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• pp.695-699
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• 2005

Propriety of PERT network for planning and management in large-scale systems was investigated. We also review the example of small and middle size system to compare the appropriateness of PERT analysis method. For comparing the appropriateness of PERT analysis method the calculation time, and the variances were estimated. Eventualy, we proposed the criteria of PERT analysis method for planning and management large-scale systems.

• Journal of the Korea Institute of Building Construction
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• v.18 no.6
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• pp.595-602
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• 2018

Network-based scheduling methods can be classified into CPM method and PERT method. In the network scheduling chart, critical path can be estimated by performing the forward calculation and the backward calculation though the paths in the network chart. In PERT method, however, it is unreasonable to simply estimate the critical path by adding the sum of the activity durations in a specific path, since it does not incorporate probabilistic concept of PERT. The critical path of a PERT network can change according to the target period and deviation, and in some cases, the expected time of the critical path may not be the path with longest expected time. Based on this concept, this study proposes a technique to derive the most-likely critical path by comparing the sum of estimated time with the target time. It also proposes a method of systematically deriving all alternate paths for a network of repetitive activities. Case studies demonstrated that the most-likely critical path is not a fixed path and may vary according to the target period and standard deviation. It is expected that the proposed method of project duration forecasting will be useful in construction environment with varying target date situations.

• Cement
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• s.37
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• pp.4-11
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• 1970

최근 급속히 팽창된 산업 구조와 이에 따른 업무량의 증가는 종래의 관리기술로서는 이를 성공적으로 처리할 수 없게 되었으며 아울러 인간의 미래조작능력의 증대와 기업구상력의 개발, 사회변동에 대비한 예측적인 계획의 수립 등 관리기능의 신장은 새로운 관리기법을 요구하게 되었으므로 PERT/CPM 수법이 신관리기법의 하나로 등장하게 되었다. PERT/CPM 이란 Program Evaluation Review and Technique, Critical Path Method 의 약자로서 우리말로는 계획수립 집행 및 평가로 번역되는데 이의 직역은 종속 및 총합 $\ulcorner$시스템$\lrcorner$ 과업의 동시진행 및 집중관리라 할 수 있는 것으로 시간과 비용을 절감하려는 기법인 것이다. 또한 PERT 기법은 복잡한 작업형태를 상호관련성있는 Network로 구성하고 제종속작업을 하나의 통일된 목표로 진행시키는 것을 의미한다. 이와 같은 PERT/CPM 기법은 제한된 자원의 효율적인 투자 및 관리와 불필요한 시간과 비용을 제거하여 준다. 현재 정부(경제기획원)는 PERT/CPM 제도를 도입하여 건설공사에 대한 예산관리제도를 설정중에 있으며 민간 및 정부투자기관으로서 현대건설주식회사와 한국전력주식회사와 이미 PERT/CPM 제도화방책을 연구기관에 위촉하여 제2단계적용을 시도하고 있는 것은 시대적 당위성에 따른 타당한 전망이라 하겠다. 거금 한국양회공업협회가 본제도의 도입 적용을 추진하기 위한 일련의 조사활동을 시작한 것은 시멘트 공업계의 새로운 경영관리체제를 모색하고 업계를 선도하는 중요한 전환점이 되리라 믿는다.

• Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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• v.5 no.1
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• pp.73-88
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• 1980

It is hoped that this paper may be a contribution to the solution of further problems arising from the gap between theory and practice. The practical cases in the application of PERT.CPM in Korea was investigated and studied. And the results are presented. These examinations of the actual cases led to a conclusion that in order to apply effectively PERT.CPM and to diminish the gap between the planning and actuality, emphasis must be given to the second factors rather than the first one shown on the network diagram, in the course of the control of the work. These second factors are PERT Status Analysis Report, PERT Emergency and PERT Count Down etc. They are the best methods that can eliminate difficult elements on the critical path, by making the maximum use of slack time.

• Journal of the Korea Society for Simulation
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• v.9 no.4
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• pp.67-75
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• 2000

Often system analysts are interested in the estimation of percentile for system performance. For instance, in PERT network system, the percentile that the project. Typically the control variate method is used to reduce the variability of mean response using the correlation between the response and the control variates with a little additional cost during the course of simulation. In the same spirit, we apply this method to estimate the percentile of project completion time in PERT system, and evaluate the efficiency of the controlled estimator for its percentile.1 Simulation results indicate that the controlled estimators are more effective in reducing the variances of estimators than the simple estimators, however those tend to a little underestimate the percentiles for some critical values. We need more simulation experiments to examine such a kind of bias problem. We expect this research presents a step forward in the area of variance reduction techniques of stochastic simulation.

• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.52 no.2
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• pp.27-34
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• 2010

The PERT is one form of probabilistic network and can have many critical paths in the concept of each work has dispersed complete time. Here we propose two operators to estimate the probabilistic complete time about serial and parallel connections, and in each junction node, probability of critical path is estimated by new operator. Then we compare the estimated results with robability of critical path with deterministic CPM and Monte Carlo simulation (MCS). Our results show that all paths in PERT can be critical path, and proposed operators are efficient and accurate probabilistic calculators compare MCS result.

• The Bulletin of The Korean Astronomical Society
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• v.37 no.2
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• pp.174.1-174.1
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• 2012

현재 인공위성 개발 프로젝트들을 계획하고 일정계획을 수립하기위해 간트차트가 널리 활용되고 있다. 간트차트는 프로젝트의 각 작업들이 언제 시작하고 종료되는지에 대한 작업 일정을 막대 도표를 이용하여 표시하는 프로젝트 일정표로 다양한 형태로 변경하여 사용할 수 있으나 작업경로를 표시할 수 없으며 계획의 변화에 대한 적응성이 약한 단점이 있다. 또한 일목요연하게 눈으로 보여줄 수 있으나 효과적인 프로젝트 관리에 중요한 활동 사이의 어떤 관계에 대한 정보를 주지 못한다. 인공위성개발과 같은 복잡한 프로젝트에 대해 간트차트와 더불어 PERT(Program evaluation and review technique)와 CPM(critical path method)과 같은 네트워크 도(Network Diagram)와 함께 사용될 수 있도록 그 이론과 활용방안에 대해 기술하고자 한다. PERT와 CPM은 큰 프로젝트를 계획하고 조정하기 위해 폭넓게 사용되는 두 가지 기법이다. PERT와 CPM을 사용하면 프로젝트 활동에 대한 그래프를 통한 도시, 프로젝트 소요시간 추정, 프로젝트 완료시간 준수를 위해 중요한 활동의 식별, 전체 프로젝트에 대한 지연 없이 가능한 각 활동의 지연시간 추정과 같은 이점이 있다. PERT와 CPM은 독립적으로 개발되었지만, 많은 공통점이 있다. 더 나아가서 둘 사이에 원래 존재했던 차이점은 많은 부분은 서로의 특징을 도입하면서 거의 사라졌다. 실제적으로 볼 때, 두 기법은 지금 같은 기법이며, 기술된 특징과 절차는 PERT분석 뿐 아니라 CPM 분석에도 적용될 수 있을 것이다.

• Journal of Korean Port Research
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• v.14 no.2
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• pp.155-163
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• 2000

A discrete system has interpreted by using the network model, and PERT network is one of these methods. For the purpose of analysing the real system, it is necessary to measure the parameter of the real system. And system identification problem is to assume the parameter of a real system when we get to know the system model, the input data and output data. System identification method has been only developed to a system of which a structure has expressed a differential equation or a polynomial expression. But it has been scarcely developed yet in that case of network model. The aim of this paper is to examine a changes when new system is introduced to the present system. The changes are as follows : how the present system will be changed, when the changes will be happened. In this paper, genetic algorithm is used to assume the parameter.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
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• 1999.10a
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• pp.101-108
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• 1999

A discrete system has interpreted by using the network model, and PERT network is one of these methods. For the purpose of analysing the real system. it is necessary to measure the parameter of the real system. And system identification problem is to assume the parameter of a real system when we get to know the system model, the input data and output data. System identification method has been only developed to a system of which a structure has expressed a differential equation or a polynomial expression. But it has been scarcely developed yet in that case of network model. The aim of this paper is to examine a changes when new system isn introduced to the present system, The changes are as follows: how the present system will be changed, when the changes will be happened. In this paper, genetic algorithm is used to assume the parameter.