• Proceedings of the Korean Institute Of Construction Engineering and Management
• /
• 2004.11a
• /
• pp.224-227
• /
• 2004

As a project progresses, it is well known that construction manager has to define the contingency for the expected project cost, which is used as a buffer for uncertainty. In this study, we mention uncertainty as the amount of likelihood that is difficult or impossible to predict project cost. From the completed work package, we obtain the true cost value, and this information is technically good data for estimating the realistic contingency of work packages to be accomplished. Based upon this historical information, construction manager recomputes the contingency for the remaining works. Conditional probability theory is often useful for re-estimating one of the remaining project progress as the true cost of the completed works can be different from the planned cost. As a project is progressing, true value is really important to predict the realistic project budget and to decrease the uncertainty. In this study, we gave applied conditional probability theory to estimating project contingency supposing a project that consists of fire work packages, provide the fundamental framework for setting and controlling project contingency.

• Journal of Digital Convergence
• /
• v.14 no.10
• /
• pp.159-166
• /
• 2016

Recent public information project, which has been organized mainly to large companies is a situation that is being reorganized to small and medium-sized systems integration company. However, many of the small and medium-sized companies lack knowledge of the systematic risk management. Thus, in connection with the revenue, it involves a number of problems. Therefore, in this paper, we present a risk element that occurs mainly in the field of the project, providing a model for measuring the risk element by risk level costs associated with this. Through the convergence, we aim at providing a management system that is able to make the project successfully accomplished, predicting the risk that occurs in advance to pursue the project; Based on the proposed model, it is possible to secure a proper size of reserve fund so it is expected to enable companies to ensure the cost of risk analysis.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
• /
• v.2 no.2 s.6
• /
• pp.98-108
• /
• 2001

This research proposes a new risk analysis model in order to guarantee successful performance of construction projects. The risk analysis model, called Construction Risk Analysis System(CRAS), is introduced to help contractors Identify project risks through RBS and through the procedures in risk analysis model. The proposed CRAS model consists of three phases. First step, CRAS model can help contractors decide whether or not they bid for a project by analysing risks involved in the project. Second step, the influence diagraming, decision tree and Monte Carlo simulation are used as tools to analyze and evaluate project risks quantitatively. Third step, Monte Carlo simulation is used to assess risk for groups of activities with probabilistic branching and calendars. Consequently, it will help contractors identify risk elements in their projects and quantify the impact of risk on project time and cost.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
• /
• v.13 no.5
• /
• pp.12-24
• /
• 2012

The Risks in undertaking a construction project comes from many sources and often involves many participants in the project. This study has identified various kinds of risks, assessed the risk factors quantitatively and suggested risk management method for response pertinent in Design Build(Turn Key)type of projects in Korean context. A questionnaire was designed comprising of 145 possible risks in all types of construction projects. The population from owner, consultant and contractor groups was asked to indicate the risks applicable in DB projects. 25 numbers of critical risks in DB projects were identified and further analyzed for reveling inherent relationship between them through factor analysis. Factor analysis revealed 8 risk factors in DB projects. Construction site related, contract related and design related risk factor consisted about 72% of total risk weight. It has been found out about 6%, while considering the mutual dependency, it is about 10% of total cost of DB project. Therefore, It is suggested that 6% to 10% of construction amount as contingency has to be made provision for risk responses in the DB projects.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
• /
• v.20 no.3
• /
• pp.22-30
• /
• 2019

The purpose of this study is to derive basic data of the Guaranteed Maximum Price(GMP) process and to present specimens that can be used at the time of execution of CM at Risk project in South Korea. CM at Risk project is issued in South Korea, but the actual data is lack. On the other hand, CM at Risk project is universalized and the market of the CM at Risk is steadily growing. Because of that, in this study, The United States cases was selected as a sample. GMP consists of CM's fee, CM contingency, project direct cost, project indirect cost, allowance. GMP negotiations are performed before the end of design completion, and after 3 rounds of estimation comparison, preliminary GMP is confirmed. GMP can be multiple contract and it is useful for Procurement of long lead materials and early construction. If the actual cost is lower than expected GMP, sharing of the saving is an option since the conflict of interests between the client and the contractor can occur.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Building Construction Conference
• /
• 2004.05a
• /
• pp.113-117
• /
• 2004

We need the contingency cost in order to deal with the uncertainty to be accompanied inevitably at the construction and an every kind risk not to forecast in advance. And also the contingency colt needed for the change order and we need it for reduction of the delay and reduce the trouble between owner and constructor. This study, through checking and analyzing the risk factor, in the step of domestic construction, suggests optimal management reserve to specific business about the contract type and the scale. The main results of this research are summarized as follow. First, I investigated the recognition about the contingency cost, grasped the risk to be happened at the construction step and found out the frequency occurrence, through making up question to engineer are carrying out their job in the domestic construction. Second, I computed optimal contingency cost rate by the statistics investigation, and proposed an improvement plan and problem when compute a contingency cost.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
• /
• v.18 no.3
• /
• pp.105-116
• /
• 2017

In recent years, large Korean construction companies have suffered serious losses in their overseas business. Many practitioners and researchers have analyzed causes of cost overrun in these projects. However, these arguments have not been empirically verified based on acutal project cases. This study investigated cost overrun rate, contingency, allowance, predicted risk before bidding, and actual and residual risk after award in the 67 international infrastructure projects conducted by 13 large construction companies. The causes of cost overruns are derived as follows. First, they identified the possibility of cost overrun to some extent before the bidding, but did not reflect the enough risk money to bid price. In particular, this behavior was more severe in badly cost-overrun projects. Second, the causes of cost overrun were more influenced by external environmental risk than internal capability risk. However, the internal risk in badly cost-overrun projects was relatively high compared to cost-underrun projects. Third, badly cost-overrun projects failed to mitigate risk. However, cost underrun projects were affected more by low exterior risk conditions than by well mitigated risk. This study provides more informed knowledge in controlling project costs in international infrastructure projects.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute Of Construction Engineering and Management
• /
• autumn
• /
• pp.485-490
• /
• 2003

Nowadays the rapid change in construction environment getting more globalized and complicated has caused lots of unexpected risks from inside and out of the country, so more sophisticated construction management strategies are being strongly needed. This paper suggests a risk management model with which we can estimate the appropriate contingency by quantifying the amount of probable risks immanent in large construction projects, which have a high degree of uncertainty in the anticipation of the total construction cost. To develop the model, the risk factors that make cost variations are elicited based on the real data of the contingencies assigned to the past projects. Furthermore, the influential relationship of risk factors is structured by applying the CRM(Cost Risk Model) which is the synthetic model of Monte Carlo Simulation, Influence Diagram and Decision Tree. The ultimate outcome of this research can by validated by tile case study with a large construction project performed.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
• /
• v.20 no.5
• /
• pp.125-136
• /
• 2019

This study investigated checked risk level before bid, actual risk level after award, contingency, and cost growth rate in the 124 international construction projects executed by Korean major companies. This study conducted comparative analysis by product type using rank analysis, ANOVA and correlation analysis. As a result, plant and civil projects have worse risk level than architecture projects not only in before bid but also in after award. Especially, country risk is the worst risk in both plant and civil projects, followed by project risk and capability risk. Also, although plant and civil projects reflect more contingency than architecture projects, contingency is not correlated with the checked risk level before bid. Lastly, the cost growth rate is correlated with the actual risk level in all product types. This study is expected to support in planning better practical risk management for international construction projects.

• Journal of Science Education
• /
• v.37 no.2
• /
• pp.310-322
• /
• 2013

The college of education should support pre-service science teachers to develop various abilities as a teacher, in which the teaching ability is the most fundamental one. This study is the result of a longitudinal research project following the processes that pre-service science teachers develop their teaching ability in a college of education. The data gathered include movie clips of seminar presentation, teaching demonstration, secondary school science experiment, and classes in the practicum. In order to analyze the teaching abilities in various context, a framework was developed. The framework consists of 'content,' 'progress,' and 'verbal/nonverbal' with which the movie clips of 5 pre-service science teachers were analyzed. The teaching abilities of pre-service science teachers showed overall development, that include the understanding of learners and curriculum in the 'content,' the time-management and the interaction with learners in the 'progress,' and the nonverbal behavior in the 'verbal/nonverbal.' The implications were discussed on the education in the college of education, such as the increase of teaching opportunities for pre-service science teachers and the support for those opportunities.