Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management (한국건설관리학회논문집)

Korea Institute of Construction Engineering and Management (한국건설관리학회)
권호 표지
DOI QR코드

DOI QR Code

A Comparative Analysis of Risk Assessment Depending on International Project Types

플랜트, 건축, 토목 공종별 해외건설 리스크평가 비교분석

  • Baek, Seungwon (Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Yonsei University) ;
  • Han, Seung-Heon (Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Yonsei University) ;
  • Jung, Wooyong (Department of Nuclear Power Plant Engineering, KEPCO International Nuclear Graduate School)
  • Received : 2019.07.31
  • Accepted : 2019.08.26
  • Published : 2019.09.30
Download PDF
⟨ Previous Next ⟩

Abstract

This study investigated checked risk level before bid, actual risk level after award, contingency, and cost growth rate in the 124 international construction projects executed by Korean major companies. This study conducted comparative analysis by product type using rank analysis, ANOVA and correlation analysis. As a result, plant and civil projects have worse risk level than architecture projects not only in before bid but also in after award. Especially, country risk is the worst risk in both plant and civil projects, followed by project risk and capability risk. Also, although plant and civil projects reflect more contingency than architecture projects, contingency is not correlated with the checked risk level before bid. Lastly, the cost growth rate is correlated with the actual risk level in all product types. This study is expected to support in planning better practical risk management for international construction projects.

본 연구는 국내 대형 건설 기업이 수행한 124건의 해외사업에 대해 입찰 전 예측 리스크, 수주 후 실제 리스크, 예비비 반영률, 원가 상승률 등을 조사하였다. 이를 기반으로 플랜트, 건축, 토목 공종별 예측 리스크 수준, 실제 리스크 수준, 입찰 전 예측 리스크와 예비비 간 관계, 실제 리스크와 원가 상승률의 상관성을 분석하여 다음과 같은 결론을 얻었다. 첫째, 플랜트와 토목 사업은 건축 사업에 비해 예측 리스크와 실제 리스크 수준이 높았다. 특히, 플랜트와 토목 사업에서는 국가 리스크가 가장 높았으나 건축사업에서는 프로젝트 리스크가 가장 높았던 것으로 나타났다. 둘째, 플랜트와 토목 사업이 건축 사업보다 예비비를 많이 설정하였으나 입찰 전 예측 리스크 수준과는 상관성이 없었다. 이는 우리 기업의 예비비 산정에 문제가 있음을 내포하고 있다. 셋째, 세 개 공종 모두 실제 리스크 발생 수준과 원가 상승률 사이에 유의미한 상관성이 존재하는 것으로 나타났다. 이는 리스크 관리가 실행원가 관리에 중요한 요소임을 보여준다. 본 연구에서 도출된 결과는 국내 기업들의 공종별로 차별화된 보다 실전적인 리스크 관리를 지원할 것으로 기대된다.

Keywords

References

  1. An, B.H., Kim, J.E., and Kim, Y.S. (2013). "The analysis of the weights of country risk by participants of overseas construction projects." Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, KICEM, 14(2), pp. 150-159. https://doi.org/10.6106/KJCEM.2013.14.2.150
  2. Bingham, E., and Gibson Jr, G.E. (2016). "Infrastructure project scope definition using project definition rating index." Journal of Management in Engineering, 33(2), 04016037. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)ME.1943-5479.0000483
  3. CII (Construction Industry Institute). (2003). "International project risk assessment (IPRA) tool, implementation resource." CII Research Report 181-2, University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX.
  4. ENR (Engineering News Records). (2018). "The top 250 international contractors." (Sep. 17, 2018).
  5. Han, S.H., and Diekmann, J.E. (2001). "Approaches for making risk-based go/no-go decision for international projects." Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 127(4), pp. 300-308. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9364(2001)127:4(300)
  6. Han, S.H., Kim, D.Y., and Kim, H. (2007a). "Predicting profit performance for selecting candidate international construction projects." Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 133(6), pp. 425-436. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9364(2007)133:6(425)
  7. Han, S.H., Park, S.H., Kim, D.Y., Kim, H., and Kang, Y.W. (2007b). "Causes of bad profit in overseas construction projects." Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 133(12), pp. 932-943. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9364(2007)133:12(932)
  8. Hwang, G.W., Park, C.Y., Jang, W.S., Han, S.H., and Kang, S.Y. (2016). "Development acceptable risk model for international construction projects - focusing on small and medium construction companies-." Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, KICEM, 17(3), pp. 90-97. https://doi.org/10.6106/KJCEM.2016.17.3.090
  9. Jang, W., Han, S.H., and Park, H. (2015a). "A stage-gate integrated risk control system for LNG plant projects: Focusing on the design phase." Journal of Natural Gas Science and Engineering, 22, pp. 437-446. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jngse.2014.12.018
  10. Jang, W., Lee, J.K., Lee, J., and Han, S.H. (2015b). "Naive Bayesian classifier for selecting good/bad projects during the early stage of international construction bidding decisions." Mathematical Problems in Engineering, 2015, pp. 1-12.
  11. Jung, W., and Han, S.H. (2017). "Which risk management is most crucial for controlling project cost?" Journal of Management in Engineering, 33(5), 04017029. https://doi.org/10.1061/(asce)me.1943-5479.0000547
  12. Jung, W.Y., and Han, S.H. (2018). "Cause analysis of cost overruns in international infrastructure project conducted by Korean contractors." Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, KICEM, 18(3), pp. 105-116. https://doi.org/10.6106/KJCEM.2017.18.3.105
  13. Kang, J.H. (2018). "Current international construction market trend and forecast for 2019." The Export-Import Bank of Korea, (July 29, 2019).
  14. Kim, D.Y. (2016). "Risk-based decision model for contingency estimation of large construction projects." Journal of Decision Science, The Korea Society of Decision Science, 24(2), pp. 11-26.
  15. Kim, D.Y., Han, S.H., Kim, H., and Park, H. (2009). "Structuring the prediction model of project performance for international construction projects: A comparative analysis." Expert Systems with Applications, 36(2), pp. 1961-1971. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eswa.2007.12.048
  16. Kim, J.K. (2017). "Current Construction Market Trend and Forecast for 2017 of Middle East Region." K-BUILD Journal, ICAK, 2017(9), pp. 24-35.
  17. Laryea, S., and Hughes, W. (2008). "How contractors price risk in bids: theory and practice." Construction Management and Economics, 26(9), pp. 911-924. https://doi.org/10.1080/01446190802317718
  18. Lee, J.K., Han, S.H., Jang, W., and Jung, W. (2018). "Win-win strategy for sustainable relationship between general contractors and subcontractors in international construction projects." KSCE Journal of Civil Engineering, 22(2), pp. 428-439. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12205-017-1613-7
  19. Lee, J.Y., and Kim, Y.S. (2014). "Analysis of major delay factors of overseas building projects based on FMEA - Focus on design phase of plants in Middle East and Asia -." Proceedings of KICEM Annual Conference, KICEM, 11, pp. 18-21.
  20. Lee, K.P., and Yoo, W.S. (2018). "Analysis of international project management capability of Korean construction companies." Construction Issue Focus, CERIK, 10, pp. 1-34.
  21. Lee, M.K. (2019a). "How to approach re-opening middle east market." The Bell, (July 29, 2019).
  22. Lee, Y.K. (2019b). "Recent International Construction Market Trend and Forecast for 2019." Construction Economy, Korea Research Institute For Human Settlements, 86(1), pp. 13-22.
  23. Mahalingam, A., and Levitt, R.E. (2007). "Institutional theory as a framework for analyzing conflicts on global projects." Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 133(7), pp. 517-528. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9364(2007)133:7(517)
  24. PMI (Project Management Institute). (2008). Guide to the project management body of knowledge, Newton Square, PA.
  25. Song, Y.H., Lee, J.S., Kim, J.H., and Kim, J.J. (2007). "Analysis of the importnace of risk factors through the Asian development project." Journal of the Architectural Institute of Korea - Structure and Construction, Architectural Institute of Korea, 23(6), pp. 145-152.
  26. Tang, W., Qiang, M., Duffield, C.F., Young, D.M., and Lu, Y. (2007). "Risk management in the Chinese construction industry." Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 133(12), pp. 944-956. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9364(2007)133:12(944)
  27. Utama, W.P., Chan, A.P., Zahoor, H., and Gao, R. (2016). "Review of research trend in international construction projects: a bibliometric analysis." Construction Economics and Building, 16(2), pp. 71-82.
  28. Wood, G.D., and Ellis, R.C. (2003). "Risk management practices of leading UK cost consultants. Engineering." Construction and Architectural Management, 10(4), pp. 254-262. https://doi.org/10.1108/09699980310489960
  29. Yang, I.C. (2014). "Competitiveness analysis of the Korean construction companies in the international construction market and its implications." Korea Development Bank, (July 29, 2019).
  30. Yoo, W.S., and Kim, W.Y. (2015). "Development of International Construction Project Risk Index (IPRI) and its implications." Construction Issue Focus, CERIK, 7, pp. 1-37.
  31. Yoo, W.S., Kim W.Y., and Lee, Y.H. (2014). "Current state of risk management capability of Korean construction companies and its applications." Construction Issue Focus, CERIK, 14, pp. 1-29.