• The Journal of the Convergence on Culture Technology
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• v.7 no.4
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• pp.607-612
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• 2021

This study estimated the impact of the shock of housing price increase on the total fertility rate and the contribution of each variable to changes in the TFR. This study is differentiated by estimating the contribution rate of each variable to the fertility rate through the Shapley decomposition and the panel VAR's forecast error variance decomposition, which previous studies have not attempted. The main results of this study are as follows. First, the decline in the TFR in Korea has been strongly influenced by the recent decline in the total fertility rate, and this influence is expected to continue in the future. In the case of housing costs, in the past, housing sales prices had a relatively small contribution to changes in the total fertility rate compared to the jeonse prices, but their influence is expected to increase in the long term in the future. It has been demonstrated that private education expenses other than housing sale price and Jeonse price also acted as a major cause of the decline in the total fertility rate.

• Journal of the Korean Regional Science Association
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• v.36 no.1
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• pp.37-50
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• 2020

Estimating investment profits of real estate is critical to understand real estate markets and create relevant policy as real estate market and capital market combines closely. Thus, this study applied the concept of Tobin's Q to estimate investment profits for apartments as well as row-houses and multi-family homes in Seoul from 2010 to 2018. Investment profits were estimated by two approaches: subtracting the replacement cost from the transaction price and calculating ratio of the transaction price to the replacement cost, respectively. The spatio-temporal changes in investment profits were apparent in apartments compared with row-houses and multi-family homes. As a result of analyzing the spatial econometrics models, the investment profit was higher in the area with high density and new developments regardless of the housing types. The framework and key findings would be the effective reference to understand residential investment behavior, create relevant housing policy, introduce value capture of windfall, measure regional competitiveness, and estimate housing bubble.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.15 no.4
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• pp.86-94
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• 2014

Since the late 1990s, mixed-use apartment, armed with high qualities and large scales with a high ratio of TFA(Total Floor Area) have been continuously provided accommodating exclusive community facilities along with high-tech securities, not to mention excellent skyline view. However, especially in mid-small cities, there have been only a few supplies. As a result, none of the mixed-use housing provided by high-end brands has ever been built in non-metropolitan area. But constructors couldn't plan the projects which aims to build the mixed-use apartment in local city, because they couldn't get the basic data or advanced research for feasibility analysis. Therefore, to suggest the useful price for mixed-use apartment supply project of local city, the PSM(Price Sensitivity Method) widely used for determining the price preferences as a market research tools has been applied. As analysis results, the estimated price of mixed-use apartment is 10.8% higher than general apartment, and mixed-use apartment has lower price sensitivity than general apartment. As price determinants, the age, education level and family size influence on UTP in significant level. It is expected that these research findings can be applied for establishing the solid marketing strategy of mixed-use apartment development project in local city.

• International Area Studies Review
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• v.16 no.1
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• pp.3-27
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• 2012

This paper adopts recently developed panel unit root test that is cross-sectionally robust. Cointegration test is also used to find whether regional house prices are in line with gross regional domestic production (GRDP) in the long run in Korea during 1989-2009. Based on the panel VECM and the panel ARDL models, we examine causal relationships among the variables and estimate the long-run elasticity. We find evidence of cointegration and bidirectional causal relationships between regional house prices and GRDP. The results of long-run estimates, using both fixed effect and ARDL models, show that house prices positively and significantly influence on the GRDP and vice versa. Together with these results, the findings of ARDL-ECM imply that there exists a long-run equilibrium relationship between house prices and regional economic variables even if there is a possibility of short-run deviation from its long-run path.

• Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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• v.51 no.2
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• pp.219-233
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• 2016

In social science fields, statistical models are used almost exclusively for causal explanation, and explanatory modeling has been a mainstream until now. In contrast, predictive modeling has been rare in the fields. Hence, we focus on constructing the predictive non-parametric model, instead of the explanatory model. Gangnam-gu, Seoul was chosen as a study area and we collected single-family house sales data sold between 2011 and 2014. We applied non-parametric models proposed in machine learning area including generalized additive model(GAM), random forest, multivariate adaptive regression splines(MARS) and support vector machines(SVM). Models developed recently such as MARS and SVM were found to be superior in predictive power for house price estimation. Finally, spatial autocorrelation was accounted for in the non-parametric models additionally, and the result showed that their predictive power was enhanced further. We hope that this study will prompt methodology for property price estimation to be extended from traditional parametric models into non-parametric ones.

• Journal of Cadastre & Land InformatiX
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• v.48 no.2
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• pp.197-211
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• 2018

We conducted this research to examine how well regional housing prices are suited to use as an alternative to conventional census-based regional deprivation indices in health and medical geography studies. To examine the relative performance of mean regional housing prices compared to conventional census-based regional deprivation indices, we compared several multilevel logistic regression models, where the first level was individuals and the second was health districts in the Seoul Metropolitan Area (SMA) in Korea, for the sake of adjusting the regional clustering tendency of unknown factors. In these models, we predicted two dichotomous variables that represented individuals' after-lunch tooth brushing behavior and use of dental floss by individual characteristics and regional indices. Then, we compared the relative predictive performance of the models using the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC). The results from the estimations showed that mean regional housing prices and census-based deprivation indices were correlated with the two types of dental health behavior in a statistical sense. The results also revealed that the model with mean regional housing prices showed smaller AIC and BIC compared with other models with conventional census-based deprivation indices. These results imply that it is possible for housing prices summarized using aerial units to be used as an alternative to conventional census-based deprivation indices when the census variables employed cannot properly reflect the characteristics of the aerial units.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.17 no.3
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• pp.108-115
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• 2016

The price determinant for land investment depends on the internal information process and subjective decision making by management in general. Accordingly, the systematic frame to determine the feasibility of investment price to the public residential land for multi-housing development by private sector has not been proposed. The purpose of this study is to explore the frame to determine the investment price for public residential land from the perspectives of land attribute and apartment market factor. Multiple regression has been implemented to confirm the eligibility of proposed model. Research findings indicate that the land area, floor area ratio, coverage ratio, location have been identified as the total land cost determinant, and for the determinants for floor area land cost, the ratio of apartment, sale price, rent price, etc, have been identified. This research intends to provide the basis for land providers to predict the land value as a raw material in market and present the indicators for land buyers to review the price adequacy for the investment.

• Korea Real Estate Review
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• v.28 no.1
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• pp.79-90
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• 2018

The purpose of this study was to estimate the pricing factors of residential lands in new cities by estimating the pricing model of residential lands. For this purpose, hedonic equations for each quantile of the conditional distribution of land prices were estimated using quantile regression methods and the sale price date of Jangyu New Town in Gimhae. In this study, a quantile regression method that models the relation between a set of explanatory variables and each quantile of land price was adopted. As a result, the differences in the effects of the characteristics by price quantile were confirmed. The number of years that elapsed after the completion of land construction is the quadratic effect in the model because its impact may give rise to a non-linear price pattern. Age appears to decrease the price until certain years after the construction, and increases the price afterward. In the estimation of the quantile regression, land age appears to have a statistically significant impact on land price at the traditional level, and the turning point appears to be shorter for the low quantiles than for the higher quantiles. The positive effects of the use of land for commercial and residential purposes were found to be the biggest. Land demand is preferred if there are more than two roads on the ground. In this case, the amount of sunshine will improve. It appears that the shape of a square wave is preferred to a free-looking land. This is because the square land is favorable for development. The variables of the land used for commercial and residential purposes have a greater impact on low-priced residential lands. This is because such lands tend to be mostly used for rental housing and have different characteristics from residential houses. Residential land prices have different characteristics depending on the price level, and it is necessary to consider this in the evaluation of the collateral value and the drafting of real estate policy.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.7 no.5
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• pp.94-104
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• 2006

The changed Korean government law associated with the public apartment housing supply, so called the $^{\circ}{\AE}$Apartment Sales Price $Cap^{\circ}{\phi}$, requires new system for estimating construction cost in order to set appropriate price. A model apartment project was carefully designed and its construction cost were analyzed in many different ways. Based on the analyses outcomes, 1,028,000 Won/m2 (excluding cost for underground parking lot) is the most appropriate Price Cap for a smaller than $85{\beta}{\geq}$ apartment unit. Further, it was revealed that the price have to be adjusted reflecting such factors as underground size; structural system; external complex quality; and consumer preferences. Findings from this study will enable the Korean government to realize faster and better application of the related laws. The methodology for obtaining appropriate apartment construction cost will also benefit for future researchers.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.46 no.3
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• pp.277-285
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• 2013

The purpose of this research is to evaluate the scenic value of the Gyungin Ara waterway in real estate prices. Apart from the multi-functionality such as transportation of passengers and freight, prevention of floods, and provision of leisure areas, the Ara waterway possesses a scenic function which offers people esthetic value through unique and beautiful scenery. This scenic function is an externality for apartment residents living nearby. The applied methodology for this research is the Hedonic Price Model (HPM) which creates a cause and effect model between real estate prices and attributes. Variables such as apartment sale prices, complex characteristics, location characteristics, timely characteristics have been deduced through data collected from a total of 4,207 households that have experienced actual transactions during the same period, all located within the scenic benefit boundaries of the waterway. Landscape variable has been derived from algorithm designed by a combination of digital map and Google Mapview. The scenic value of the waterway estimated through the application of HPM on these variables is 165,000 Won per area (pyeong). The regional asset enhancing effect caused by the landscape view of the waterway is estimated to be 89.1 billion won.