• Bulletin of the Korean Mathematical Society
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• v.55 no.4
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• pp.1241-1261
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• 2018

We derive discrete time model of the geometric fractional Brownian motion. It provides numerical pricing scheme of financial derivatives when the market is driven by geometric fractional Brownian motion. With the convergence analysis, we guarantee the convergence of Monte Carlo simulations. The strong convergence rate of our scheme has order H which is Hurst parameter. To obtain our model we need to convert Wick product term of stochastic differential equation into Wick free discrete equation through Malliavin calculus but ours does not include Malliavin derivative term. Finally, we include several numerical experiments for the option pricing.

• Proceedings of the Korean Information Science Society Conference
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• 2005.11a
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• pp.1006-1008
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• 2005

최근에 계산금융 분야에서 복잡한 수식을 이용한 연산이 증가하고 있다. 그리고 계산금융 분야에서 몬테카를로 시뮬레이션은 대표적인 계산방법 중에 하나이다. 그러나 몬테카를로 시뮬레이션은 많은 반복연산을 수행하므로 연산시간이 오래 걸리는 문제점이 있다. 이러한 문제점을 해결하기 위하여 본 논문에서는 몬테카를로 시뮬레이션과 스프레드시트를 병렬로 처리하였다. 또한 실험을 통하여 병렬 스프레드시트의 계산 노드가 증가함에 따라 파생상품의 계산 시간이 단축되는 것을 보였다.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.25 no.1
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• pp.155-167
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• 2014

This study uses a continuous autoregressive (CAR) model to analyze daily average temperature in six Korean metropolitan cities. Data period is Jan. 1, 1954 to Dec. 31, 2010 covering 57 years. Using a relative long time series reveals that the linear time trend components are all statistically significant in the six cities, which was not shown in previous studies. Particularly the plus sign of its coefficient implies the effect on Korea of the global warming. Unit-root test results are that the temperature time series are stationary without unit-root. It turns out that CAR(3) is suitable for stochastic component of the daily temperature. Since developing suitable continuous stochastic model of the underlying weather related variables is crucial in pricing the weather derivatives, the results in this study will likely prove useful in further future studies on pricing weather derivatives.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics
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• v.23 no.1
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• pp.19-30
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• 2019

In this paper, we develop an accurate explicit finite difference method for the two-dimensional Black-Scholes equation with a hybrid boundary condition. In general, the correlation term in multi-asset options is problematic in numerical treatments partially due to cross derivatives and numerical boundary conditions at the far field domain corners. In the proposed hybrid boundary condition, we use a linear boundary condition at the boundaries where at least one asset is zero. After updating the numerical solution by one time step, we reduce the computational domain so that we do not need boundary conditions. To demonstrate the accuracy and efficiency of the proposed algorithm, we calculate option prices and their Greeks for the two-asset European call and cash-or-nothing options. Computational results show that the proposed method is accurate and is very useful for nonlinear boundary conditions.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.24 no.2
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• pp.293-305
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• 2011

The volatility is one of most important parameters in the areas of pricing of financial derivatives an measuring risks arising from a sudden change of economic circumstance. We propose a Bayesian approach to estimate the volatility varying with time under a linear model with ARMA(p, q)-GARCH(r, s) errors. This Bayesian estimate of the volatility is compared with the ML estimate. We also present the probability of existence of the unit root in the GARCH model.

• Communications of the Korean Mathematical Society
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• v.30 no.3
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• pp.297-311
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• 2015

We present a robust and accurate boundary condition for pricing financial options that is a hybrid combination of the payoff-consistent extrapolation and the Dirichlet boundary conditions. The payoff-consistent extrapolation is an extrapolation which is based on the payoff profile. We apply the new hybrid boundary condition to the multi-dimensional Black-Scholes equations with a high correlation. Correlation terms in mixed derivatives make it more difficult to get stable numerical solutions. However, the proposed new boundary treatments guarantee the stability of the numerical solution with high correlation. To verify the excellence of the new boundary condition, we have several numerical tests such as higher dimensional problem and exotic option with nonlinear payoff. The numerical results demonstrate the robustness and accuracy of the proposed numerical scheme.

• East Asian Economic Review
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• v.24 no.1
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• pp.61-87
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• 2020

Five diffusion models are estimated using three different foreign exchange rates to find an appropriate model for each. Daily spot exchange rates expressed as the prices of 1 euro, 1 British pound and 100 Japanese yen in US dollars, respectively denoted by USD/EUR, USD/GBP, and USD/100JPY, are used. The maximum likelihood estimation method is implemented after deriving an approximate log-transition density function (log-TDF) of the diffusion processes because the true log-TDF is unknown. Of the five models, the most general model is the best fit for the USD/GBP, and USD/100JPY exchange rates, but it is not the case for the case of USD/EUR. Although we could not find any evidence of the mean-reverting property for the USD/EUR exchange rate, the USD/GBP, and USD/100JPY exchange rates show the mean-reversion behavior. Interestingly, the volatility function of the USD/EUR exchange rate is increasing in the exchange rate while the volatility functions of the USD/GBP and USD/100Yen exchange rates have a U-shape. Our results reveal that more care has to be taken when determining a diffusion model for the exchange rate. The results also imply that we may have to use a more general diffusion model than those proposed in the literature when developing economic theories for the behavior of the exchange rate and pricing foreign currency options or derivatives.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.14 no.4
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• pp.943-964
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• 2005

This study estimated a wide range of stochastic process models using the frameworks of CKLS (1992) and Nowman and Wang (2001). For empirical analysis, the GMM estimation procedure is adopted for the monthly Brent crude oil prices from January 1996 to January 2005. Using the simulated price series, European call option premiums were calculated and compared each other. The empirical results suggest that the crude oil price has a strong dependency of volatility on the price level. Contrary to the results of previous related studies, it shows a weak tendency of mean reversion. In addition, the models provide different implications for pricing derivatives on crude oil.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.29 no.1
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• pp.85-101
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• 2022

Derivative-linked securities (DLS) is a type of derivatives that offer an agreed return when the underlying asset price moves within a specified range by the maturity date. The underlying assets of DLS are diverse such as interest rates, exchange rates, crude oil, or gold. A German 10-year bond rate-linked DLS and a USD-GBP CMS rate-linked DLS have recently become a social issue in Korea due to a huge loss to investors. In this regard, this paper accounts for the payoff structure of these products and evaluates their prices and fair coupon rates as well as risk measures such as Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Tail-Value-at-Risk (TVaR). We would like to examine how risky these products were and whether or not their coupon rates were appropriate. We use Hull-White Model as the stochastic model for the underlying assets and Monte Carlo (MC) methods to obtain numerical results. The no-arbitrage prices of the German 10-year bond rate-linked DLS and the USD-GBP CMS rate-linked DLS at the center of the social issue turned out to be 0.9662% and 0.9355% of the original investment, respectively. Considering that Korea government bond rate for 2018 is about 2%, these values are quite low. The fair coupon rates that make the prices of DLS equal to the original investment are computed as 4.76% for the German 10-year bond rate-linked DLS and 7% for the USD-GBP CMS rate-linked DLS. Their actual coupon rates were 1.4% and 3.5%. The 95% VaR and TVaR of the loss for German 10-year bond rate-linked DLS are 37.30% and 64.45%, and those of the loss for USD-GBP CMS rate-linked DLS are 73.98% and 87.43% of the initial investment. Summing up the numerical results obtained, we could see that the DLS products of our interest were indeed quite unfavorable to individual investors.