• International Journal of Advanced Culture Technology
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• 제10권3호
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• pp.63-70
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• 2022

This study is to investigate that population change as a result of the decline in population has a correlation with a decrease in crime, with the change in the demographic composition by comparing with two models: model with growth in population and one with the decline in population. We collected demographic data for all cities in Korea from the 2010 Census to 2020 offered by the Korean Statistical Information Service, with crime data comprising serious reported crime events from the Korean Nation Police Agency through requesting data related to the total number of crimes at the same as the period of demographic data. This study can identify the impacts of demographic changes as a result of population change on crime change through a comparative analysis between areas with population growth and ones with population decline. We can confirm that there are differences in determinants of crime between areas with population increase and one with population decrease from the analysis of the impact of demographic change as a result of population change on crime change.

• 농촌계획
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• 제25권4호
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• pp.99-107
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• 2019

This paper analyzed the characteristics of population change from 2000 to 2018 in 466 mountainous areas using resident registration data from the Ministry of the Interior and Safety, and projected the population in those areas through 2050 with the cohort change ratio method. The population had dramatically decreased from 2000 to 2009. With the slowing population decrease after 2010, the population has increased gradually since 2014. Especially the population of ages over 65 in 2018 had increased 34% compared to 2000, while the working age population had decreased 29%. This shows that population aging becomes serious problems in the mountainous area. Assuming the cohort change ratios from 2010 to 2015 and child-woman ratio in 2015 remain constant, it appeared that the projected population of the mountainous area dropped to 1.26 million in 2030 and 820,000 in 2050. It is expected to have a population with an inverted pyramid structure showing a gender imbalance with more females in 60's and 70's. Although it continues to show the recent population growth in mountainous area, population in mountainous area is expected to consistently decrease. Therefore, it is required to develop policies and strategies to promote an influx of people into mountainous area for maintaining functionality and sustainability of mountainous areas.

• 대한가정학회지
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• 제20권1호
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• pp.87-96
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• 1982

For the solution of population problem, a population education is urgently need since family member size(that is population size) will be on the decrease fro the reason of changes in family consciousness by population education. The population education should be carried out interdisciplinary, but, above all, home economics is more suitable to the population education. In this study, the issues are the contents of population education in relation to family relations of home economics. Those contents are as follows: 1. A change in family consciousness through the value of child 1) Conventional value of child 2) Criticism about conventional value of child 3) Current value of child 4) Desirable number of children 2. A change in family consciousness through the preparation for one's declining years 1) Analysis of periodic family life cycle by number of children 2) Desirable number of children 3. A change in family consciousness through the parental responsibility 1) Mental responsibility 2) Physical responsibility 3) Economics responsibility 4. A change in family consciousness through the relationship between parents and children 1) Conventional relationship 2) Current relationship 3) Desirable relationship 5. A change in family consciousness through the relationship between husband and wife 1) Conventional relationship 2) Current relationship 3) Effects of children on the relationship of husband and wife By the above contents of population education in the field of family relations of home economics parents will have their deliberate plans and aims.

• 농촌계획
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• 제20권4호
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• pp.127-135
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• 2014

The purpose of this study is to show the relation of the change between spacial structure and social conditions of rural area. The spacial structure change of Asan city was analyzed using Space Syntax, and multiple regression analysis (dependent variables: connectivity, global integration, local integration / independent variables: population, household, farm population, farm population of 65years old and over, farm household, part-time farm households, cultivated land) was accomplished. As th result, that the increase of connectivity is related to the increase of population and farm population of 65years old and over and the decrease of farm population, and the increase of local integration is related to the increase of farm population of 65years old and over was showed. However, that global integration is not related to change of social conditions was proved.

• 농촌계획
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• 제28권4호
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• pp.1-9
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• 2022

Rural decline due to the decrease of the local population is an inevitable phenomenon, and a vicious cycle has been formed between a lack of basic living services and a population decrease in rural areas. Therefore, the study aims to derive the migration decision-making characteristics based on basic living service infrastructure data in rural areas. To do this, the population change over the past 20 years was categorized into six types, and the relationship between the classified population change types and the number of basic living service infrastructures was analyzed using decision tree analysis. Of the total 3,501 regions, 801 regions were the continuous decline type, of which 740 were rural areas. On the other hand, among 569 regions that were the continuous increase type, 401 regions were urban areas, confirming the population imbalance between rural and urban areas. As a result of the decision tree analysis on the relationship between population change types and the distribution of basic living service infrastructure, the number of daycare centers was derived as an important variable to classify the continuous increase type. Hospitals, parks, and public transportation were also found to be major basic living services affecting the classification of population change types.

• 한국주거학회논문집
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• 제16권1호
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• pp.97-104
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• 2005

The purpose of this study is to understand changes of the population and family composition in apartment houses. The main contents of this study is to find the way of housing planning through the analysis of the population and family composition by the unit types. The population and family composition were studied by computer data base program to 11,000 residents of selection 4 apartments houses. The structure of the family types proved to be constant by the result of analyzing the 10 family types. If the family types of certain resident's groups are given, this study will be able to estimate population structure to them. The transition of the population and the family composition changes to the unit types proved to be constant by the time. The distribution of manhood and matured children is tend to change according to how large the size of house is, and to change the structure of family composition.

• 한국농공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국농공학회 2005년도 학술발표논문집
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• pp.456-460
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• 2005

The purpose of this study is to develop a estimation model of migration with only population data using the cohort-survival model which has been used for forecasting future population. The fluctuation of population can be bisected to the natural change which can be occurred by birth and death and the social change which means migration. The factors of the social change are usually very important for establishing rural policies. However, researches using migration data has limitations because the usage of them are restricted. For verifying a estimation model of migration, comparing estimated population in 2000 year and migration quantity between 1996 and 2000 of 25 gu with real values, using population data and death ratio from 1995 to 2000 of the 25 gu in Seoul. Result shows a reliable data that R-square of forecating population model is 0.9755 and migration is 0.9180. So these model are worth to estimate a population and migration quantity to restricted migration data.

• 한국환경농학회지
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• 제32권4호
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• pp.294-303
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• 2013

본 연구는 수학적 모델(Lotka-Volterra 방정식)을 이용하여 기후변화가 논습지를 이용하는 조류 개체군의 크기와 구조에 미치는 영향에 대해 분석 및 예측하였다. 특히 논습지를 이용하는 조류 개체군 동태에 영향을 주는 기후변화에 대해, 1) 계절 내 최고 및 최저 기온의 변화와 2) 계절 길이의 변화를 조합하여 11가지 가능한 기후변화시나리오를 모델시뮬레이션에 이용하였다. 본 연구의 수학모델은 기온 변화, 즉 계절이 바뀜에 따라 월동, 이동, 그리고 번식조류가 일정한 시기에 그리고 일정한 분포패턴으로 논습지를 취식 및 서식지로 이용하고 있음을 보였다. 기후변화 시나리오의 결과, 기온변화의 폭이 커질 수록 조류 개체군 동태의 변이는 증가하였으며, 계절의 길이 변화, 특히 계절이 짧아진 경우에 논습지를 이용하는 기간도 크게 짧아져 전체적으로 개체군 동태를 감소시켰다. 전체적으로 한 계절 내의 기온변화가 발생하고, 다른 계절은 평년 기온을 유지할 경우에는, 해당 계절의 조류 개체군 동태만 기온변화에 영향을 받았다. 더욱이 계절의 길이 변화는 계절 내 기온 변화보다 더 뚜렷한 개체군 동태의 변화를 유도하였다.

• 한국산림과학회지
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• 제103권4호
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• pp.670-678
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• 2014

이 연구는 코호트 변화율법을 이용하여 우리나라 산촌지역 인구변동의 특성을 분석하고 장래 산촌인구를 추계한 것이다. 분석대상이 되는 산촌은 산림청에서 지정한 산촌진흥지역으로, 산림면적 비율 70% 이상, 인구밀도 111인/$km^2$, 경지면적 비율 21% 이하인 읍 면으로 정의한다. 산촌의 인구변동 특성을 살펴보면 지난 20년 간 산촌 인구는 급격히 감소하였고 노령화 지수는 상승하였다. 연령별로는 10~30대 젊은 층의 인구 유출이 많고 40대 이상 장년층의 유입이 증가하였다. 젊은 세대 인구가 감소하는 것은 교육과 취업을 위해 도시로 이동하는 경우가 많기 때문이며, 장년층 인구 증가는 귀농 귀촌에 대한 관심 증대의 영향으로 생각된다. 이러한 추세가 지속된다면 산촌인구는 2030년에 68만 명, 산촌의 노령화 지수는 1,035로 상승하여 국토의 균형 발전과 산림의 지속가능한 경영에 문제를 초래할 것이다. 따라서 산촌경제 활성화와 안정화를 위한 정책적 개입이 필요하다.

• 농촌계획
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• 제12권3호
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• pp.39-42
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• 2006

The purpose of this study is to develop rural population model adapting cohort survival method with sift-share effects. Administrative district in this study is below Myun: about 2,000 population. Population data of rural area in 1990, 1995, and 2000 by age cohort were selected for applying developed model. Damping coefficient from population data was calculated as 7% and results applying this coefficient in rural population data below the error from 12% to 1.06%. In detail, most of cohorts fitted with developed model except from 15 to 29 age groups. Application result of small population area; DaesulMyun revealed that main factor of population change is not natural change but migration.