Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science (한국산림과학회지)

Korean Society of Forest Science (한국산림과학회)
권호 표지
DOI QR코드

DOI QR Code

A Study on Population Change and Projection in Korea Mountainous Area

산촌지역 인구변동의 특성 분석과 장래 추계

  • Min, Kyung-Taek (Department of Forest Policy Research, Korea Rural Economic Institute) ;
  • Kim, Myeong-Eun (Department of Forest Policy Research, Korea Rural Economic Institute)
  • 민경택 (한국농촌경제연구원 산림정책연구부) ;
  • 김명은 (한국농촌경제연구원 산림정책연구부)
  • Received : 2014.06.21
  • Accepted : 2014.08.05
  • Published : 2014.12.31
Download PDF
⟨ Previous Next ⟩

Abstract

This paper analyzes the characteristics of population change and makes the population projection in the mountainous area of Korea. Mountainous areas are defined as local towns (eup or myeon) with forest area more than 70 percent of land area, population density less than 111 people per square kilometer, and plowland area less than 21 percent of land area. The population in mountainous areas has decreased dramatically, while the ageing index has increased over the past two decades. To make the population projection, the cohort-change ratios method is applied. The results revealed that a multitude of young people aged 10 to 39 moved to cities to find education and job chance and some people aged 40 and over moved to mountainous areas as the trends of urban-to-rural migration. This continuing trend will culminate in 680 thousand people in population and 1,035 of ageing index in 2030, which will lead to the unequal land development and inefficient forest management. Thus, policy makers need to develop stimulus plans to revitalize and stabilize the economy of mountainous areas.

이 연구는 코호트 변화율법을 이용하여 우리나라 산촌지역 인구변동의 특성을 분석하고 장래 산촌인구를 추계한 것이다. 분석대상이 되는 산촌은 산림청에서 지정한 산촌진흥지역으로, 산림면적 비율 70% 이상, 인구밀도 111인/$km^2$, 경지면적 비율 21% 이하인 읍 면으로 정의한다. 산촌의 인구변동 특성을 살펴보면 지난 20년 간 산촌 인구는 급격히 감소하였고 노령화 지수는 상승하였다. 연령별로는 10~30대 젊은 층의 인구 유출이 많고 40대 이상 장년층의 유입이 증가하였다. 젊은 세대 인구가 감소하는 것은 교육과 취업을 위해 도시로 이동하는 경우가 많기 때문이며, 장년층 인구 증가는 귀농 귀촌에 대한 관심 증대의 영향으로 생각된다. 이러한 추세가 지속된다면 산촌인구는 2030년에 68만 명, 산촌의 노령화 지수는 1,035로 상승하여 국토의 균형 발전과 산림의 지속가능한 경영에 문제를 초래할 것이다. 따라서 산촌경제 활성화와 안정화를 위한 정책적 개입이 필요하다.

Keywords

References

  1. Chae, J.H., Park, J.Y., and Kim, J.S. 2007. Relationship between Demographics and Tertiary Sector in Rural Area. Journal of Rural Development. 30(1): 109-127. (in Korean)
  2. Hamilton, H.C. and Perry, J. 1962. A Short Method for Projection Population by Age from One Decennial Census to Another. Social Forces 41: 163-170. https://doi.org/10.2307/2573607
  3. Han, S.H., Kim, M.W., Lee, J.M., and Ban, H.J. 2010. A Study on Development of the Korea Agricultural and Rural Population Model. Working Paper W37. Korea Rural Economic Institute. (in Korean)
  4. Hayashi, M. 2012. Demographics in Japanese Mountainous Areas. pp. 135-153 In: Outlook Study on the Forest, Forestry and Forest Industry: Data, Theory and Simulation. Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute (in Japanese)
  5. Kim, J.S. and Kim, K.S. 2011. Trends of Return-Farm Return-Rural and Local Policy. pp. 269-290 In: Agriculture Outlook 2011. Korea Rural Economic Institute. (in Korean)
  6. Kim, J.S., Lim, J.E., and Park, C.S. 2012. Trends and Prospects on Population and Jobs in Rural Areas. pp. 161- 186. In: Agriculture Outlook 2012. Korea Rural Economic Institute. (in Korean)
  7. Kim, K.D. 2004. Forecasts on the Rural Population Size, Labor Forces in the Agricultural Sector, and Responding Policy Task. R491. Korea Rural Economic Institute. (in Korean)
  8. Kim, K.D., Kim, J.H., and Kim, J.S. 2012. Retrospect and Prospect of Structural Change in Korean Agriculture: An Analysis of Agricultural Census (2000, 2005, 2010). R686. Korea Rural Economic Institute. pp. 152. (in Korean)
  9. Kim, T.H., Kim, D.H., and Jung, G.H. 2006. Population Projections for Small Areas in Korea Based on the Cohort Component Method. Journal of The Korean Official Statistics 11(2): 1-39. (in Korean)
  10. Korea Forest Research Institute. 2003. National Mountain Villages Basic Survey. (in Korean)
  11. Korea Forest Service. 2008. Mountain Village Revitalization Plan 2008-2017.
  12. Korea Forest Service. 2012. Statistical Yearbook of Forestry. (in Korean)
  13. Lee, H.C. 2007. Estimating Optimum Level of Population in Rural Areas Based on Rural Population Forecasts and Over-depopulation Classification Schemes. Rural Tourism Research 14(1): 159-181. (in Korean).
  14. Min, K.T., Chong, H.G., Kim, M.E., Koo, J.C. Kim, E.G., and Lee, J.M. 2013. A Preliminary Study for the Socioeconomic Survey of Mountain Villages. M121. Korea Rural Eocnomic Institute. (in Korean)
  15. Seo, J.W. 2012. Mountain Village Revitalization through the Low Carbon Green Village Policy. pp. 965-996. In: Agriculture Outlook 2012. Korea Rural Economic Institute. (in Korean)
  16. Smith, K.S., Tayman, J., and Swanson, D.A. 2001. State and Local Population Projections: Methodology and Analysis. Kluwer Academic.
  17. Statistics Korea. 2012a. Population and Housing Census. (in Korean)
  18. Statistics Korea. 2012b. Population Projection. (in Korean)
  19. Statistics Planning Bureau. 2004. Projection Methodology on Expected Population in Census. Statistics Korea. (in Korean)

Cited by

  1. A measure for the promotion of mountain ecological villages in South Korea: focus on the national mountain ecological village investigation of 2014 vol.5, pp.1, 2016, https://doi.org/10.1186/s40064-016-2206-5
  2. The Educational Needs Analysis on Migration to Mountains Area by City Dwellers vol.104, pp.3, 2015, https://doi.org/10.14578/jkfs.2015.104.3.466
  3. Changes and development plans in the mountain villages of South Korea: Comparison of the first and second national surveys vol.14, pp.8, 2017, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11629-016-3875-9
  4. 우리나라 산촌의 인구 추이와 미래 전망 vol.25, pp.4, 2014, https://doi.org/10.7851/ksrp.2019.25.4.099
  5. Super Aging in South Korea Unstoppable but Mitigatable: A Sub-National Scale Population Projection for Best Policy Planning vol.8, pp.2, 2014, https://doi.org/10.1007/s40980-020-00061-8
  6. Impact of Collaborative Forest Management on Rural Livelihood: A Case Study of Maple Sap Collecting Households in South Korea vol.13, pp.4, 2014, https://doi.org/10.3390/su13041594