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Development of a Rural Population Model Considering Shift-Share Effects in Cohort-Survival Method  

Jung, Nam-Su (Dept. of Agricultural Engineering, College of Ins., Kongju Nat'l Univ.)
Lee, Haeng-Woo (Rural Policy Bureau, Ministry of Agriculture & Forestry)
Publication Information
Journal of Korean Society of Rural Planning / v.12, no.3, 2006 , pp. 39-42 More about this Journal
Abstract
The purpose of this study is to develop rural population model adapting cohort survival method with sift-share effects. Administrative district in this study is below Myun: about 2,000 population. Population data of rural area in 1990, 1995, and 2000 by age cohort were selected for applying developed model. Damping coefficient from population data was calculated as 7% and results applying this coefficient in rural population data below the error from 12% to 1.06%. In detail, most of cohorts fitted with developed model except from 15 to 29 age groups. Application result of small population area; DaesulMyun revealed that main factor of population change is not natural change but migration.
Keywords
Planning model; Population estimation; Cohort-survival model;
Citations & Related Records
Times Cited By KSCI : 1  (Citation Analysis)
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