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http://dx.doi.org/10.14578/jkfs.2014.103.4.670

A Study on Population Change and Projection in Korea Mountainous Area  

Min, Kyung-Taek (Department of Forest Policy Research, Korea Rural Economic Institute)
Kim, Myeong-Eun (Department of Forest Policy Research, Korea Rural Economic Institute)
Publication Information
Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science / v.103, no.4, 2014 , pp. 670-678 More about this Journal
Abstract
This paper analyzes the characteristics of population change and makes the population projection in the mountainous area of Korea. Mountainous areas are defined as local towns (eup or myeon) with forest area more than 70 percent of land area, population density less than 111 people per square kilometer, and plowland area less than 21 percent of land area. The population in mountainous areas has decreased dramatically, while the ageing index has increased over the past two decades. To make the population projection, the cohort-change ratios method is applied. The results revealed that a multitude of young people aged 10 to 39 moved to cities to find education and job chance and some people aged 40 and over moved to mountainous areas as the trends of urban-to-rural migration. This continuing trend will culminate in 680 thousand people in population and 1,035 of ageing index in 2030, which will lead to the unequal land development and inefficient forest management. Thus, policy makers need to develop stimulus plans to revitalize and stabilize the economy of mountainous areas.
Keywords
ageing index; mountainous area; population change; population projection; super-aged society; cohort-change ratios method;
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