• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.21 no.6
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• pp.471-486
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• 2014

This study introduces a new type of symbolic data, a candle chart-valued time series. We aggregate four stock indices (i.e., open, close, highest and lowest) as a one data point to summarize a huge amount of data. In other words, we consider a candle chart, which is constructed by open, close, highest and lowest stock indices, as a type of symbolic data for a long period. The proposed candle chart-valued time series effectively summarize and visualize a huge data set of stock indices to easily understand a change in stock indices. We also propose novel approaches for the candle chart-valued time series modeling based on a combination of two midpoints and two half ranges between the highest and the lowest indices, and between the open and the close indices. Furthermore, we propose three types of sum of square for estimation of the candle chart valued-time series model. The proposed methods take into account of information from not only ordinary data, but also from interval of object, and thus can effectively perform for time series modeling (e.g., forecasting future stock index). To evaluate the proposed methods, we describe real data analysis consisting of the stock market indices of five major Asian countries'. We can see thorough the results that the proposed approaches outperform for forecasting future stock indices compared with classical data analysis.

• Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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• v.27 no.6
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• pp.605-613
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• 2014

Epistemic uncertainty, the lack of knowledge, is often more important than aleatory uncertainty, variability, in estimating reliability of a system. While the probability theory is widely used for modeling aleatory uncertainty, there is no dominant approach to model epistemic uncertainty. Different approaches have been developed to handle epistemic uncertainties using various theories, such as probability theory, fuzzy sets, evidence theory and possibility theory. However, since these methods are developed from different statistics theories, it is difficult to interpret the result from one method to the other. The goal of this paper is to compare different methods in handling epistemic uncertainty in the view point of calculating the probability of failure. In particular, four different methods are compared; the probability method, the combined distribution method, interval analysis method, and the evidence theory. Characteristics of individual methods are compared in the view point of reliability analysis.

• Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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• v.14 no.3
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• pp.78-95
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• 2011

This study has developed various DEMs with different spatial resolutions using many different interpolation methods with the aid of a 1:5,000 digital map. In addition, this study has evaluated the vertical accuracy of various DEMs constructed by check point data obtained from the network RTK GPS survey. The obtained results suggest that a DEM developed from the TIN-based Terrain method performs well in evaluating height restriction of buildings in a flying safety area considering general RMSE values, land-type RMSE values and profile evaluation results, etc. And, it has been found that three meters is the right spatial resolution for a DEM in evaluating height restriction of buildings in a flying safety area. Meanwhile, elevation values obtained by the DEM are not point estimation values but interval estimation values. This can be used to check whether the height of buildings in the vicinity of an airfield violates height limitation values of the area. To check whether the height of buildings measured in interval estimation values violates height limitation values of the area, this study has adopted three steps: 1) high probability of violation, 2) low probability of violation, 3) inconclusiveness about the violation. The obtained results will provide an important basis for developing a GIS related to the evaluation of height restriction of buildings in the vicinity of an airfield. Furthermore, although results are limited to the study area, the vertical accuracy values of the DEM constructed from a two-dimensional digital map may provide useful information to researchers who try to use DEMs.

• Journal of Institute of Control, Robotics and Systems
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• v.4 no.3
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• pp.295-300
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• 1998

In this paper, we point out the possibility of the divergence of control input caused by the estimation error of delay-time when general iterative learning algorithms are applied to a class of linear dynamic systems with time-delay in which delay-time is not exactly measurable, and then propose a new type of iterative learning algorithm in order to solve this problem. To resolve the uncertainty of delay-time, we propose an algorithm using holding mechanism which has been used in digital control system and/or discrete-time control system. The control input is held as constant value during the time interval of which size is that of the delay-time uncertainty. The output of the system tracks a given desired trajectory at discrete points which are spaced auording to the size of uncertainty of delay-time with the robust property for estimation error of delay-time. Several numerical examples are given to illustrate the effeciency of the proposed algorithm.

• Journal of international Conference on Electrical Machines and Systems
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• v.3 no.3
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• pp.339-353
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• 2014

A straightforward method for optimal determining of a high frequency inductor's parasitic capacitance is presented. The proposed estimation method is based on measuring the inductor's impedance samples over a limited frequency range bordering on the resonance point considering k-dB deviation from the maximum impedance. An optimized solution to k could be obtained by minimizing the root mean squared error between the measured and the estimated impedance values. The model used to provide the estimations is a parallel RLC circuit valid at resonance frequency which will be transferred to the real model considering the mentioned interval of frequencies. A straightforward algorithm is suggested and programmed using MATLAB which does not require a wide knowledge of design parameters and could be implemented using a spectrum analyzer. The inputs are the measured impedance samples as a function of frequency along with the diameter of the conductors. The suggested algorithm practically provides the estimated parameters of a real inductance model at different frequencies, with or without design information. The suggested work is different from designing a high frequency inductor; it is rather concentration of determining the parameters of an available real inductor that could be easily done by a recipe provided to a technician.

• International Journal of Reliability and Applications
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• v.14 no.2
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• pp.55-70
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• 2013

This paper deals with the Bayesian analysis of the failure data of a repairable mechanical system subject to minimal repairs and periodic overhauls. The effect of overhauls on the reliability of the system is modeled by a proportional age reduction model and the failure process between two successive overhauls is assumed to be 2-parameter Engelhardt-Bain process (2-EBP). Power Law Process (PLP) model has a disadvantage which 2-EBP can overcome. On the basis of the observed data and of a number of suitable prior densities, point and interval estimation of model parameters, as well as quantities of relevant interest are found. Also hypothesis tests on the effectiveness of performed overhauls have been developed using Bayes factor. Sensitivity analysis of improvement parameter is carried out. Finally, a numerical application is used to illustrate the proposed method.

• Journal of Korea Technology Innovation Society
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• v.7 no.3
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• pp.533-554
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• 2004

Real option valuation considers the managerial flexibility to make ongoing decisions regarding implementation of investment projects and deployment of real assets. The appeal of the framework is natural given the high degree of uncertainty that firms face in their technology investment decisions. This paper suggests an algorithm for estimating volatility of logarithmic cash flow returns of real asset based on Monte Carlo simulation. This research uses a binomial model to obtain point estimate of real option value with embedded expansion option case and provides also an array of numerical results to show the interval estimation of option value using Monte Carlo simulation.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2016.05a
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• pp.260-260
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• 2016

Soil erosion is a very serious problem from agricultural as well as environmental point of view. Various computer models have been used to estimate soil erosion and assess erosion control practice. Universal Soil loss equation (USLE) is a popular model which has been used in many countries around the world. Erosivity (USLE R-factor) is one of the USLE input parameters to reflect impacts of rainfall in computing soil loss. Value of R factor depends upon Energy (E) and maximum rainfall intensity of specific period ($I30_{max}$) of that rainfall event and thus can be calculated using higher temporal resolution rainfall data such as 10 minute interval. But 10 minute interval rainfall data may not be available in every part of the world. In that case we can use hourly rainfall data to compute this R factor. Maximum 60 minute rainfall ($I60_{max}$) can be used instead of maximum 30 minute rainfall ($I30_{max}$) as suggested by USLE manual. But the value of Average annual R factor computed using hourly rainfall data needs some correction factor so that it can be used in USLE model. The objective of our study are to derive relation between averages annual R factor values using 10 minute interval and hourly rainfall data and to determine correction coefficient for R factor using hourly Rainfall data.75 weather stations of Korea were selected for our study. Ten minute interval rainfall data for these stations were obtained from Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) and these data were changed to hourly rainfall data. R factor and $I60_{max}$ obtained from hourly rainfall data were compared with R factor and $I30_{max}$ obtained from 10 minute interval data. Linear relation between Average annual R factor obtained from 10 minute interval rainfall and from hourly data was derived with $R^2=0.69$. Correction coefficient was developed for the R factor calculated using hourly rainfall data.. Similarly, the relation was obtained between event wise $I30_{max}$ and $I60_{max}$ with higher $R^2$ value of 0.91. Thus $I30_{max}$ can be estimated from I60max with higher accuracy and thus the hourly rainfall data can be used to determine R factor more precisely by multiplying Energy of each rainfall event with this corrected $I60_{max}$.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.23 no.5 s.83
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• pp.135-146
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• 2005

Up to now studies on the fusion of travel time from various detectors have been conducted based on the variance raito of the intermittent data mainly collected by GPS or probe vehicles. The fusion model based on the variance ratio of intermittent data is not suitable for the license plate recognition AVIs which can deal with vast amount of data. This study was carried out to develop the fusion model based on travel time acquired from the license plate recognition AVIs and the point detectors. In order to fuse travel time acquired from the point detectors and the license plate recognition AVIs, the optimized fusion model and the proportional fusion model were developed in this study. As a result of verification, the optimized fusion model showed the superior estimation performance. The optimized fusion model is the dynamic fusion ratio estimation model on real time base, which calculates fusion weights based on real time historic data and applies them to the current time period. The results of this study are expected to be used effectively for National Highway Traffic Management System to provide traffic information in the future. However, there should be further studies on the Proper distance for the establishment of the AVIs and the license plate matching rate according to the lanes for AVIs to be established.

• The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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• v.19 no.5
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• pp.70-81
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• 2020

Point-by-point data, which is abundantly collected by vehicles with embedded GPS (Global Positioning System), generate useful information. These data facilitate decisions by transportation jurisdictions, and private vendors can monitor and investigate micro-scale driver behavior, traffic flow, and roadway movements. The information is applied to develop app-based route guidance and business models. Of these, speed data play a vital role in developing key parameters and applying agent-based information and services. Nevertheless, link speed values require different levels of physical storage and fidelity, depending on both collecting and reporting intervals. Given these circumstances, this study aimed to establish an appropriate collection interval to efficiently utilize Space Mean Speed information by vehicles with embedded GPS. We conducted a comparison of Probe-vehicle data and Image-based vehicle data to understand PE(Percentage Error). According to the study results, the PE of the Probe-vehicle data showed a 95% confidence level within an 8-second interval, which was chosen as the appropriate collection interval for Probe-vehicle data. It is our hope that the developed guidelines facilitate C-ITS, and autonomous driving service providers will use more reliable Space Mean Speed data to develop better related C-ITS and autonomous driving services.