• Health Policy and Management
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• v.20 no.1
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• pp.37-63
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• 2010

Public expenditures on long-term care are a matter of concern for Korea as in many other countries. The expenditure is expected to accelerate and to put pressure on public budgets, adding to that arising from insufficient retirement schemes and other forms of social spending. This study tried to foresee how much health care spending could increase in the future considering demographic and non-demographic factors as the drivers of expenditure. Previous projections of future long-term expenditure were mainly based on a given relation between spending and age structure. However, although demographic factors will surely put upward pressure on long-term care costs, other non-demographic factors, such as labor cost increase and availability of informal care, should be taken into account as well. Also, the possibility of dynamic link between health status and longevity gains needs to be considered. The model in this study is cell-base and consists of three main parts. The first part estimated the numbers of elderly people with different levels of health status by age group, gender, household type. The second part estimated the levels of long-term care services required, by attaching a probability of receiving long-term care services to each cell using from the sample from current year. The third part of the model estimated long-term care expenditure, along the demographic and non-demographic factors' change in various scenarios. Public spending on long-term care could rise from the current level of 0.2~0.3% of GDP to around 0.44~2.30% by 2040.

• Journal of Nuclear Fuel Cycle and Waste Technology(JNFCWT)
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• v.3 no.3
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• pp.237-247
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• 2005

It is necessary to forecast the various dismantling activities prior to dismantling nuclear facilities by using various software instead of a physical mock-up system because the dismantling in a contaminated with radioactivity cause the results of an unexpected situation. The component that needs to develop a dismantling mock-up system was examined. There are many component systems such as a decommissioning database system,3D dosimetric mapping that represents a distribution of a radionuclide contamination, a component of modeling for nuclear facility and devices include the decontamination and decommissioning. The research of software architecture about these components was carried out because these component systems that have been independently doesn't describe not only to visual an activities of Decontamination and Decommissioning(D&D) but also to evaluate it. The result was established an architecture that consist of an visualization module which could be visualized an D&D activities and a simulation module which can be evaluated a dismantling schedule and decommissioning cost.

• Proceedings of the KOR-KST Conference
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• 1995.05a
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• pp.239-250
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• 1995

With speeding up the process of being international municipality, the gravity of lacking parking lots in Shanghai urban area, which directly blocks the traffic in the city, has been revealed. This thesis analyses present automobiles parking capability and forecasts the future's needs for the city. To solve the problem, the concept could be to expand parking areas in city center recently to relax the tention and to do thoughtful planning in the near future on the foundation of fully consideration the trend. The municipal government has to set up policy properly, amplify regulations, strenthern the administration and open up a path to raise founds. Berween road system administration which is dynamic and parking lot system administration which is static, there are a knot on macroscopic meaning and an interference as well. The coordination of these two systems would be reflested on the effects of whole municipal traffic adminisration. Basically, public parking lots are city's foundal facilities, just like roads, bridges, etc. The main problems now in Shanghai are large parking space demands, insufficient facilities, cheap parking expenses comparing with the cost of parking lots construcion and poor administration. According to the forecast on social economy development, there will be 580 thousand automobiles in Shanghai by the year 2000, and the amount of private cars will increase greatly. The frequency of automobiles going out will be 1.45 million per day. Public parking lots being able to afford 105 thousand units are needed. To satisfy the demands, the recent aim of planning should be speed up the parking lots construction, the planning objective in next period should be developing reasonably and exceed the demands properly. In order to realize the planning objective, the government has to formulate correct policy and amplify administration regulations. The government has to adopt both administration and economy means, including charging parking people reasonably, collect necessary taxes, bringing the parking lots planning into general municipality planning, opening up an effective path to raise founds, such as set up founds for parking lots construction, issue bonds and stocks, get loans at home and abroad, etc.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.7 no.2 s.30
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• pp.138-147
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• 2006

The objective of this research is to explore a more precise forecasting method by applying Case-based Reasoning (CBR). The newly suggested method in this study enables project managers to forecast monthly expenditures with less time and effort by retrieving and referring only projects of a similar nature, while filtering out irrelevant cases included in database. For the purpose of accurate forecasting, 1) the choice of the numbers of referring projects and 2) the better selection among three levels ? which include a 20-work package level, a 7-major work package level, and a total sum level analysis, were investigated in detail. It is concluded that selecting similar projects at $12{\sim}19%$ out of the whole database will produce a more precise forecasting. The new forecasting model, which suggests the predicted values based on previous projects, is more than just a forecasting methodology; it provides a bridge that enables current data collection techniques to be used within the context of the accumulated information. This will eventually help all the participants in the construction industry to build up the knowledge derived from invaluable experience.

• Journal of Institute of Control, Robotics and Systems
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• v.10 no.6
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• pp.537-544
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• 2004

An effective methodology is reported for determining the optimal lot size of batch processing and storage networks which include uncertain demand forecasting. We assume that any given storage unit can store one material type which can be purchased from suppliers, internally produced, infernally consumed, transported to or from other sites and/or sold to customers. We further assume that a storage unit is connected to all processing and transportation stages that consume/produce or move the material to which that storage unit is dedicated. Each processing stage transforms a set of feedstock materials or intermediates into a set of products with constant conversion factors. A batch transportation process can transfer one material or multiple materials at once between sites. The objective for optimization is to minimize the probability averaged total cost composed of raw material procurement, processing setup, transportation setup and inventory holding costs as well as the capital costs of processing stages and storage units. A novel production and inventory analysis formulation, the PSW(Periodic Square Wave) model, provides useful expressions for the upper/lower bounds and average level of the storage inventory. The expressions for the Kuhn-Tucker conditions of the optimization problem can be reduced to two sub-problems. The first yields analytical solutions for determining lot sires while the second is a separable concave minimization network flow subproblem whose solution yields the average material flow rates through the networks for the given demand forecast scenario. The result of this study will contribute to the optimal design and operation of the global supply chain.

• Journal of the Korean Solar Energy Society
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• v.32 no.3
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• pp.33-41
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• 2012

As the wind farms in large scale demand enormous amount of construction cost, minimizing the economic burden is essential and also it is very important to measure the wind resources and forecast annual energy production correctly to judge the economic feasibility of the proposed site by way of installing a Met mast at or nearby the site. Wind resources were measured by installing a 80[m] high Met mast at WangdeungYeo Island to conduct the research incorporated in this paper and offshore wind farm was designed using WindPRO. Wind farm of 100[MW] was designed making use of 3 and 4.5[MW] wind generator at the place selected to compare their annual energy production and capacity factor applying the loss factor of 10[%] and 20[%] respectively to each farm. As a result, 336,599[MWh] was generated by applying 3[MW] wind generator while 358,565 [MWh] was produced by 4.5[MW] wind generator. Difference in the energy production by 3[MW] generator was 33,660 [MWh] according to the loss factor with the difference in its capacity factor by 3.8[%]. On the other hand, 23 units of 4.5 [MW] wind generators showed the difference of annual energy production by 35,857 [MWh] with 4.0[%] capacity factor difference.

• Proceedings of the Korean Environmental Sciences Society Conference
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• 2003.11a
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• pp.73-78
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• 2003

In this research, we implement Realtime Air Diffusion Prediction System which is a parallel Fortran model running on distributed-memory parallel computers. The system is designed for air diffusion simulations with four-dimensional data assimilation. For regional air quality forecasting a series of dynamic downscaling technique is adopted using the NCAR/Penn. State MM5 model which is an atmospheric model. The realtime initial data have been provided daily from the KMA (Korean Meteorological Administration) global spectral model output. It takes huge resources of computation to get 24 hour air quality forecast with this four step dynamic downscaling (27km, 9km, 3km, and lkm). Parallel implementation of the realtime system is imperative to achieve increased throughput since the realtime system have to be performed which correct timing behavior and the sequential code requires a large amount of CPU time for typical simulations. The parallel system uses MPI (Message Passing Interface), a standard library to support high-level routines for message passing. We validate the parallel model by comparing it with the sequential model. For realtime running, we implement a cluster computer which is a distributed-memory parallel computer that links high-performance PCs with high-speed interconnection networks. We use 32 2-CPU nodes and a Myrinet network for the cluster. Since cluster computers more cost effective than conventional distributed parallel computers, we can build a dedicated realtime computer. The system also includes web based Gill (Graphic User Interface) for convenient system management and performance monitoring so that end-users can restart the system easily when the system faults. Performance of the parallel model is analyzed by comparing its execution time with the sequential model, and by calculating communication overhead and load imbalance, which are common problems in parallel processing. Performance analysis is carried out on our cluster which has 32 2-CPU nodes.

• Current Industrial and Technological Trends in Aerospace
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• v.6 no.1
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• pp.14-24
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• 2008

After 2001, the world aircraft industry grows consistently with world's economic recovery. The environmental changes after 9.11, including the market decent and revival, rise in oil price, and the environmental problems, make the aircraft industry change gradually. The increasing demand of point-to-point flight needs over 200 seat class large jets and changes the main model of regional jet over 100 seat class. And the needs of various flight schedule raises the demand of business jet and VLJ. The competition between airliners including the main streams, the regionals and the low prices goes harder and it needs more efficient airplanes which reduce the cost. In the military side, still the development of 5th generation fighter is proceeding and it diffuses to the more countries. Before its popularization, the 4th generation fighter is chosen for good alternatives of it. And there are some changes in the military demand after the war against terrorism. The army needs more unmanned reconnaissance and they want new aircraft which gives more accessibility.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.31 no.5D
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• pp.671-677
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• 2011

A diversity of railway network function enhancement projects such as the double tracking, electrification, and direct operation have been actively executed to improve the railway service. When the new rapid transit is provided, how many people will use it instead of other transports? How will the railway choice behavior be changed? Accordingly, in this paper, the applicability of diverted travel demand forecast methods, by Revealed Preference(RP) and Stated Preference(SP) data was reviewed for Daegu metropolitan rail rapid transit service. As the result of combining RP and SP data, including the sequential and simultaneous approach, the total travel time and travel cost parameters are of the right sign and are highly significant. The simultaneous approach is more efficient in terms of the estimation of coefficients. In particular, methods to improve validity of the Mixed RP/SP models, when RP data is used proportionally, the diverted travel demand can be easily identified by railway fare and travel time service level. Therefore, it is considered that this will practically apply even in other regions as well as Daegu metropolitan railway.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute Of Construction Engineering and Management
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• 2006.11a
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• pp.295-300
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• 2006

In this research, risk factors which can raise project cost are identified in the initial stage and picked out through the decision maker's baseline. And also this probable risks are implemented to the project cash flow to estimate the contingency and to build a risk management system in the level of project. The risks that affect the projects profits were classified in two categories in the risk checklist. Firstly, financial risks derived from the external economic conditions for example exchange rate, escalation, interest rates etc. are analyzed through the stochastic methods, Monte-Carlo Simulation. Secondly, the project individual risks which are come from the project characteristics, for example country risk, clime, owner etc., are evaluated using the utility curve of the decision maker. Finally these risk analysis methods are used to forecast the actual project cash flow and final profit.