• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.22 no.1 s.72
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• pp.43-62
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• 2004

Conventionally the estimation method of the origin-destination Matrix has been developed by implementing the expansion of sampled data obtained from roadside interview and household travel survey. In the survey process, the bigger the sample size is, the higher the level of limitation, due to taking time for an error test for a cost and a time. Estimating the O-D matrix from observed traffic count data has been applied as methods of over-coming this limitation, and a gradient model is known as one of the most popular techniques. However, in case of the gradient model, although it may be capable of minimizing the error between the observed and estimated traffic volumes, a prior O-D matrix structure cannot maintained exactly. That is to say, unwanted changes may be occurred. For this reason, this study adopts a conjugate gradient algorithm to take into account two factors: estimation of the O-D matrix from the conjugate gradient algorithm while reflecting the prior O-D matrix structure maintained. This development of the O-D matrix estimation model is to minimize the error between observed and estimated traffic volumes. This study validates the model using the simple network, and then applies it to a large scale network. There are several findings through the tests. First, as the consequence of consistency, it is apparent that the upper level of this model plays a key role by the internal relationship with lower level. Secondly, as the respect of estimation precision, the estimation error is lied within the tolerance interval. Furthermore, the structure of the estimated O-D matrix has not changed too much, and even still has conserved some attributes.

• Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
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• v.29 no.1
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• pp.95-108
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• 2000

Consider the oblique factor model X=Af＋$\varepsilon$, with defining relation $\Sigma$=Λ$\Phi$Λ'＋Ψ. This paper is concerned with suggesting an optimal Bayes criterion for determining the number of factors in the model, i.e. dimension of the vector f. The use of marginal likelihood as a method for calculating posterior probability of each model with given dimension is developed under a generalized conjugate prior. Then based on an appropriate loss function, a Bayes rule is developed by use of the posterior probabilities. It is shown that the approach is straightforward to specify distributionally and to imploement computationally, with output readily adopted for constructing required cirterion.

• Proceedings of the Korean Operations and Management Science Society Conference
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• 1993.04a
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• pp.294-300
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• 1993

어떤 무기체계의 임무신뢰도분석에 베이지안기법을 사용하는데 있어 고장율이 주어졌을 때 고장간 시간이 지수분포를 따른다는 가정하에 이의 Conjugate Prior인 감마분포의 추정문제를 다룬다. 임무별 고장간시간에 대한 예측분포를 유도하였으며, 실제 측정된 기존의 임무별 고장간시간이 이 예측분포를 따른다는 전제하에 비선형 최소자승법을 이용하여 감마분포의 두 파라메터를 추정하는 방안을 제시하였다. 또한 대상 무기체계의 실제 고장자료를 이용하여 추정치를 구하였다.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.21 no.2
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• pp.135-145
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• 2014

The present study surveys Bayesian modeling structure for inferences about transition probabilities of Markov chain. The motivation of the study came from the data that shows transitional behaviors of emotionally disturbed children undergoing residential treatment program. Dirichlet distribution was used as prior for the multinomial distribution. The analysis with real data was implemented in WinBUGS programming environment. The performance of the model was compared to that of alternative approaches.

• Journal of Korean Society for Quality Management
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• v.17 no.1
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• pp.19-34
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• 1989

In this paper, we propose the Bayes estimators of the reliability for a system consisting of the left-truncated exponential components under the truncated normal distribution as a conjugate prior distribution and squared - error loss function on the series, parallel and k-out-of-m : G system. And we compare the proposed Bayes estimators of the system reliability each other in terms of MSE performances and stabilities by the Monte Carlo simulation.

• Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
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• v.9 no.2
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• pp.135-144
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• 1980

A problem of choosing units for the series system and the 1-out-of-2 system from k available brands is treated from a decision-theoretic points of view. It is assumed that units from each brand have exponentially distributed life lengths, and that the loss functions are inversely proportional to the reliability of the system. For the series system the 'natural' rule is shown to be optimal. For the 1-out-of-2 system, the Bayes rule wrt the natural conjugate prior is derived and teh constants to implement the Bayes rule are given.

• Journal of Korean Society for Quality Management
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• v.26 no.1
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• pp.88-98
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• 1998

Process capability indices are used to determine whether a production process is capable of producing items within a specified tolerance. Using conditional distribution, we study some process capability indices ${\hat{C}}_{Gp}$, ${\hat{C}}_{Gpk}$, ${\hat{C}}_{Gpm}$ under conjugate prior distribution. We consider some process capability indices with Gibbs sampling method. Also, we examine some small sample properties related to these estimaters by some simulations.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.22 no.5
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• pp.977-989
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• 2011

The half logistic distribution has been used intensively in reliability and survival analysis especially when the data is censored. In this paper, we provide Bayesian estimation of the shape parameter and reliability function in the generalized half logistic distribution based on progressively Type-II censored data under various loss functions. We here consider conjugate prior and noninformative prior and corresponding posterior distributions are obtained. As an illustration, we examine the validity of our estimation using real data and simulated data.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.22 no.3
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• pp.565-574
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• 2011

The exponenetiated distribution has been used in reliability and survival analysis especially when the data is censored. In this paper, we derive Bayesian estimation of shape parameter and reliability function in the exponenetiated half triangle distribution based on Type-I hybrid censored data. Here we consider conjugate prior and noninformative prior and obtained corresponding posterior distributions. As an illustration, the mean square errors of the estimates are computed. Comparisons are made between these estimators using Monte Carlo simulation study.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.18 no.5
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• pp.603-613
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• 2011

Exponentiated distribution has been used in reliability and survival analysis especially when the data is censored. In this paper, we derive Bayesian estimation of the shape parameter, reliability function and failure rate function in the exponentiated distribution family based on Type-II right censored data. We here consider conjugate prior and noninformative prior and corresponding posterior distributions are obtained. As an illustration, the mean square errors of the estimates are computed. Comparisons are made between these estimators using Monte Carlo simulation study.