• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• 제28권5호
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• pp.511-520
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• 2021

Over the last decade, Bitcoin has attracted a great deal of public interest and Bitcoin market has grown rapidly. One of the main characteristics of the market is that it often undergoes some events or incidents that cause outlying observations. To obtain reliable results in the statistical analysis of Bitcoin data, these outlying observations need to be carefully treated. In this study, we are interested in change point analysis for Bitcoin return series having such outlying observations. Since these outlying observations can affect change point analysis undesirably, we use a robust test for parameter change to locate change points. We report some significant change points that are not detected by the existing tests and demonstrate that the model allowing for parameter changes is better fitted to the data. Finally, we show that the model with parameter change can improve the forecasting performance of Value-at-Risk.

• 품질경영학회지
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• 제35권4호
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• pp.159-165
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• 2007

Using statistical methods a change-point analysis of oil supply disruption is conducted. The statistical distribution of oil supply disruption is a weibull distribution. The detection of the change-point is applied to Bayesian method and weibull parameters are estimated through Markov chain monte carlo and parameter approach. The statistical approaches to the estimation for the change-point and weibull parameters is implemented with the sets of simulated and real data with small sizes of samples.

• Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
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• 제35권1호
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• pp.1-23
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• 2006

In this paper we consider an estimation of the discontinuous variance function in nonparametric heteroscedastic random design regression model. We first propose estimators of the change point in the variance function and then construct an estimator of the entire variance function. We examine the rates of convergence of these estimators and give results for their asymptotics. Numerical work reveals that using the proposed change point analysis in the variance function estimation is quite effective.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• 제26권6호
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• pp.539-556
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• 2019

This paper derive a method to solve change point regression problems via a process for obtaining consequential results using properties of a difference-based intercept estimator first introduced by Park and Kim (Communications in Statistics - Theory Methods, 2019) for outlier detection in multiple linear regression models. We describe the statistical properties of the difference-based regression model in a piecewise simple linear regression model and then propose an efficient algorithm for change point detection. We illustrate the merits of our proposed method in the light of comparison with several existing methods under simulation studies and real data analysis. This methodology is quite valuable, "no matter what regression lines" and "no matter what the number of change points".

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• 제30권4호
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• pp.369-388
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• 2023

In this paper, we develop the two-step procedure that detects and estimates the position of structural changes for multivariate nonstationary time series, either on mean parameters or second-order structures. We first investigate the presence of mean structural change by monitoring data through the aggregated cumulative sum (CUSUM) type statistic, a sequential procedure identifying the likely position of the change point on its trend. If no mean change point is detected, the proposed method proceeds to scan the second-order structural change by modeling the multivariate nonstationary time series with a multivariate locally stationary Wavelet process, allowing the time-localized auto-correlation and cross-dependence. Under this framework, the estimated dynamic spectral matrices derived from the local wavelet periodogram capture the time-evolving scale-specific auto- and cross-dependence features of data. We then monitor the change point from the lower-dimensional approximated space of the spectral matrices over time by applying the dynamic principal component analysis. Different from existing methods requiring prior information on the type of changes between mean and covariance structures as an input for the implementation, the proposed algorithm provides the output indicating the type of change and the estimated location of its occurrence. The performance of the proposed method is demonstrated in simulations and the analysis of two real finance datasets.

• 한국통계학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국통계학회 2002년도 추계 학술발표회 논문집
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• pp.103-108
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• 2002

We consider an estimation of discontinuous variance function in nonparametric heteroscedastic random design regression model. We first propose estimators of a change point and jump size in variance function and then construct an estimator of entire variance function. We examine the rates of convergence of these estimators and give results on their asymptotics. Numerical work reveals that the effectiveness of change point analysis in variance function estimation is quite significant.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• 제12권1호
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• pp.199-205
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• 2005

In general, simple correspondence analysis has handled mainly correspondence relations between the row and column categories but can not display the trends of their change over the time. For solving this problem, we will propose DSCA(Dynamic Simple Correspondence Analysis) of transition matrix data using supplementary categories in this study, Moreover, DSCA provides its trend of the change for the future by predicting and displaying trend toward the change from a standard point of time to the next.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• 제19권6호
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• pp.771-780
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• 2012

In the current analysis, we examine news coverage data widely used in media studies. News coverage data is usually time series data to capture the volume or the tone of the news media's coverage of a topic. We first describe the distributional properties of autoregressive conditionally heteroscadestic(ARCH) effects and compare two major American newspaper's coverage of U.S.-North Korea relations. Subsequently, we propose a change point detection model and apply it to the detection of major change points in the tone of American newspaper coverage of U.S.-North Korea relations.

• 품질경영학회지
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• 제30권3호
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• pp.195-202
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• 2002

The problem of trend change in the mean residual life is great Interest in the reliability and survival analysis. In this paper, a new test statistic for testing whether or not the mean residual life changes its trend Is developed. It is assumed that neither the change point nor the proportion at which the trend change occurs is known. The asymptotic null distribution of test statistic is established and asymptotic critical values of the asymptotic null distribution is obtained. Monte Carlo simulation is used to compare the proposed test with previously known tests.

• 응용통계연구
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• 제17권2호
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• pp.281-301
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• 2004

본 논문에서는 일변량 정규분포를 따르는 확률변수의 관측치열에 대한 변화점 문제(change point problem)를 고찰한다. 변화점의 존재유무, 그리고 만일 변화점이 존재한다면 어떠한 유형으로 발생했는지 즉, 변화점 발생 이후로 평균만 변화, 분산만 변화, 또는 평균과 분산 모두가 변화했는지를 밝힌다. 가능한 여러 유형의 변화모형들 가운데 최적의 모형을 선택하기 위해 베이지안 모형선택 기법을 이용하고, 선택된 모형에 내재된 모수를 추정 하기 위해 메트로폴리스-혜스팅스 알고리 즘을 포함한 깁스샘플링 을 이용한다. 이러한 방법론은 모의실험을 통해 검토되고, 또한 서울지역의 겨울철 평균기온 자료에 적용된다.