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A Change-Point Analysis of Oil Supply Disruption : Bayesian Approach  

Park, Chun-Gun (Seoul Development Institute)
Lee, Sung-Su (School of Economics, Kyonggi University)
Publication Information
Journal of Korean Society for Quality Management / v.35, no.4, 2007 , pp. 159-165 More about this Journal
Abstract
Using statistical methods a change-point analysis of oil supply disruption is conducted. The statistical distribution of oil supply disruption is a weibull distribution. The detection of the change-point is applied to Bayesian method and weibull parameters are estimated through Markov chain monte carlo and parameter approach. The statistical approaches to the estimation for the change-point and weibull parameters is implemented with the sets of simulated and real data with small sizes of samples.
Keywords
Oil Supply Disruption; Change-Point; Weibull Distribution; Markov Chain Monte Carlo(MCMC);
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