• Proceedings of the KSR Conference
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• 2001.10a
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• pp.97.1-103
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• 2001

Railway passenger demand forecasts may be used directly, or as inputs to other optimization model which is use the demand forecasts to produce estimates of other activities. The optimization models require demand forecasts at the most detailed level. In this environment exponential smoothing forecasting methods such as Holt-Winters are appropriate because it is simple and inexpensive in terms of computation. There are several initialization methods for Holt-Winters Model. The purpose of this paper is to compare the initialization methods for Holt-Winters model.

• Proceedings of the SAREK Conference
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• 2009.06a
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• pp.142-147
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• 2009

In the present study, a numerical simulation of passenger evacuation in a subway station was performed. Algorithm for passenger flow analysis based on DEM(Discrete Element Method) has been improved to simulate passenger flow in detailed geometry. The effect of grid density was assessed in the present study to show the advantage of using finer grid in the simulation. The method of coupling passenger flow and fire simulation has also been investigated to analyze passenger evacuation flow under fire. In this method the CO distributions in the subway station was used to assess fire hazards of passenger by means of FED(Fractional Effective Dose) model. Using the coupled algorithm a simulation for passenger evacuation flow and fire analysis were performed simultaneously in the simplified subway station. This algorithm could be used in the design of subway station for the purpose of passengers' safety in case of fire.

• Journal of the Korea Society for Simulation
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• v.20 no.3
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• pp.111-117
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• 2011

This paper suggests the passenger model considered evacuation behavioral characteristics on the passenger ship fire using a rules-based agent technique. The existing evacuation simulation system was modeled only passenger speed. The speed-based model considered passenger's physical characteristics, so it couldn't consider evacuation behavioral characteristics. For solving this problem, we modeled the passenger model using a rule-based agent applied evacuation behavioral characteristics. The rule-based agent consists of knowledge base and inference engine. In knowledge base, we represented evacuation behavioral characteristics, and chose the examples of the evacuation behavioral characteristics to show various patterns of behavior. And we simulated in the IMO MSC/Circ.1238 example 8 and we proved the simulation results could represent variety patterns of human behavior.

• Proceedings of the Korea Society for Simulation Conference
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• 2001.10a
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• pp.444-449
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• 2001

There have been many accidents of passenger ships on the sea and they have caused a big loss of human lives. Maritime Safety Committee(MSC) of International Maritime Organization(IMO) made evacuation analysis of Ro-Ro passenger ships mandatory in order to save as many lives as possible at the time of accident. But this is a temporary regulation and HSC/IMO ties to introduce a performance-based regulation to improve the effect of regulation. Simulation-based evacuation analysis is the basis of performance-based regulation. In this paper, we performed a simulation-based evacuation analysis on a passenger ship, which is usually used in the plying between land and islands in Korea, with EXODUS system. Through inspecting the results from this analysis in more detail, we can make a proposal to improve the safety of passenger ship. Finally we describe the features of IMEX(Intelligent Model for Extrication Simulation), a new evacuation model being developed in KRISO.

• International Commerce and Information Review
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• v.16 no.3
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• pp.73-96
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• 2014

The purpose of this research is to evaluate a short-term export demand forecasting model reflecting individual passenger vehicle brands and market characteristics by using Vector Autoregressive (VAR) models that are based on multivariate time-series model. The short-term export demand forecasting model was created by discerning theoretical potential factors that affect the short-term export demand of individual passenger vehicle brands. Quarterly short-term export demand forecasting model for two Korean small vehicle brands (Accent and Avante) were created by using VAR model. Predictive value at t+1 quarter calculated with the forecasting models for each passenger vehicle brand and the actual amount of sales were compared and evaluated by altering subject period by one quarter. As a result, RMSE % of Accent and Avante was 4.3% and 20.0% respectively. They amount to 3.9 days for Accent and 18.4 days for Avante when calculated per daily sales amount. This shows that the short-term export demand forecasting model of this research is highly usable in terms of prediction and consistency.

• Transactions of the Korean Society of Automotive Engineers
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• v.5 no.5
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• pp.170-177
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• 1997

In this study, an analysis technique using simple beam model for predicting structure crashworthiness of the passenger car side impacted with an angle by another passenger car was investigated. The simple model was composed of major beam-like side structure which carry almost all side impact load. A procedure of component collapse test, calculation of load carrying capability and dynamic simulation was carryed out sequentially. Transient dynamic algorithms and a computer program to simulate deformations and motions of the impacted car was developed. The developed procedure was applied to a 3 door passenger car side impacted with an angle of 75 degree and the analysis results show good agreements with the actual test results.

• Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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• 2008.10c
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• pp.199-201
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• 2008

In this paper, We studied optimum service model of passenger car monitoring system at limited wireless bandwidth subway and railway. High bandwidth is better if we need more services. But, high bandwidth requires more cost at tunnel of subway. More bandwidth make receive sensitivity to bad. We deduced best bandwidth of subway wireless transmission system reflecting the cost of installation and efficiency of system. Consequently, we decide efficient service model of passenger car monitoring system.

• Journal of the Korea Society for Simulation
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• v.20 no.4
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• pp.149-155
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• 2011

This paper presents simulations of advance evacuation analysis using a cellular automata model for passenger behavior in an emergency of passenger ship. The proposed cellular automata model divides the space in a uniform grid called "cell." Each passenger is located in a cell and moves to another cell according to a set of local rules assumed to be associated with the individual and crowd behaviors of the passengers. To verify the usefulness of the proposed cellular automata model, 11 tests, all of which are specified in International Maritime Organization Maritime Safety Committee/ Circulation 1238 (IMO MSC/Circ. 1238), were implemented, and it was confirmed that all the requirements of these tests had been met.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.26 no.6
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• pp.7-15
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• 2008

Due to the limitations in the statistical data, the existing studies adopted rough methodologies with strong assumptions in the estimation of international passenger travel demand forecast in the ASEAN region. This study aims to develop international passenger travel demand models using scientific methodologies. This study proposes a direct demand model using the immigration and emigration data between countries in the region. This is because of the difficulty of estimating trip generation and trip distribution separately due to the data limitation in the region. As there does not exist the mode choice model for the region, this study estimates a mode choice model using the Stated Preference technique. The mode choice model is separated into three categories of models according to the range of distance between the origin and destination of travel; this is to reflect the different behavior in mode choice according to the travel distance. The result of model estimations suggests that the estimated models produce resonable results statistically. It is expected that the proposed models are useful for the future travel demand estimation in the ASEAN region.

• Proceedings of the KSME Conference
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• 2001.11a
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• pp.623-628
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• 2001

The styling of passenger car wheels and their effect on vehicle appearance has increased in importance in recent years. The wheel designer has been given the task of insuring that a wheel design meets its engineering objectives without affecting the styling theme. The wheel and tire system is considered as a vehicle component whose dynamic modal information of the tire/wheel system are employed in the modal synthesis model of the vehicle. The Vibration characteristics of a passenger car wheel play an important role to judge a ride comfortability and quality for a passenger car. In this paper, the vibration characteristics of a AI-alloy and steel wheel for passenger car are studied. Natural frequency, damping and mode shape are determined experimentally by frequency response function method. Results show that wheel material property, size and design are parameter for shift of natural frequency and damping.