• Journal of the Korean Society of Manufacturing Technology Engineers
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• v.19 no.4
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• pp.529-538
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• 2010

This paper presents a reliability-based topology optimization (RBTO) based on bidirectional evolutionary structural optimization (BESO). In design of a structure, uncertain conditions such as material property, operational load and dimensional variation should be considered. Deterministic topology optimization (DTO) is performed without considering the uncertainties related to the design variables. However, the RBTO can consider the uncertainty variables because it can deal with the probabilistic constraints. The reliability index approach (RIA) and the performance measure approach (PMA) are adopted to evaluate the probabilistic constraints in this study. In order to apply the BESO to the RBTO, sensitivity number for each element is defined as the change in the reliability index of the structure due to removal of each element. Smoothing scheme is also used to eliminate checkerboard patterns in topology optimization. The limit state indicates the margin of safety between the resistance (constraints) and the load of structures. The limit State function expresses to evaluate reliability index from finite element analysis. Numerical examples are presented to compare each optimal topology obtained from RBTO and DTO each other. It is verified that the RBTO based on BESO can be effectively performed from the results.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.5 no.2 s.18
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• pp.211-218
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• 2004

In a large owner organization, a program manager of multiple maintenance and remodeling projects has experienced increasing scale and complexity of coordinating the M/R projects with in-house technicians who belong to multiple trade shops. This paper proposes a dual-level hierarchical planning strategy that consists of a program master plan in the long-term horizon and a master construction schedule in an operational scheduling window. A rolling horizon approach to the program master plan is proposed to deal with the external uncertainty of unknown stream of project requests. A resource-constrained scheduling algorithm is developed to generate the master construction schedule in a scheduling window. During development of the algorithm, more emphasis is placed on long-term organizational resource continuity, especially flow management of program constraint resources, than ephemeral events of an individual activity and project. Monte Carlo simulation experiments of three scheduling windows are used to evaluate the relative performance of the proposed scheduling algorithm against three popular scheduling heuristics for resource-constrained multiple projects.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2022.05a
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• pp.4-4
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• 2022

낙동강 하구 환경/생태 복원을 위하여 "해수유입"으로 하구환경을 조성하는 사업이 추진되고 있으며, 해수 유입 규모와 빈도에 따른 생태환경변화를 예측하는 연구수요가 증가하고 있는 상황이다. 보다 구체적으로는 단기간의 해수유입에 의한 흐름 및 염분 확산범위 예측과 더불어 보다 장기간의 지형변화, 수질환경 변화, 생태환경 변화 등에 대한 예측이 필요한 상황이다. 그리고 그 예측의 대부분을 수치모델에 크게 의존하고 있는 상황이다. 그러나, 수치모형을 이용한 단기 예측은 가까운 미래에 대한 입력조건을 사용하여야 하기 때문에 입력조건에 대한 불확실성이 포함되고, 환경생태모형의 불확실성에 따른 예측 한계 등으로 인하여 오차가 누적되기 때문에 직접적인 활용에 크게 제한이 따를 수 있다. 또한 운영과정에서 어떤 분산, 편향 오차 등이 지속적으로 발생하는 경우, 모델 예측 결과에 대한 신뢰수준이 크게 감소하기 때문에 모델의 적절한 운영기법이 요구된다. 모델은 관심을 가지는 자연현상에 대한 근사(approximation)이고, 예상하지 못한 오차가 발생할 수 있기 때문에 관측 자료를 이용한 자료동화(data assimilation) 과정이 운영모델에서는 필수적인 부분이다. 이론적인 기반이 탄탄한 유체역학 기반 기상예측의 경우에도, 가용한 모든 지점의 관측 자료를 이용한 자료 동화과정을 통하여 모델 예측 결과를 개선하여 나가는 과정을 포함하여 운영하고 있다. 이 과정이 포함하는 중요한 개념은 수치모델이 가지고 있는 (예측 수준의) 한계를 인정하고, 수치모델에 전적으로 의존하는 것이 아니라 관측 자료를 이용하여 그 한계를 저감하여 나가는 과정이다. 모니터링은 모델의 한계를 알려주는 지표이다. 모델링과 모니터링의 불가피한 상호의존 관계를 의미하는 이 개념은 단기간의 흐름, 염분 확산 예측으로 한정되지 않고, 장기적인 변화가 예상되는 생태환경변화 모델에도 적용이 된다. 즉각적인 변화보다는 장기적인 관점에서 파악하여야 하는 생태학적인 변화는 보다 다양한 인자가 관여하기 때문에 어떤 측면에서는 모델보다는 적절한 빈도와 항목에 대한 관측계획 수립(monitoring design)이 더 중요하다고 할 수 있다. 이론적인 질량보존(mass conservation) 방정식을 기반으로 하는 모델은 다양한 현실적인 인자의 영향을 받기 때문에 모델의 한계를 인정하고, 모니터링 자료를 적극적으로 활용하여 불확실성을 저감하는 접근방식이 요구된다.

• Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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• v.31 no.3
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• pp.158-169
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• 2019

A probabilistic model that can predict the residual useful lifetime of structure is formulated by using the gamma process which is one of the stochastic processes. The formulated stochastic model can take into account both the sampling uncertainty associated with damages measured up to now and the temporal uncertainty of cumulative damage over time. A method estimating several parameters of stochastic model is additionally proposed by introducing of the least square method and the method of moments, so that the age of a structure, the operational environment, and the evolution of damage with time can be considered. Some features related to the residual useful lifetime are firstly investigated into through the sensitivity analysis on parameters under a simple setting of single damage data measured at the current age. The stochastic model are then applied to the rubble-mound breakwater straightforwardly. The parameters of gamma process can be estimated for several experimental data on the damage processes of armor rocks of rubble-mound breakwater. The expected damage levels over time, which are numerically simulated with the estimated parameters, are in very good agreement with those from the flume testing. It has been found from various numerical calculations that the probabilities exceeding the failure limit are converged to the constraint that the model must be satisfied after lasting for a long time from now. Meanwhile, the expected residual useful lifetimes evaluated from the failure probabilities are seen to be different with respect to the behavior of damage history. As the coefficient of variation of cumulative damage is becoming large, in particular, it has been shown that the expected residual useful lifetimes have significant discrepancies from those of the deterministic regression model. This is mainly due to the effect of sampling and temporal uncertainties associated with damage, by which the first time to failure tends to be widely distributed. Therefore, the stochastic model presented in this paper for predicting the residual useful lifetime of structure can properly implement the probabilistic assessment on current damage state of structure as well as take account of the temporal uncertainty of future cumulative damage.

• Information Systems Review
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• v.12 no.3
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• pp.1-17
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• 2010

IT Systems based on Global Single Instance (GSI) can manage a corporation's internal information, resources and assets effectively and raise business efficiency through consolidation of their business process and productivity. But, It has also dangerous factor that IT system fault failure can cause a state of paralysis of a business itself, followed by huge loss of money. Many of studies have been conducted about fault-tolerance based on using redundant component. The concept of fault tolerance is rather simple but, designing and adopting fault-tolerance system is not easy due to uncertainty of a type and frequency of faults. So, Operational fault management that working after developed IT system is important more and more along with technical fault management. This study proposes the fault management process that including a pre-estimation method using TRM (Technical Reference Model) check point and event rule engine. And also proposes a effect of fault-free process through built fault management system to representative company of Hi-tech industry. After adopting fault-free process, a number of failure decreased by 46%, a failure time decreased by 56% and the Opportunity loss costs decreased by 77%.

• Journal of Korea Technology Innovation Society
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• v.19 no.4
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• pp.799-821
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• 2016

Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) are essential systems for Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (ISR) operations in current battlespace. And its importance will be getting extended because of complexity and uncertainty of battlespace. In this study, we forecast the advancement of 96 UAVs during the period of 32 years from 1982 to 2014 using TFDEA. TFDEA is a quantitative technology forecasting method which is characterized as non-parametric and non-statistical mathematical programming. Inman et al. (2006) showed that TFDEA is more accurate in forecasting compared with classical econometrics (e.g. regression). This study got 4.06% point of annual technological rate of change (RoC) for UAVs by applying TFDEA. And most UAVs in the period are inefficient according to the global SOA frontiers. That is because the countries which develop UAVs are in the middle class of technological level, so more than 60% of world UAVs markets are shared by North America and Europe which are advanced countries in terms of technological maturity level. This study could give some insights for UAVs development and its advancement. And also can be used for evaluating the adequacy of Required Operational Capability (ROC) of suggested future systems and managing the progress of Research and Development (R&D).

• Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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• v.34 no.6_1
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• pp.1101-1117
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• 2018

The clear sky radiance (CSR) is one of the baseline products of the Himawari-8 which was launched on October, 2014. The CSR contributes to numerical weather prediction (NWP) accuracy through the data assimilation; especially water vapor channel CSR has good impact on the forecast in high level atmosphere. The focus of this study is the quality analysis of the CSR of the Himawari-8 geostationary satellite. We used the operational CSR (or clear sky brightness temperature) products in JMA (Japan Meteorological Agency) as observation data; for a background field, we employed the CSR simulated using the Radiative Transfer for TOVS (RTTOV) with the atmospheric state from the global model of KMA (Korea Meteorological Administration). We investigated data characteristics and analyzed observation minus background statistics of each channel with respect to regional and seasonal variability. Overall results for the analysis period showed that the water vapor channels (6.2, 6.9, and $7.3{\mu}m$) had a positive mean bias where as the window channels(10.4, 11.2, and $12.4{\mu}m$) had a negative mean bias. The magnitude of biases and Uncertainty result varied with the regional and the seasonal conditions, thus these should be taken into account when using CSR data. This study is helpful for the pre-processing of Himawari-8/Advanced Himawari Imager (AHI) CSR data assimilation. Furthermore, this study also can contribute to preparing for the utilization of products from the Geo-Kompsat-2A (GK-2A), which will be launched in 2018 by the National Meteorological Satellite Center (NMSC) of KMA.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.55 no.7
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• pp.505-513
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• 2022

Recently, uncertainty in predicting available water resources is gradually increasing due to climate change and extreme weather conditions. Social interest in water management such as flood and drought prevention is also increasing, and after the unification of water management implemented in 2018, domestic water management is facing a major turning point. As part of such strengthening of water management capabilities, various studies are being conducted to utilize a hydropower dam for flood control and water supply purposes, which was mainly operated for hydroelectric power generation. However, since the dam evaluation methods developed based on a multi-purpose dam are being applied to hydropower dams, an additional evaluation approach that can consider the characteristics of hydropower dams is required. In this study, a new water supply capacity evaluation method is presented in consideration of the operational characteristics of hydropower dams in terms of water supply, and a connected reservoir simulation method is proposed to evaluate the comprehensive water supply capacity of a dam group operating in a river basin. The presented method was applied to the hydropower dams located in the Bukhan River basin, and the results of the water supply yield of individual dams and multi-reservoir systems were compared and analyzed. In the future, the role of hydropower dams for water supply during drought is expected to become more important, and this study can be used for sustainable domestic water management research using hydropower dams.

• Information Systems Review
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• v.19 no.4
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• pp.1-25
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• 2017

Despite high uncertainty on financial return, firms have continuously increased their investment on technologies because they recognize the potential value of technology investment in terms of enhancing operational efficiency and sustaining competitive advantage. Notably, an individual technology investment pattern or strategy within an industry may ultimately lead to significant differences in business performance. Hence, we first categorized technology investment into traditional research and development investment and information technology investment. Afterward, we examined the effects of each pattern with combination of the two types of technology investment on business performance according to firm size and position in the supply chain through fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis. Data collected from 562 manufacturing firms in Korea were used in the analysis. Results showed that large-sized firms were slightly affected with microscopic patterns in their technology investments, whereas small firms were highly affected with their technology investment patterns and their positions in the supply chain. The findings implied that a small enterprise requires an appropriate technology investment strategy to achieve successful business outcomes.

• 한국벤처창업학회:학술대회논문집
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• 2006.04a
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• pp.45-75
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• 2006

How much influence does a business plan have on a corporate performance? Whilst previous studies and literatures all assert a strong correlation between the two, very few have actually conducted practical analyses to support that. This study takes an empirical approach in its analysis of Korea' s small and medium-sized enterprises (SME) with the view to finding an answer to the question. A business plan' s components, which have to date been suggested only in theory and in concept, have been selected through the study of literatures and preliminary examination. The selected components were then narrowed down into five factors of productivity, implementation, operational direction, product/service and customer accessibility by applying factor analysis. With which items to measure corporate performance is also an important question as results differ depending on which measurement items were used. For the purpose of this study, corporate performance was classified into effectiveness, adaptability and efficiency to measure how greatly each is influenced by the components of a business plan. Results show that effectiveness and adaptability have a positive (+) influence on corporate performance. The regression model seems to explain effectiveness particularly well. However, different directions of influences were showed in explain power of the research model were not high. And it can be interpreted that implementation of the plan is as important as the establishment of it. Thus a good corporate performance is to be had only under an excellent plan and following an excellent implementation. In most of the companies surveyed, business plans were established regularly led by the intense involvement of the CEO. Such plans were then used in internal operations, such as guiding operational direction and measuring corporate performance. Unlike general expectations, relatively few companies used them in financing from external sources such as banks or venture capitals. These findings are different from previous studies conducted in this field. Also, as market uncertainty was pointed out as the biggest obstacle to business planning. a manager must pay more attention to acquiring external information and knowledge so as to minimize it.