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A Study on Technology Forecasting of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) Using TFDEA  

Jung, Byungki (국방대학교)
Kim, H.C. (아주대학교)
Lee, Choonjoo (국방대학교)
Publication Information
Journal of Korea Technology Innovation Society / v.19, no.4, 2016 , pp. 799-821 More about this Journal
Abstract
Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) are essential systems for Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (ISR) operations in current battlespace. And its importance will be getting extended because of complexity and uncertainty of battlespace. In this study, we forecast the advancement of 96 UAVs during the period of 32 years from 1982 to 2014 using TFDEA. TFDEA is a quantitative technology forecasting method which is characterized as non-parametric and non-statistical mathematical programming. Inman et al. (2006) showed that TFDEA is more accurate in forecasting compared with classical econometrics (e.g. regression). This study got 4.06% point of annual technological rate of change (RoC) for UAVs by applying TFDEA. And most UAVs in the period are inefficient according to the global SOA frontiers. That is because the countries which develop UAVs are in the middle class of technological level, so more than 60% of world UAVs markets are shared by North America and Europe which are advanced countries in terms of technological maturity level. This study could give some insights for UAVs development and its advancement. And also can be used for evaluating the adequacy of Required Operational Capability (ROC) of suggested future systems and managing the progress of Research and Development (R&D).
Keywords
Technology Forecasting; DEA; TFDEA; Unmanned System; UAV;
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Times Cited By KSCI : 2  (Citation Analysis)
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