• Title/Summary/Keyword: Nonstationary statistics

Search Result 44, Processing Time 0.023 seconds

An Empirical Study on Explosive Volatility Test with Possibly Nonstationary GARCH(1, 1) Models

  • Lee, Sangyeol;Noh, Jungsik
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
    • /
    • v.20 no.3
    • /
    • pp.207-215
    • /
    • 2013
  • In this paper, we implement an empirical study to test whether the time series of daily returns in stock and Won/USD exchange markets is strictly stationary or explosive. The results indicate that only a few series show nonstationary volatility when dramatic events erupted; in addition, this nonstationary behavior occurs more often in the Won/USD exchange market than in the stock market.

Volatility-nonstationary GARCH(1,1) models featuring threshold-asymmetry and power transformation (분계점 비대칭과 멱변환 특징을 가진 비정상-변동성 모형)

  • Choi, Sun Woo;Hwang, Sun Young;Lee, Sung Duck
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
    • /
    • v.33 no.6
    • /
    • pp.713-722
    • /
    • 2020
  • Contrasted with the standard symmetric GARCH models, we consider a broad class of threshold-asymmetric models to analyse financial time series exhibiting asymmetric volatility. By further introducing power transformations, we add more flexibilities to the asymmetric class, thereby leading to power transformed and asymmetric volatility models. In particular, the paper is concerned with the nonstationary volatilities in which conditions for integrated volatility and explosive volatility are separately discussed. Dow Jones Industrial Average is analysed for illustration.

Orthogonal Least Square Approach to Nonstationary Source Separation

  • Choi Heeyoul;Choi Seungjin
    • Proceedings of the Acoustical Society of Korea Conference
    • /
    • spring
    • /
    • pp.41-44
    • /
    • 2002
  • Blind source separation (BSS) is a fundamental problem that is encountered in many practical applications. In most existing methods, stationary sources are considered higher-order statistics is necessary either explicitly or implicitly. But, many natural signals are nonstationary, and it is possible to perform BSS using only second-order statistics. Our method is based on only second order statistics. The algorithms are developed using the gradient descent method in orthogonality constraint and their performance is confirmed by numerical experiments.

  • PDF

Generalized Durbin-Watson Statistics in the Nonstationary Seasonal Time Series Model

  • Cho, Sin-Sup;Kim, Byung-Soo;Park, Young J.
    • Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
    • /
    • v.26 no.3
    • /
    • pp.365-382
    • /
    • 1997
  • In this paper we study the behaviors of the generalized Durbin-Watson (DW) statistics when the nonstationary seasonal time series regression model is misspecified. It is observed that when the series is seasonally integrated the generalized DW statistic for the seasonal period order autocorrelation converges in probability to zero while teh generalized DW statistic for the first order autocorrelation has nondegenerate asymptotic distribution. When the series is regularly and seasonally integrated the generalized DW for the first order autocorrelation still converges in probability to zero.

  • PDF

Some model misspecification problems for time series: A Monte Carlo investigation

  • Dong-Bin Jeong
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
    • /
    • v.5 no.1
    • /
    • pp.55-67
    • /
    • 1998
  • Recent work by Shin and Sarkar (1996) examines model misspecification problems for nonstationary time series. Shin and Sarkar introduce a general regression model with integrated errors and one system of integrated regressors and discuss the limiting distributions of the OLS estimators and the usual OLS statistics such as $\hat{\sigma^2}$t, DW and $R^2$. We analyze three different model misspecification problems through a Monte Carlo study and investigate each model misspecification problem. Our Monte Carlo experiments show that DW and $R^2$ can be in general used as diagnostic tools to detect spurious regression, misspecification of nonstationary autoregressive and polynomial regression models.

  • PDF

Change points detection for nonstationary multivariate time series

  • Yeonjoo Park;Hyeongjun Im;Yaeji Lim
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
    • /
    • v.30 no.4
    • /
    • pp.369-388
    • /
    • 2023
  • In this paper, we develop the two-step procedure that detects and estimates the position of structural changes for multivariate nonstationary time series, either on mean parameters or second-order structures. We first investigate the presence of mean structural change by monitoring data through the aggregated cumulative sum (CUSUM) type statistic, a sequential procedure identifying the likely position of the change point on its trend. If no mean change point is detected, the proposed method proceeds to scan the second-order structural change by modeling the multivariate nonstationary time series with a multivariate locally stationary Wavelet process, allowing the time-localized auto-correlation and cross-dependence. Under this framework, the estimated dynamic spectral matrices derived from the local wavelet periodogram capture the time-evolving scale-specific auto- and cross-dependence features of data. We then monitor the change point from the lower-dimensional approximated space of the spectral matrices over time by applying the dynamic principal component analysis. Different from existing methods requiring prior information on the type of changes between mean and covariance structures as an input for the implementation, the proposed algorithm provides the output indicating the type of change and the estimated location of its occurrence. The performance of the proposed method is demonstrated in simulations and the analysis of two real finance datasets.

Second-order nonstationary source separation; Natural gradient learning (2차 Nonstationary 신호 분리: 자연기울기 학습)

  • 최희열;최승진
    • Proceedings of the Korean Information Science Society Conference
    • /
    • 2002.04b
    • /
    • pp.289-291
    • /
    • 2002
  • Host of source separation methods focus on stationary sources so higher-order statistics is necessary In this paler we consider a problem of source separation when sources are second-order nonstationary stochastic processes . We employ the natural gradient method and develop learning algorithms for both 1inear feedback and feedforward neural networks. Thus our algorithms possess equivariant property Local stabi1iffy analysis shows that separating solutions are always locally stable stationary points of the proposed algorithms, regardless of probability distributions of

  • PDF

Testion a Multivariate Process for Multiple Unit Roots (다변량 시계열 자료의 다중단위근 검정법)

  • Key Il Shin
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
    • /
    • v.7 no.1
    • /
    • pp.103-112
    • /
    • 1994
  • An asymptotic property of the estimated eigenvalues for multivariate AR(p) process which consists of vector of nonstationary process and vector of stationary process is developed. All components of the nonstationary process are assumed to reveal random walk behavior. The asymptotic property is helpful in understanding multiple unit roots. In this paper we show the stationay part in multivariate AR(p) process does not affect the limiting distribution of estimated eigenvalues associated with the nonstationary process. A test statistic based on the ordinary least squares estimator for testing a certain number of multiple unit roots is suggested.

  • PDF

Model Misspecification in Nonstationary Seasonal Time Series

  • Sung K. Ahn;Park, Young J.;Cho, Sin-Sup
    • Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
    • /
    • v.27 no.1
    • /
    • pp.67-90
    • /
    • 1998
  • In this paper we analytically study model misspecification that arises in regression analysis of nonstationary seasonal time series. We assume the underlying data generating process is a seasonally or a regularly and seasonally integrated process. We first study consequences of totally misspecified cases where seasonal indicator variables, a linear time trend, or another statistically independent seasonally integrated process are used as predictor variables in order to model the nonstationary seasonal behavior of the dependent variable. Then we study consequences of partially misspecified cases where the dependent variable and a predictor variable are cointegrated at some, but not all of the frequencies corresponding to the nonstationary roots.

  • PDF

Adaptive Threshold for Speech Enhancement in Nonstationary Noisy Environments (비정상 잡음환경에서 음질향상을 위한 적응 임계 치 알고리즘)

  • Lee, Soo-Jeong;Kim, Sun-Hyob
    • The Journal of the Acoustical Society of Korea
    • /
    • v.27 no.7
    • /
    • pp.386-393
    • /
    • 2008
  • This paper proposes a new approach for speech enhancement in highly nonstationary noisy environments. The spectral subtraction (SS) is a well known technique for speech enhancement in stationary noisy environments. However, in real world, noise is mostly nonstationary. The proposed method uses an auto control parameter for an adaptive threshold to work well in highly nonstationary noisy environments. Especially, the auto control parameter is affected by a linear function associated with an a posteriori signal to noise ratio (SNR) according to the increase or the decrease of the noise level. The proposed algorithm is combined with spectral subtraction (SS) using a hangover scheme (HO) for speech enhancement. The performances of the proposed method are evaluated ITU-T P.835 signal distortion (SIG) and the segment signal to-noise ratio (SNR) in various and highly nonstationary noisy environments and is superior to that of conventional spectral subtraction (SS) using a hangover (HO) and SS using a minimum statistics (MS) methods.