• 대한교통학회지
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• 제11권2호
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• pp.5-26
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• 1993

In order to analyze travel mode choice behavior, behavioral models including logit model, based on revealed preference theory, have been using easily measurable variables such as individual socioeconomic characteristics and physical attributes of travel modes. But some recent attitudinal models of travel choice behavior have implied that the negligence of individual psychological variables and individual choice constraints in travel mode choice might preclude better prediction of individual travel mode choice behavior. In this context, this study was attempted to reconstruct an attitudinal model(AM), especially focused on the decision rules in travel mode choice decision making process, consistent with the conceptual framework relating individual attitude and choice constraints to choice behavior. And to evaluate the strengths of the AM to other comparative models(logit, linear-additive, conjunctive, lexicographic model) in predicting travel mode choice bebavior, an empirical study of the mode choice in work-trip to CBD in Seoul was performed. According to the results the percent of correct prediction(PCP) derived from the AM was higher than those derived from comparative models by at least 7 to 20% in predicting travel mode choice. But each model produced a different prediction accuracy depending on market segmentation by travel modal users, individual socioeconomic characteristics, transportation system characteristics, and satisfaction levels. The finding that different groups divided by a certain criterion employ different decision rules supports the necessity of developing a choice model such as the AM combining compensatory and noncompensatory decision rules, and suggests that a proposed transportation system management plan or policy may have different effects on each group.

• 대한교통학회지
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• 제28권4호
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• pp.119-128
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• 2010

통행자의 통행수단선택행태는 개인의 사회경제적 속성과 수단의 속성뿐만 아니라 통행자 개인의 잠재된 통행행태 즉, 통행행태적 선호도 역시 큰 영향을 미친다. 통행수단선택행태에 특정한 영향을 미치는 잠재통행행태를 수단선택모형에 반영한다면 비관측요인에서 기인하는 오차를 크게 줄일 수 있고, 통행행태에 대한 다양하고 보다 합리적인 해석이 가능하다. 본 연구에서는 한강 수상대중교통 도입에 따른 수단선택행태조사 자료를 활용하여 잠재변수를 정의하고 새로운 수단에 대한 분석이 가능한 RP/SP 결합모형을 구축하였다. 잠재변수는 행태설문조사자료를 기반으로 요인분석을 통해 계량화하였다. 모형구축결과 통행자들의 잠재된 통행행태는 수단선택행태에 유의한 영향을 미치고, 잠재변수를 반영한 경우 모형의 적합도가 향상되었다. 또한 잠재행태 관점에서도 RP/SP 결합모형이 SP모형에 비해 합리적인 것으로 분석되었다.

• 대한교통학회지
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• 제7권1호
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• pp.35-42
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• 1989

The multinomial logit model has been applied for various choice problems. Among others, the joint destination mode choice, the mode choice and the route choice are the three major modeling topics for korean transportation planners. This paper examines with real world data (the Olympic road and its competing two major arterials) the usefulness of a Logit route choice model. Quites surpisingly, it is found that the multinomial route choice behavioral model calibrated for this study based on (0,1) individula data base can not provide a good estimate for O-D trips less than 6㎞. 400data points and 3case studies might not be sufficient for a sound conclusion. It is, however, believed from a series of similar studies conducted by the authors that the route choice behavior is more sensitive (more demand elastic with respect to travel time changes) than the mode choice and the shorter trip, the more sensitive. The travel time parameters for destination choice models are usually smalle than the travel time parameters for mode choice models and these parameters (for mode choice models) turn our smaller than the travel time parameters for route choice models from this study. Table 2 in this paper shows parameter changes for three different markets and Table 3 shows the modeling errors when the estimated individual probabilities are aggregated into a route level.

• 대한교통학회지
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• 제13권4호
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• pp.31-45
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• 1995

In recent year, especially in the mode choice analysis, it has been perceived that the importance of individual performance data using stated preference(SP) experiments as well as revealed preference data . Since SP experiments present respondent with various hypothetical alternatives, which are produced by a combination of a number of different attribute levels, and ask them to indicate a preference, it is possible to analyze travel behavior under a situation of potential environment change such as proposed alternative mode of transportation. The basic problems, however, remains that SP are not consistent with the actual travel behaviors and the research reports for stability of mode choice model using SP data has not been sufficient. Under this background, this study is to examine the characteristics of mode choice model using the SP data by the following items. $\circled1$ Analysis of factors affecting the mode choice behavior by the variance analysis of orthogonal-arrays-table $\circled2$ The reliability of SP data by transfer intention data $\circled3$ The stability of SP responses obtained from repetitive question by the comparison of model coefficient specified by each repetitive data. $\circled4$ The stability of ranking data in mode choice model For the analysis, we assumed subway operations in the Gwang-Ju , and set up a choice-set of hypothetical options based on Experimental Design Method.

• 대한교통학회지
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• 제10권3호
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• pp.21-42
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• 1992

As for the travel demand analysis of the past, forcasting has been conducted by the use of revealed preference(RP) informations about actual or observed choices made by individuals. Forcasting method using RP data needs implicit assumptions that there will be no remarkable changes in existing transport conditions. However in case of occuring the great changes in existing conditions or adding a new choice-set of hypothetical options, it is very difficult to predict future travel demand. Fortunately in recent years, especially in the mode choice analysis, it has been perceived that the importance of individual performance data using stated preference(SP) experiments as well as RP data. But the research reports has not been reported sufficiently from models estimated using SP data. Under this background, we analyze the factors affecting the mode choice behavior as a fundamental study against the modelling task with SP choice data. For this analysis, we assumed subway operations in the secondary cities where there are no subway lines until now, and set up a choice-set of hypothetical options based on Experimental Design Method.

• 한국항만경제학회지
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• 제32권4호
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• pp.183-192
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• 2016

항공 및 해상교통수단의 발전과 소득 및 여가시간의 증대로 해외로 출국하는 여행객의 수는 매년 증가하고 있는 실정이다. 하지만 충청남도는 한국에서 유일하게 공항이 없는 지역으로 충남도민들은 해외 여행 시 인천 등 타 지역을 통해 여행을 하여야 하는 불편함을 겪고 있다. 이에 본 연구는 충남도민들의 접근교통에 따른 운송수단 선택행동에 관하여 분석하였다. 이를 위하여 Stated-preference(SP) data를 활용하여 Multinominal Logit Model(MNL)을 이용하였다. 충남도민들이 해외여행 시 운송수단 선택의 경우 거주지에 따라 다른 특성을 보이는 것으로 분석되었다. 또한 거주지-공항/항만까지 접근성이 공항/항만-목적지까지 운송보다 교통수단 선택행동에 더 큰 영향을 미치는 것으로 분석됐다. 특히 접근소요시간 및 접근교통 운영 빈도요인이 가장 큰 영향을 미치고 있는 반면 운송시간이 상대적으로 적은 영향을 미치고 있는 것으로 분석되었다. 운송수단의 선택은 여객터미널 선정에도 영향을 미치는 것으로 여객터미널 운영사는 접근성을 중요하게 고려하여야 한다. 접근교통수단의 개선은 인천공항을 이용하여 중국으로 출국하는 이용객 중 일부 여객 수요가 전환될 수 있다는 결론이 도출되었다.

• 한국조경학회지
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• 제28권1호
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• pp.19-28
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• 2000

The purposes of this study are two folds: a) to introduce conjoint choice model to research the choice behavior of theme park users, and b) to suggest the strategies to strengthen the competitiveness of theme parks. The major four theme parks in Seoul metropolitan areas were selected as study areas. A leading polling agency was employed to select 432 respondents by probability sampling and to conduct face-to-face interview. Both alternative generating and choice set generating fractional factorial design were conducted simultaneously to meet the necessary and sufficient conditions for calibration of the conjoint choice model. Dummy coding was used to represent the attribute levels, and the alternative-specific model was calibrated. The goodness-of-fit of the model was quite satisfactory($\rho$$^2$=0.47950), and most parameters values had to expected sign and magnitude. Car was preferred transport mode to shuttle bus for visiting theme parks ; however the most ideal attribute levels only were estimated significantly. Most attribute levels of shuttle bus were estimated significantly except the Dream Land, which is the least attractive park among study areas. Simulation results showed that the shuttle bus was a mode worth providing to switch the current car dominant visiting pattern of theme parks, which will be one the effective strategies to attract more patrons, especially for potential users adjacent to parks. Several ideals were suggested for future researches, in terms of utilization of more general utility function and new base alternative, and inclusion of more salient attributes such as constraints in the model.

• 한국조경학회지
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• 제28권2호
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• pp.18-27
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• 2000

The importance of constraints has been one of major issues in recreation for prediction of choice behavior; however, traditional conjoint choice model did not consider the effects of these variables or fail to integrate them into choice model adequately. The purposes of this research are (a) to estimate the effects of constraints in theme park choice behavior by the constraints-induced conjoint choice model, and (b) to test additional explanatory power of the additional constraints in this suggested model against the more parsimonious traditional model. A leading polling agency was employed to select respondents. Both alternative generating and choice set generating fractional factorial design were conducted to meet the necessary and sufficient conditions for calibration of the constraints-induced conjoint choice model. Th alternative-specific model was calibrated. The log-likelihood ratio test revealed that suggested model was accepted in the favor of the traditional model, and the goodness-of-fit($\rho$$^2$) of suggested and traditional model was 0.48427 and 0.47950, respectively. There was no difference between traditional and suggested model in estimates of attribute levels of car and shuttle bus because alternatives were created to estimate the effects of constraints independently from mode related variables. Most parameters values of constraints had the expected sign and magnitude: the results reflected the characteristics of the theme parks, such as abundance of natural attractions and poor accessibility in Everland, location of major fun rides indoor in Lotte World, city park like characteristics of Dream Land, and traffic jams in Seoul. Instead of the multinomial logit model, the nested logit model is recommended for future researches because this model more reasonably reflects the real decision-making process in park choice. Development of new methodology too integrate this hierarchical decision-making into choice model is anticipated.

• 대한교통학회지
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• 제13권4호
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• pp.47-59
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• 1995

The main purpose of this study is identifying the factors which affect the mode choice behavior of work trips. Disaggregate behavioral approach is used for the analysis . The data were collected using the questionnaire survey method in Taegu. Two models were developed in this study which are multinomial logit model(MODEL-1) for auto, taxi and bus and multinomial logit model (MODEL-2) for auto, taxi, bus and subway. The stated preference (SP) data were used for the analysis of the subway mode choice behavior. MODEL-1 provide reasonable results for the future application. A multinomial model (MODEL-2) developed using the stated preference(SP) data was tested for the use of future transportation mode. It is four that the those models provides reasonable results in terms of behavioral and statistical consideration.

• 대한교통학회지
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• 제21권4호
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• pp.57-66
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• 2003

로짓모형은 선택대안에 대한 확률 계산이 용이하고, 설명변수의 파라메타 추정이 용이하기 때문에 교통 수단 선택모형으로 널리 쓰여지고 있다. 그러나 이러한 로짓모형은 수단선택 효용함수의 오차항 분포가 선택 대안간에 독립적이고, 그 분산이 동일하다는(IID:Independent and Identically Distributed)가정을 내포한다. 본 연구는 수단선택 효용오차의 분산이 수단간에 동일하다는 가정을 완화시키는 이분산 로짓모형 추정에 관한 연구이다. 수단선택 효용오차항의 동분산성을 극복함으로써 보다 현실적인 통행자의 수단선택행태를 반영하는 로짓모형을 추정하는데 본 연구의 목적이 있다. 이를 위해 로짓모형 오차항의 분산과 직접적인 관련이 있는 규모인자(scale factor)를 도입하였다. 이는 대중 교통과 승용차의 통행시간차이에 따른 이분산성을 고려하도록 정의되었으며, 이를 통행시간 파라메타 추정에 활용하였다. 본 연구에서 개발된 이분산 로짓모형의 추정 결과. 통행자의 통행시간이 증가하면서 대중교통수단과 승용차의 통행시간차이가 동일하더라도 통행자의 대중교통 수단선택확률이 차이를 보임으로 현실적인 통행자의 수단선택 행태를 반영하는 것으로 판명되었다.