• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.25 no.1
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• pp.15-27
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• 2018

Parametric method of flood frequency analysis involves fitting of a probability distribution to observed flood data. When record length at a given site is relatively shorter and hard to apply the asymptotic theory, an alternative distribution to the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution is often used. In this study, we consider the beta-P distribution (BPD) as an alternative to the GEV and other well-known distributions for modeling extreme events of small or moderate samples as well as highly skewed or heavy tailed data. The L-moments ratio diagram shows that special cases of the BPD include the generalized logistic, three-parameter log-normal, and GEV distributions. To estimate the parameters in the distribution, the method of moments, L-moments, and maximum likelihood estimation methods are considered. A Monte-Carlo study is then conducted to compare these three estimation methods. Our result suggests that the L-moments estimator works better than the other estimators for this model of small or moderate samples. Two applications to the annual maximum stream flow of Colorado and the rainfall data from cloud seeding experiments in Southern Florida are reported to show the usefulness of the BPD for modeling hydrologic events. In these examples, BPD turns out to work better than $beta-{\kappa}$, Gumbel, and GEV distributions.

• ETRI Journal
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• v.28 no.3
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• pp.301-310
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• 2006

In mobile communications, a class of variable-complexity algorithms for convolutional decoding known as sequential decoding algorithms is of interest since they have a computational time that could vary with changing channel conditions. The Fano algorithm is one well-known version of a sequential decoding algorithm. Since the decoding time of a Fano decoder follows the Pareto distribution, which is a heavy-tailed distribution parameterized by the channel signal-to-noise ratio (SNR), buffers are required to absorb the variable decoding delays of Fano decoders. Furthermore, since the decoding time drawn by a certain Pareto distribution can become unbounded, a maximum limit is often employed by a practical decoder to limit the worst-case decoding time. In this paper, we investigate the relations between buffer occupancy, decoding time, and channel conditions in a system where the Fano decoder is not allowed to run with unbounded decoding time. A timeout limit is thus imposed so that the decoding will be terminated if the decoding time reaches the limit. We use discrete-time semi-Markov models to describe such a Fano decoding system with timeout limits. Our queuing analysis provides expressions characterizing the average buffer occupancy as a function of channel conditions and timeout limits. Both numerical and simulation results are provided to validate the analytical results.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.28 no.1
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• pp.59-79
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• 2021

Value at Risk (VaR) is one of the most common risk management tools in finance. Since a portfolio of several assets, rather than one asset portfolio, is advantageous in the risk diversification for investment, VaR for a portfolio of two or more assets is often used. In such cases, multivariate distributions of asset returns are considered to calculate VaR of the corresponding portfolio. Copulas are one way of generating a multivariate distribution by identifying the dependence structure of asset returns while allowing many different marginal distributions. However, they are used mainly for bivariate distributions and are not widely used in modeling joint distributions for many variables in finance. In this study, we would like to examine the performance of various copulas for high dimensional data and several different dependence structures. This paper compares copulas such as elliptical, vine, and hierarchical copulas in computing the VaR of portfolios to find appropriate copula functions in various dependence structures among asset return distributions. In the simulation studies under various dependence structures and real data analysis, the hierarchical Clayton copula shows the best performance in the VaR calculation using four assets. For marginal distributions of single asset returns, normal inverse Gaussian distribution was used to model asset return distributions, which are generally high-peaked and heavy-tailed.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.10 no.2
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• pp.607-617
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• 2003

This paper offers a practical comparison of efficiency between local likelihood approach and conventional kernel approach in density estimation. The local likelihood estimation procedure maximizes a kernel smoothed log-likelihood function with respect to a polynomial approximation of the log likelihood function. We use two types of data driven bandwidths for each method and compare the mean integrated squares for several densities. Numerical results reveal that local log-linear approach with simple plug-in bandwidth shows better performance comparing to the standard kernel approach in heavy tailed distribution. For normal mixture density cases, standard kernel estimator with the bandwidth in Sheather and Jones(1991) dominates the others in moderately large sample size.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.19 no.1
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• pp.177-182
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• 2012

A structural break in the level as well as in the innovation variance has often been exhibited in economic time series. In this paper we propose robust unit root tests based on a sign-type test statistic when a time series has a shift in its level and the corresponding volatility. The proposed tests are robust to a wide class of partially stationary processes with heavy-tailed errors, and have an exact binomial null distribution. Our tests are not affected by the size or location of the break. We set the structural break under the null and the alternative hypotheses to relieve a possible vagueness in interpreting test results in empirical work. The null hypothesis implies a unit root process with level shifts and the alternative connotes a stationary process with level shifts. The Monte Carlo simulation shows that our tests have stable size than the OLSE based tests.

• Communications of the Korean Mathematical Society
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• v.20 no.1
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• pp.145-159
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• 2005

In this paper we consider the problem of testing statistical hypotheses for unknown parameters in nonlinear regression models and propose three asymptotically equivalent tests based on regression quantiles estimators, which are Wald test, Lagrange Multiplier test and Likelihood Ratio test. We also derive the asymptotic distributions of the three test statistics both under the null hypotheses and under a sequence of local alternatives and verify that the asymptotic relative efficiency of the proposed test statistics with classical test based on least squares depends on the error distributions of the regression models. We give some examples to illustrate that the test based on the regression quantiles estimators performs better than the test based on the least squares estimators of the least absolute deviation estimators when the disturbance has asymmetric and heavy-tailed distribution.

• Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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• 2001.11c
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• pp.26-29
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• 2001

In a target tracking problem the radar glint noise has non-Gaussian heavy-tailed distribution and will seriously affect the target tracking performance. In most nonlinear situations an Extended Robust Kalman Filter(ERKF) can yield acceptable performance as long as the noises are white Gaussian. However, an Extended Robust $H_{\infty}$ Filter (ERHF) can yield acceptable performance when the noises are Laplacian. In this paper, we use the Interacting Multiple Model(IMM) estimator for the problem of target tracking with glint noise. In the IMM method, two filters(ERKF and ERHF) are used in parallel to estimate the state. Computer simulations of a real target tracking shows that hybrid filter used the IMM algorithm has superior performance than a single type filter.

• Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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• 2001.07d
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• pp.1961-1963
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• 2001

In a target tracking problem, the radar glint noise has non-Gaussian heavy-tailed distribution and will seriously affect the target tracking performance. In this study, an extended robust $H_{\infty}$ was developed which can significantly improve the tracking performance when glint noise is present. Through the computer simulations, the proposed filter showed superior and robust tracking performance compared with other extended Kalman filters.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.30 no.6
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• pp.531-550
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• 2023

The estimation of extreme quantiles is one of the main objectives of statistics of extremes (which deals with the estimation of rare events). In this paper, a robust estimator of extreme quantile of a heavy-tailed distribution is considered. The estimator is obtained through the minimum density power divergence criterion on an exponential regression model. The proposed estimator was compared with two estimators of extreme quantiles in the literature in a simulation study. The results show that the proposed estimator is stable to the choice of the number of top order statistics and show lesser bias and mean square error compared to the existing extreme quantile estimators. Practical application of the proposed estimator is illustrated with data from the pedochemical and insurance industries.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.5 no.1
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• pp.41-57
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• 1992

Distribution-free test for umbrella alternatives in a randomized block design is proposed and asymptotic properties test statistics and the asymptotic relatives efficiency (ARE) of the proposed test statistics with respect to the Puri's parametric method are investigated. For given peak points 2,3,4, with 4 blocks and 5 treatments, and with 3 blocks and 5 treatments : for given peak point 3, with 2 blocks and 4 treatments : from the small sample Monte Carlo Study, the empirical powers between the proposed test and Puri's test are compared. Throughout the simulation results, the proposed test statistic is efficient for the heavy tailed distributions.