• Title/Summary/Keyword: Experts' opinion

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A Study of the Supply of Large Korean Pine Timber (국산 육송 특대재 수급 현황 분석 및 문화재 수리의 활용에 관한 연구)

  • Jung, Younghun;Yun, Hyundo
    • Korean Journal of Heritage: History & Science
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    • v.53 no.4
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    • pp.136-149
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    • 2020
  • It is generally believed that Douglas Fir timber imported from North America is used in repair work for Korean wooden heritage sites due to an insufficient supply of extra-large sized Korean pine timber. Based on this understanding in the cultural heritage repair field, Cultural Heritage Repair Business Entities ("CHRBE") prefer North American Douglas Fir timber which is more easily acquired on the market than large Korean pine timber. However, if CHRBE use large quantities of foreign-origin wood in the heritage repair field, this presents the threat of negative domestic impacts on cultural heritage such as breaching the preservation principal and ultimately weakening material authenticity. Therefore, this study aims to investigate the current supply status of large Korean pine timber through examination of existing research, interviews with experts engaged in CHRBE, and timber mills. With this information, the authors seek to identify whether the market supply of large Korean pine timber is indeed insufficient or not. In addition to this, this paper identifies the reasons why large Korean pine timber is not widely used if such timber supply is actually sufficient. In order to propose suggestions regarding the issues above, the authors study the distribution channel for large Korean pine timber and the price spectrum of this timber through examination of price information from the public agencies under the Korea Forest Service, research papers from the Cultural Heritage Administration, and estimation documents from timber mills. This paper also identifies two main opinions about why Korean timber has not been commonly used in the Korean heritage repair field. The first opinion is that the supply of large Korean pine timber really is insufficient in Korea. However, the second opinion is that it is hardly used due to inappropriateness of the government's procurement and estimation system, despite the fact that the supply of the timbers on the market is actually sufficient. Through the aforementioned research, this paper comes to the conclusion that the second opinion has strong grounds in many aspects. In terms of suggestions, alternative routes are proposed to stimulate the use of large Korean pine timber via supply by the 'Korea Foundation for Traditional Architecture and Technology' and surveys of the price spectrum of the timber, etc.

Validation of NCS based Vocational Curriculum Procedures Developing Models Recognized by National Competency Standards Experts (국가직무능력표준 개발 전문가들이 인식하는 NCS 기반 직업교육과정 개발 절차 모형의 타당화)

  • Kim, Dong-Yeon;Kim, Jinsoo
    • 대한공업교육학회지
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    • v.40 no.1
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    • pp.64-86
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    • 2015
  • The objective of this study is to develop NCS-based vocational curriculum procedures developing models recognized by experts in the National Skill Standards and to verify them. As for a research method for efficiently achieving this study, Delphi research has been conducted three times based on the result of preliminary Delphi investigation, contents of in-depth interview (review and advice), and consideration of previous studies and literature research related to NCS in Korea and abroad. Major results of study in regard of validation of NCS-based vocational curriculum procedures developing models recognized by experts of National Skill Standards are as follows. First, validity of conceptual model(plan) of NCS-based vocational curriculum developing procedures was verified. According to the result of implementing it on 10 members of verification for Delphi preliminary investigation tools, the average was higher than 4.70, and validity of contents was turned out to be outstanding in 1.00. Secondly, validity of conceptual model(plan) of NCS-based vocational curriculum developing procedures was verified by using Delphi preliminary investigation tools. According to the result of verifying it in order on 10 members of verification for Delphi preliminary investigation tools, validity of contents on questions in each area from the development procedures model(plan) was all 1.00, and appropriateness of contents on the components was turned out to be outstanding in 1.00. In addition, validity of contents on interrelation and comprehensiveness of components in the development procedures model(plan) was all turned out to be very satisfying in 1.00. Third, Delphi investigation was implemented in three rounds on 26 Delphi panel members for the verification. As a result consistency rate of interrelation and comprehensiveness among questions in each area of development procedures model(plan), components on the contents, and elements was turned out to be outstanding in .75 from all of three rounds. Here, consistency rate from all three rounds was turned out to be 1.00, and convergence rate was shown to be .00 that very well satisfied the conditions(except for 1 question out of 29). Therefore, it was confirmed that opinion from Delphi panel members was completely consistent in the third round of Delphi investigation research. Such a result in the study was from how Delphi selection criteria were strictly reinforced, and, at the same time, implies how will of participation of Delphi panel members was important.

A Study on the Consciousness Survey for the Establishment of Safety Village in Disaster (재난안전마을 구축을 위한 의식조사 연구)

  • Koo, Wonhoi;Baek, Minho
    • Journal of the Society of Disaster Information
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    • v.14 no.3
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    • pp.238-246
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    • 2018
  • Purpose: The purpose of this study is to examine the directions for establishing a disaster safety village in rural areas where damage from a similar type of disaster occurs repeatedly by conducting the consciousness survey targeting at experts and disaster safety officials in a local government. Method: The risks of disaster in rural areas were examined and the concept and characteristics of disaster safety village which is a measure on the basis of Myeon (township) among the measures of village unit were examined in order to carry out this study. In addition, opinion polling targeting at officials-in-charge in the local government and survey targeting at experts in disaster safety and building village were conducted. Based on the findings, the directions for establishing a disaster safety village that fitted the characteristics of rural areas were examined. Result: The officials-in-charge in the local government answered that rural areas have a high risk of storm and flood such as heavy snowing, typhoon, drought, and heavy rain as well as forest fire, and it is difficult to draw voluntary participation of farmers for disaster management activities due to their main duties. They also replied that active support and participation of residents in rural areas are necessary for future improvement measures. The experts mostly replied that the problem of disaster safety village project is a temporary project which has low sustainability, and the lack of connections between the central government, local governments and residents was stressed out as the difficulties. They said that measures to secure the budget and the directions of project promotion system should be promoted by the central government, local governments and residents together. Conclusion: The results of this study are as follows. First, a disaster safety village should be established in consideration of the disaster types and characteristics. Second, measures to secure the budget for utilizing the central government fund as well as local government fund and village development fund should be prepared when establishing and operating a disaster safety village in rural areas. Third, measures to utilize a disaster safety village in rural areas for a long period of time such as the re-authorization system should be prepared in order to continuously operate and manage such villages after its establishment. Fourth, detailed measures that allow residents of rural areas to positively participate in the activities for establishing a disaster safety village in rural areas should be prepared.

An Intelligent Decision Support System for Selecting Promising Technologies for R&D based on Time-series Patent Analysis (R&D 기술 선정을 위한 시계열 특허 분석 기반 지능형 의사결정지원시스템)

  • Lee, Choongseok;Lee, Suk Joo;Choi, Byounggu
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.18 no.3
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    • pp.79-96
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    • 2012
  • As the pace of competition dramatically accelerates and the complexity of change grows, a variety of research have been conducted to improve firms' short-term performance and to enhance firms' long-term survival. In particular, researchers and practitioners have paid their attention to identify promising technologies that lead competitive advantage to a firm. Discovery of promising technology depends on how a firm evaluates the value of technologies, thus many evaluating methods have been proposed. Experts' opinion based approaches have been widely accepted to predict the value of technologies. Whereas this approach provides in-depth analysis and ensures validity of analysis results, it is usually cost-and time-ineffective and is limited to qualitative evaluation. Considerable studies attempt to forecast the value of technology by using patent information to overcome the limitation of experts' opinion based approach. Patent based technology evaluation has served as a valuable assessment approach of the technological forecasting because it contains a full and practical description of technology with uniform structure. Furthermore, it provides information that is not divulged in any other sources. Although patent information based approach has contributed to our understanding of prediction of promising technologies, it has some limitations because prediction has been made based on the past patent information, and the interpretations of patent analyses are not consistent. In order to fill this gap, this study proposes a technology forecasting methodology by integrating patent information approach and artificial intelligence method. The methodology consists of three modules : evaluation of technologies promising, implementation of technologies value prediction model, and recommendation of promising technologies. In the first module, technologies promising is evaluated from three different and complementary dimensions; impact, fusion, and diffusion perspectives. The impact of technologies refers to their influence on future technologies development and improvement, and is also clearly associated with their monetary value. The fusion of technologies denotes the extent to which a technology fuses different technologies, and represents the breadth of search underlying the technology. The fusion of technologies can be calculated based on technology or patent, thus this study measures two types of fusion index; fusion index per technology and fusion index per patent. Finally, the diffusion of technologies denotes their degree of applicability across scientific and technological fields. In the same vein, diffusion index per technology and diffusion index per patent are considered respectively. In the second module, technologies value prediction model is implemented using artificial intelligence method. This studies use the values of five indexes (i.e., impact index, fusion index per technology, fusion index per patent, diffusion index per technology and diffusion index per patent) at different time (e.g., t-n, t-n-1, t-n-2, ${\cdots}$) as input variables. The out variables are values of five indexes at time t, which is used for learning. The learning method adopted in this study is backpropagation algorithm. In the third module, this study recommends final promising technologies based on analytic hierarchy process. AHP provides relative importance of each index, leading to final promising index for technology. Applicability of the proposed methodology is tested by using U.S. patents in international patent class G06F (i.e., electronic digital data processing) from 2000 to 2008. The results show that mean absolute error value for prediction produced by the proposed methodology is lower than the value produced by multiple regression analysis in cases of fusion indexes. However, mean absolute error value of the proposed methodology is slightly higher than the value of multiple regression analysis. These unexpected results may be explained, in part, by small number of patents. Since this study only uses patent data in class G06F, number of sample patent data is relatively small, leading to incomplete learning to satisfy complex artificial intelligence structure. In addition, fusion index per technology and impact index are found to be important criteria to predict promising technology. This study attempts to extend the existing knowledge by proposing a new methodology for prediction technology value by integrating patent information analysis and artificial intelligence network. It helps managers who want to technology develop planning and policy maker who want to implement technology policy by providing quantitative prediction methodology. In addition, this study could help other researchers by proving a deeper understanding of the complex technological forecasting field.

The Study on the Expertise about Field-University-Government Cooperation Oriented Supervision Program for Child-care Center (델파이 방법을 활용한 산·학·관 협력 어린이집 장학프로그램에 대한 전문가 인식 조사)

  • Nam, Mi Kyoung
    • Korean Journal of Childcare and Education
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    • v.7 no.4
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    • pp.159-182
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    • 2011
  • The purpose of this study is to investigate the expertise about the field-university-government cooperation oriented supervision program for child-care center. The research contents for the purpose of this study were to investigate a distributions of the panel's responses on a draft and the adequacy of the items and the convergence of the panel members' responses. This study was conducted in three steps of the Delpi method with a panel consisting of 20 experts. On the first step, we collected opinion of the panel through open-ended questions on a field-university-government cooperation oriented supervision program for child-care center. On the second and third steps, we analyzed the distributions of the panel's responses to the questionnaire with a 4-point rating scales. Finally, we developed 77 items for 2 categories for the field-university-government cooperation oriented supervision program. The results of the analysis for the adequacy showed that most of the items were valid and reliable, and the responses of the panel groups are a high convergence level, except some items.

Study on introduction of 'Pre-Agreement system for Additional Incidental Cost' related to construction time extension (공사기간 연장에 따른 추가간접비 사전합의 제도 도입 방안 연구)

  • Jeong, Ki-Chang;Lee, Jae-Seob;Park, Yang-Ho
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.13 no.6
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    • pp.33-44
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    • 2012
  • This study is as to payment improvement method of additional incidental cost to be occurred upon extension of public construction time. According to the result of analysis about the cause of non-payment of additional incidental cost of construction time extension through site examples, it was found that difficulties exist in disputes & proofing over the scope of actual cost recognition, and in this regard the result of experts opinion indicated that a construction extension pre-agreement system can be executed which agrees the scope of recognition of additional incidental cost of construction time extension once the statistical standard is clear and accurate. Accordingly, in this study, by totalling multiple sites data, calculations were implemented in terms of type of construction projects, amount of constructions, period of constructions. According to the result of calculation, the element of type of construction project and construction period appears to have none direct effect to the occurrence of additional cost of construction time extension, but direct relationship was indicated related to the contract amount element. In view of above, in this study a standard additional incidental cost of construction time extension was proposed, and presented a system improvement plan to implement the construction extension pre-agreement system.

Applying the Analytic Hierarchy Process to Select the Optimal Route for Hazardous Material Transport (AHP 기법을 활용한 위험물 수송의 최적경로산정)

  • Son, Eu-Gene;Bae, Sang-Hoon
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.13 no.4
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    • pp.67-77
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    • 2010
  • Growth of oil and chemical industries has been remarkable during recent years. Hazardous materials (Hazmat) make frequent use in the wide range of industries. It increases the frequency of Hazmat transport and it leads to increase the number of accidents. Optimal Hazmat routes can reduce damage. Thus, the objective of this study is to minimize the areas impacted by Hazmat accidents by adopting experts' opinion in planning the route. We calculated weights using AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) and deduced the best route by applying this weights. Results showed that in the case of shortest route versus weighted route, the percentage of population damage has been decreased by 33.4% in the comparison between shortest route and optimally weighted route. And the percentage of environmental damage also has been decreased by 21.8%. Social damage has been decreased by 1521.7%. In the case of none weighted route versus weighted route, the percentage of population damage has been decreased by 2.6% when we adopted weighted route. Consequently, the recommended route with weighted risk assessment avoids densely populated area comparing with none weighted route. Further research needs to be carried out in order to figure out the specific cost-effectiveness analysis applying the equal cost unit for each factor.

PRELIMINARY STUDY FOR ADHD TREATMENT GUIDELINE (ADHD 최적치료 지침을 위한 예비연구)

  • Kim, Eun-Young;Ra, Chul;Lee, Young-Sik
    • Journal of the Korean Academy of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.129-138
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    • 2002
  • Objectives:In order to treatment guideline of ADHD, present clinical practise of child psychiatrists and their opinion of optimal intervention were evaluated. Methods:Structured questionnaire items about diagnostic workup, drug choice of 5 different situations according to different co-morbid disorders, and non - pharmacological treatment were applied to 32 child psychiatrists working at university and general hospital. we compared the data with Texas Algorithm Project guideline. Results:(1) Intelligence Test, Sentence Completion Test, sustained attention test, and Conner's questionnaire were the basic routine test that must be performed. (2) Main trend of medication in this study was not different from TAP guideline. (3) In case of co-morbid tic disorder, first recommending drug is still psychostimulant in the TAP guideline. But in this study initial psychostimulant prescription was not main trend. (4) In case of MPH non-response co-morbid disruptive behavior disorder, MPH medication combined with other drug were more common than switching to other drug as suggested the TAP guidelines. (5) In non-pharmacological treatment, most child psychiatrists reported the importance of parent management. Conclusion:There were some difference in medication trend in this study compared with TAP guideline. Further study and conference are needed for experts consensus in Korea.

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An Analysis on the Problems of Design Competition Process of Landscape Architecture by the Delphi Analysis Method (델파이 분석을 통한 조경설계공모 과정의 문제점 분석)

  • Lee, Joo-Hee;Cho, Se-Hwan
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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    • v.41 no.3
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    • pp.83-93
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    • 2013
  • This study has been performed to analyze and consider the problems after 30 years in terms of landscape design competition process in Korea, so that it can provide the basic data, which can improve the future landscape design competition. We have used Delphi Investigation to carry out a survey that targets professionals and identifies problems. The results are summarized as follows. Firstly, the results of the analysis of Landscape Design Competition for institution theory and case studies showed that there is an issue from four perspectives which are 'method of design competition', 'guidelines for design competition', 'winner selection process', and 'design changes after winning' Secondly, the process by professional Delphi performed expert analysis, and agree with expert opinion. As a result, we derived the problems of a landscape design competition system with the 12 items. Third, in the 'design competition style', two items, the 'design competition style' and 'problem of design public offering period' had become a problem. Fourth, the 'Guidelines for design competition', 'non-hierarchical excess of the amount of instructions', 'directive determined the guidelines', and the 'provision of confusion' three items had also become a problem. Fifth, 'sex expert committee review selection process winning work', 'Problems of participation', 'examination scoring system experts lack', and 'non-landscaping' had become a problem. Sixth, 'The design of the original order' as much as possible 'design changes after the winning work' Four 'order to Comments to reduce the creativity of the design of the climate', 'original extension', 'contractor feedback of excess without the promise of frequent personnel changes', design period of the person in charge is reflected in excess item has become a problem. I considered that a continuous research on the improvement of the problems of the landscape design competition system based on the results must be performed.

Weighting Value Evaluation of Condition Assessment Item in Reinforced Earth Retaining Walls by Applying Hybrid Weighting Technique (혼합 가중치를 적용한 보강토 옹벽의 상태평가항목 가중치 평가)

  • Lee, Hyung Do;Won, Jeong-Hun;Seong, Joohyun
    • Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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    • v.21 no.5
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    • pp.83-93
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    • 2017
  • This study proposed the new weighting values and fault points of condition assessment items for reinforced earth retaining walls based on the combination the inspection data and hybrid weighting technique. Utilizing the inspection data of 161 reinforced earth retaining walls, multi regression analysis and entropy technique were applied to gain the weighting values of condition assessment items. In addition, the weighting values by AHP technique was analyzed based on the opinion of experts. By appling hybrid weighting technique to the calculated weighting values obtained by the individual technique, the new weighting values of condition assessment items were proposed, and the fault points and fault indices of reinforced earth retaining walls were proposed. Results showed that the rank of the weighting value of the condition evaluation items was fluctuated according to the multiple regression analysis, AHP technique, and entropy technique. There was no duplication of the rank of the weighting value while the current weighting value was overlapped. Specially, in the rsults of multi regression analysis, two condition assessment items were occupied 70% of the total weights. When the proposed weighting values were applied to existing reinforced earth retaining wall of 161, 16 reinforced earth retaining walls showed the increased risk rank and 31 represented the decreased risk rank.