• Title/Summary/Keyword: Best-estimate Analysis

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A Study on the Best Estimate of Seismicity Parameter b-Value and Its Application for the Seismic Hazard Analysis of the Korean Peninsula (한반도의 최적 지진원 변수 b값 및 그의 적용에 관한 연구)

  • Seo, Jeong-Moon;Rhee, Hyun-Me;Choi, In-Kil
    • Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.35-42
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    • 2010
  • The best estimate Gutenberg-Richter b-value of the Korean Peninsula was estimated through an expert panel assigned to evaluate the currently available study results. The panel's assessment yielded that the Gutenberg-Richter b-value was relatively constant over the Korean Peninsula and was independent of seismic zones with an average value of 0.96. Also, the currently most reliable four seismotechtonic structural maps were produced. The effects on the seismic hazard were analyzed by applying the results to the Shinwuljin Units 1&2 NPP site. As a result, the mean hazard level at 0.2g was decreased by about 70-80% (on the order of 0.6-0.7), and the uncertainty band at 0.2g for the reliability band of 15%-85% was significantly reduced. It was proposed, for conservatism, to use b=0.95 over all seismic zones for seismic hazard analysis in the future.

Integrated approach using well data and seismic attributes for reservoir characterization

  • Kim Ji- Yeong;Lim Jong-Se;Shin Sung-Ryul
    • 한국지구물리탐사학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2003.11a
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    • pp.723-730
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    • 2003
  • In general, well log and core data have been utilized for reservoir characterization. These well data can provide valuable information on reservoir properties with high vertical resolution at well locations. While the seismic surveys cover large areas of field but give only indirect features about reservoir properties. Therefore it is possible to estimate the reservoir properties guided by seismic data on entire area if a relationship of seismic data and well data can be defined. Seismic attributes calculated from seismic surveys contain the particular reservoir features, so that they should be extracted and used properly according to the purpose of study. The method to select the suitable seismic attributes among enormous ones is needed. The stepwise regression and fuzzy curve analysis based on fuzzy logics are used for selecting the best attributes. The relationship can be utilized to estimate reservoir properties derived from seismic attributes. This methodology is applied to a synthetic seismogram and a sonic log acquired from velocity model. Seismic attributes calculated from the seismic data are reflection strength, instantaneous phase, instantaneous frequency and pseudo sonic logging data as well as seismic trace. The fuzzy curve analysis is used for choosing the best seismic attributes compared to sonic log as well data, so that seismic trace, reflection strength, instantaneous frequency, and pseudo sonic logging data are selected. The relationship between the seismic attribute and well data is found out by the statistical regression method and estimates the reliable well data at a specific field location derived from only seismic attributes. For a future work in this study, the methodology should be checked an applicability of the real fields with more complex and various reservoir features.

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An Evaluation of Operator's Action Time for Core Cooling Recovery Operation in Nuclear Power Plant (원자력발전소의 노심냉각회복 조치에 대한 운전원 조치시간 평가)

  • Bae, Yeon-Kyoung
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.27 no.5
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    • pp.229-234
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    • 2012
  • Operator's action time is evaluated from MAAP4 analysis used in conventional probabilistic safety assessment(PSA) of a nuclear power plant. MAAP4 code which was developed for severe accident analysis is too conservative to perform a realistic PSA. A best-estimate code such as RELAP5/MOD3, MARS has been used to reduce the conservatism of thermal hydraulic analysis. In this study, operator's action time of core cooling recovery operation is evaluated by using the MARS code, which its Fussell-Vessely(F-V) value was evaluated as highly important in a small break loss of coolant(SBLOCA) event and loss of component cooling water(LOCCW) event in previous PSA. The main conclusions were elicited : (1) MARS analysis provides larger time window for operator's action time than MAAP4 analysis and gives the more realistic time window in PSA (2) Sufficient operator's action time can reduce human error probability and core damage frequency in PSA.

Design and Performance Analysis of a Parallel Optimal Branch-and-Bound Algorithm for MIN-based Multiprocessors (MIN-based 다중 처리 시스템을 위한 효율적인 병렬 Branch-and-Bound 알고리즘 설계 및 성능 분석)

  • Yang, Myung-Kook
    • Journal of IKEEE
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    • v.1 no.1 s.1
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    • pp.31-46
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    • 1997
  • In this paper, a parallel Optimal Best-First search Branch-and-Bound(B&B) algorithm(pobs) is designed and evaluated for MIN-based multiprocessor systems. The proposed algorithm decomposes a problem into G subproblems, where each subproblem is processed on a group of P processors. Each processor group uses tile sub-Global Best-First search technique to find a local solution. The local solutions are broadcasted through the network to compute the global solution. This broadcast provides not only the comparison of G local solutions but also the load balancing among the processor groups. A performance analysis is then conducted to estimate the speed-up of the proposed parallel B&B algorithm. The analytical model is developed based on the probabilistic properties of the B&B algorithm. It considers both the computation time and communication overheads to evaluate the realistic performance of the algorithm under the parallel processing environment. In order to validate the proposed evaluation model, the simulation of the parallel B&B algorithm on a MIN-based system is carried out at the same time. The results from both analysis and simulation match closely. It is also shown that the proposed Optimal Best-First search B&B algorithm performs better than other reported schemes with its various advantageous features such as: less subproblem evaluations, prefer load balancing, and limited scope of remote communication.

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A new empirical formula for prediction of the axial compression capacity of CCFT columns

  • Tran, Viet-Linh;Thai, Duc-Kien;Kim, Seung-Eock
    • Steel and Composite Structures
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    • v.33 no.2
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    • pp.181-194
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    • 2019
  • This paper presents an efficient approach to generate a new empirical formula to predict the axial compression capacity (ACC) of circular concrete-filled tube (CCFT) columns using the artificial neural network (ANN). A total of 258 test results extracted from the literature were used to develop the ANN models. The ANN model having the highest correlation coefficient (R) and the lowest mean square error (MSE) was determined as the best model. Stability analysis, sensitivity analysis, and a parametric study were carried out to estimate the stability of the ANN model and to investigate the main contributing factors on the ACC of CCFT columns. Stability analysis revealed that the ANN model was more stable than several existing formulae. Whereas, the sensitivity analysis and parametric study showed that the outer diameter of the steel tube was the most sensitive parameter. Additionally, using the validated ANN model, a new empirical formula was derived for predicting the ACC of CCFT columns. Obviously, a higher accuracy of the proposed empirical formula was achieved compared to the existing formulae.

Probability of performance failure of storm sewer according to accumulation of debris (토사 적체에 따른 우수관의 성능불능확률)

  • Kwon, Hyuk-Jae
    • Journal of Korean Society of Water and Wastewater
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    • v.24 no.5
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    • pp.509-517
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    • 2010
  • Statistical distribution of annual maximum rainfall intensity of 18 cities in Korea was analyzed and applied to the reliability model which can calculate the probability of performance failure of storm sewer. After the analysis, it was found that distribution of annual maximum rainfall intensity of 18 cities in Korea is well matched with Gumbel distribution. Rational equation was used to estimate the load and Manning's equation was used to estimate the capacity in reliability function to calculate the probability of performance failure of storm sewer. Reliability analysis was performed by developed model applying to the real storm sewer. It was found that probability of performance failure is abruptly increased if the diameter is smaller than certain size. Therefore, cleaning the inside of storm sewer to maintain the original diameter can be one of the best ways to reduce the probability of performance failure. In the present study, probability of performance failure according to accumulation of debris in storm sewer was calculated. It was found that increasing the amount of debris seriously decrease the capacity of storm sewer and significantly increase the probability of performance failure.

3D-QSAR Studies of Tetraoxanes Derivatives as Antimalarial Agents Using CoMFA and CoMSIA Approaches

  • Liang, Taigang;Ren, Luhui;Li, Qingshan
    • Bulletin of the Korean Chemical Society
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    • v.34 no.6
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    • pp.1823-1828
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    • 2013
  • Tetraoxanes (1,2,4,5-tetraoxanes) have been reported to exhibit potent antimalarial activity. In the present study, the three dimensional-quantitative structure activity relationship (3D-QSAR) studies were performed on a series of tetraoxanes derivatives using comparative molecular field analysis (CoMFA) and comparative molecular similarity indices analysis (CoMSIA) techniques. The best predictive CoMFA model with atom fit alignment resulted in cross-validated coefficient ($q^2$) value of 0.719, non-cross-validated coefficient ($r^2$) value of 0.855 with standard error of estimate (SEE) 0.335. Similarly, the best predictive CoMSIA model was derived with $q^2$ of 0.739, $r^2$ of 0.847 and SEE of 0.344. The generated models were externally validated using test sets. The final QSAR models as well as the information gathered from 3D contour maps should be useful for the design of novel tetraoxanes having improved antimalarial activity.

Design Parametric Analysis of Radial Beam Coupling using Finite Element Analysis (유한요소 해석을 통한 레이디얼 빔 커플링의 설계인자 분석)

  • Lee, Chibum;Park, Yeong Il
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Precision Engineering
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    • v.30 no.5
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    • pp.537-543
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    • 2013
  • In this paper, a novel radial beam coupling model was proposed and the design parameters were studied for the efficient transmission of torque. To develop a high performance radial beam coupling, an analytical way to predict the performance in design phase is required. One of the best ways to estimate the performance of the coupling without manufacturing is to evaluate the stress and torsional stiffness by building a finite element model with a special attention to the radial beam cutting part. For the best results of FEA, the material properties were obtained through testing. To verify the reliability of finite element model, the results of FEA were compared with the experiments. The main design parameters of radial beam cutting width, radial beam cutting depth, and radial beam cutting direction were considered for the performance of radial beam coupling.

Remark on the Problems of Survey Methods Applied to Customer Satisfaction for Discount Stores (대형 할인매장 고객만족 설문조사 방법에 대한 제고)

  • 손소영;장종상
    • Journal of Korean Society for Quality Management
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    • v.26 no.2
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    • pp.93-105
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    • 1998
  • Many large scale discount stores try to enter the market in newly developed city areas. In order to sucessfully increase the market share, it is essential for them to understand customers' needs. In doing so, various forms of survey methods are often used and survey forms can influence respondents' decision. The main objective of this paper is to check consistency of different survey methods in terms of deriving the expected market share. In this paper, we a, pp.y two survey forms for both AHP and conjoint analyses using a randomized complete block design. Using AHP, we compare Kim's club, Carf, E-mart and Macro in terms of the following four customer attributes: parking facility, size of store, business hours, and special pricing policy. In conjoint analysis, we estimate the part-worth of each level of the customer's attribute so that one can design the best store which would optimizethe customer's attribute so that one can design the best store which would optimize the customer's utility. Empirical comparison results indicate very low consistency between the two methods. It implies the importance of verification methods of survey. We also analyze the impact of special pricing policy using a meta analysis. It turns out that older customers are a, pp.rently more sensitive to pricing policy.

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Interventions for anesthetic success in symptomatic irreversible pulpitis: A network meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials

  • Sivaramakrishnan, Gowri;Alsobaiei, Muneera;Sridharan, Kannan
    • Journal of Dental Anesthesia and Pain Medicine
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    • v.19 no.6
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    • pp.323-341
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    • 2019
  • Background: Local anesthetics alone or in combination with adjuncts, such as oral medications, have routinely been used for pain control during endodontic treatment. The best clinical choice amongst the vast numbers of agents and techniques available for pain control for irreversible pulpitis is unclear. This network meta-analysis combined the available evidence on agents and techniques for pulpal anesthesia in the maxilla and mandible, in order to identify the best amongst these approaches statistically, as a basis for future clinical trials. Methods: Randomized trials in MEDLINE, DARE, and COCHRANE databases were screened based on inclusion criteria and data were extracted. Heterogeneity was assessed and odds ratios were used to estimate effects. Inconsistencies between direct and indirect pooled estimates were evaluated by H-statistics. The Grading of Recommendation, Assessment, Development, and Evaluation working group approach was used to assess evidence quality. Results: Sixty-two studies (nine studies in the maxilla and 53 studies in the mandible) were included in the meta-analysis. Increased mandibular pulpal anesthesia success was observed on premedication with aceclofenac + paracetamol or supplemental 4% articaine buccal infiltration or ibuprofen+paracetamol premedication, all the above mentioned with 2% lignocaine inferior alveolar nerve block (IANB). No significant difference was noted for any of the agents investigated in terms of the success rate of maxillary pulpal anesthesia. Conclusion: Direct and indirect comparisons indicated that some combinations of IANB with premedication and/or supplemental infiltration had a greater chance of producing successful mandibular pulpal anesthesia. No ideal technique for maxillary anesthesia emerged. Randomized clinical trials with increased sample size may be needed to provide more conclusive data. Our findings suggest that further high-quality studies are required in order to provide definitive direction to clinicians regarding the best agents and techniques to use for mandibular and maxillary anesthesia for irreversible pulpitis.