• Title/Summary/Keyword: 초기단계의사결정

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Development of Cost Estimating Model Using Quantity Variation Analysis by Influence Variables for the Schematic Design Phase (영향변수에 따른 수량변화 분석을 이용한 기본설계단계의 개산견적 모델 개발)

  • Son, Bo-Sik;Lee, Hyun-Soo;Kim, Sung-Tae
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.8 no.4
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    • pp.155-166
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    • 2007
  • The purpose of this research is to develop a conceptual model and prototype that establishes a new approach for building cost estimating in the schematic design phage. This research use the method that analyzes quantity and unit price separately to enhance schematic cost estimating through conducting literature review andi analyzing existing schematic cost estimating methods. In addition, this study proposes tile concept of cost breakdown structure including two more classifications: building element and floor compared to existing one only classified by trade. Thus, a Quantity Based Active Schematic cost Estimating(Q-BASE) model is developed founded on those two concepts. By applying proposed schematic cost estimating model, historical structure cost of residential complex building project is analyzed, and then, based on this analysis, prototype is implemented.

Development of a Feasibility Evaluation Model for Apartment Remodeling with the Number of Households Increasing at the Preliminary Stage (노후공동주택 세대수증가형 리모델링 사업의 기획단계 사업성평가 모델 개발)

  • Koh, Won-kyung;Yoon, Jong-sik;Yu, Il-han;Shin, Dong-woo;Jung, Dae-woon
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.20 no.4
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    • pp.22-33
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    • 2019
  • The government has steadily revised and developed laws and systems for activating remodeling of apartments in response to the problems of aged apartments. However, despite such efforts, remodeling has yet to be activated. For many reasons, this study noted that there were no tools for reasonable profitability judgements and decision making in the preliminary stages of the remodeling project. Thus, the feasibility evaluation model was developed. Generally, the profitability judgements are made after the conceptual design. However, decisions to drive remodeling projects are made at the preliminary stage. So a feasibility evaluation model is required at the preliminary stage. Accordingly, In this study, a feasibility evaluation model was developed for determining preliminary stage profitability. Construction costs, business expenses, financial expenses, and generally sales revenue were calculated using the initial available information and remodeling variables derived through the existing cases. Through this process, we developed an algorithm that can give an overview of the return on investment. In addition, the preliminary stage feasibility evaluation model developed was applied to three cases to verify the applicability of the model. Although applied in three cases, the difference between the model's forecast and actual case values is less than 5%, which is considered highly applicable. If cases are expanded in the future, it will be a useful tool that can be used in actual work. The feasibility evaluation model developed in this study will support decision making by union members, and if the model is applied in different regions, it will be expected to help local governments to understand the size of possible remodeling projects.

Exploring the Management Component of Rural Small Business in the 6th Industry at Each Stage of Growth (6차산업 경영체 성장단계별 핵심경영요소 탐색)

  • Kim, Jung-Tae
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.12 no.6
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    • pp.123-138
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    • 2017
  • This study aims to identify the characteristic variables of businesses that would impact the choice of their type in the 6th industry and analyze how they work. To this end, this study analyzed data of 752 businesses certified as belonging to the 6th industry in 2015 through the classification and regression tree (CART) algorithm in decision tree analysis. The results of analysis showed that the type of agricultural product processing affected shaping the type of the 6th industry at the early stage of growth while the type of agricultural product processing, the type of service, region and sales volumes at the stage of growth and service strategy and the type of agricultural product processing at the stage of maturity. These findings empirically identified key business factors that could support businesses in the 6th industry at each stage of growth and presented a direction forward for support of the 6th industry.

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Development of an Open Source-based Spatial Analysis Tool for Storm and Flood Damage (풍수해 대비 오픈소스 기반 공간분석 도구 개발)

  • Kim, Minjun;Lee, Changgyu;Hwang, Suyeon;Ham, Jungsoo;Choi, Jinmu
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.37 no.5_3
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    • pp.1435-1446
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    • 2021
  • Wind and flood damage caused by typhoons causes a lot of damage to the Korean Peninsula every year. In order to minimize damage, a preliminary analysis of damage estimation and evacuation routes is required for rapid decision-making. This study attempted to develop an analysis module that can provide necessary information according to the disaster stage. For use in the preparation stage, A function to check past typhoon routes and past damage information similar to typhoon routes heading north, a function to extract isolated dangerous areas, and a function to extract reservoir collapse areas were developed. For use in the early stages of response and recovery, a function to extract the expected flooding range considering the current flooding depth, a function to analyze expected damage information on population, buildings, farmland, and a function to provide evacuation information were included. In addition, an automated web map creation method was proposed to express the analysis results. The analysis function was developed and modularized based on Python open source, and the web display function was implemented based on JavaScript. The tools developed in this study are expected to be efficiently used for rapid decision-making in the early stages of monitoring against storm and flood damage.

Improving and Validating a Greenhouse Tomato Model "GreenTom" for Simulating Artificial Defoliation (적엽작업을 반영하기 위한 시설토마토 생육모형(GreenTom) 개선 및 검증)

  • Kim, Yean-Uk;Kim, Jin Hyun;Lee, Byun-Woo
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.373-379
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    • 2019
  • Smart-farm has been spreading across Korea to improve the labor efficiency and productivity of greenhouse crops. Although notable improvements have been made in the monitoring technologies and environmental-controlling systems in greenhouses, only a few simple decision-support systems are available for predicting the optimum environmental conditions for crop growth. In this study, a tomato growth model (GreenTom), which was developed by Seoul National University in 1997, was calibrated and validated to examine if the model can be used as a decision-supporting system. The original GreenTom model was not able to simulate artificial defoliation, which resulted in overestimation of the leaf area index in the late growth. Thus, an algorithm for simulating the artificial defoliation was developed and added to the original model. The node development, leaf growth, stem growth, fruit growth, and leaf area index were generally well simulated by the modified model indicating that the model could be used effectively in the decision-making of smart greenhouse.

A Study on Analysis Model for Weapon Acquisition Alternatives (국방 무기체계 획득방안 연구 방법론 제안)

  • Lee, Ji-Young
    • Journal of Convergence for Information Technology
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    • v.9 no.6
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    • pp.91-96
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    • 2019
  • Recently, it is expected for requirement for more scientific research of weapon systems acquisition alternatives with reliability and objectivity. For these needs, study on methodology of weapon systems acquisition alternatives is but on-going, but it is still in its early stages and is unprofessional. We compared general decision making methods, government development program decision making methods, methodologies of weapon systems acquisition alternatives research such as AHP, ANP, KAAM and proposed AHP as weapon acquisition analysis. This study guarantees objectivity and derives scientific research results reliability by analyzing and comparing comprehensive elements such as cost, effectiveness, deployment schedule, program management risk. Further study on AHP weight and other decision making methods is needed considering category of weapon systems and program characteristics.

투자자는 언제 투자를 거절당하는가

  • Kim, Ha-Yeong;Kim, Yong-Yeon;Jo, Jong-Hyeok;Bae, Tae-Jun
    • 한국벤처창업학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2020.06a
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    • pp.25-29
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    • 2020
  • 최근까지의 국내외 투자 의사결정 요인을 살펴보면 주로 벤처캐피탈리스트 투자 성공 요인이 연구되어 왔다. 하지만, 2018년 이후 폭발적으로 증가한 투자 자금과, 우수한 스타트업의 성장으로 인해, 기업가들의 투자 거절 사례가 빈번하게 발생하고 있다. 따라서 투자자는 우수한 스타트업에 투자하기 위해 어떤 조건에서 투자를 거절당하는지 인지해야 할 필요가 있다. 본 연구는 주로 초기 창업자들에게 투자하는 국내외 벤처캐피탈리스트 7명을 인터뷰 하여 거절된 투자의 요인을 살펴보고, 우수한 스타트업 투자 유치를 위한 방향을 제시하려고 한다. 연구 결과 최근 3년 이내 투자자들은 잦은 투자 거절 경험을 하였으며, 기업가의 투자사 거절 요인은 1) 투자자의 낮은 산업 전문성, 2) 투자자의 낮은 장기 지향성이다. 먼저, 기업가는 많은 투자 기회를 인식하며, 과거와 달리 비재무적 조건에 비중을 두는 것으로 나타났다. 그 중 투자 기업의 전문성은 특히 기술 스타트업에서 많이 발견되며, 투자자가 피투자기업이 속한 산업의 기술적 이해가 낮을수록 투자가 거절될 수 있으며, 투자 목적의 경우, 투자사가 제시하는 투자의 목적이 장기 지향성이 낮을수록 투자가 거절될 수 있다. 이는 스타트업의 대표와 투자사의 상호성에도 부정적인 영향을 주기 때문이다. 따라서 초기 기술 기업에 투자하는 투자사일수록 투자사가 보유하고 있는 산업전문성과 일치하는 스타트업에 투자를 제안해야 하며, 초기 기술 기업의 기업가는 높은 기업 애착도가 있음으로, 스타트업과 컨텍하는 단계에서부터 투자사의 투자 성향에 대해 끊임없이 알리며, 장기지향적인 투자를 제안해야 한다.

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The Study on the System to Estimate the Cost by Using Regression in the Early Stage of the Project (공사 초기단계에서의 회귀분석을 이용한 최종공사비(EAC) 추정 방법)

  • Lee, Youn-Mi;Lee, Man-Hee;Lee, Hak-Ki
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute Of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • 2006.11a
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    • pp.274-277
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    • 2006
  • The EAC(Estimate at Completion) among existing methods, which estimate cost and time effectively, help managers anticipate changeable several results at the point of $15{\sim}30%$ in the project progress. However, this method may cause such some problems as not to consider the periodically changing circumstances caused by construction risks or uncertainties which can affect the cost and time in the project, and to regard collected and accumulated data only as a single value when predicting the results on the progress. Accordingly, it is very difficult to accept the even small range of variability based on the anticipation of EAC. Consequently, the study focuses on the possibility methodology to anticipate time and cost accurately on the way to utilize EVMS(Earned Value Management System), and also suggest the way to perform the right estimation of EAC as considering various risks and uncertainties in construction projects.

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Prediction System for Turbidity Exclusion in Imha Reservoir (임하호 탁수 대응을 위한 예측 시스템)

  • Jeong, Seokil;Choi, Hyun Gu;Kim, Hwa Yeong;Lim, Tae Hwan
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2021.06a
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    • pp.487-487
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    • 2021
  • 탁수는 유기물 또는 무기물이 유입되면서 빛의 투과성이 낮아진 수체를 의미한다. 탁수가 발생하게 되면 어류의 폐사, 정수처리 비용의 증가 및 경관의 변화로 인한 피해가 발생하게 된다. 국내에서는 홍수기 또는 태풍 시 유역의 토사가 저수지 상류에서 유입하여 호내의 탁수를 발생시키는 경우가 있는데, 특히 낙동강 유역의 임하호에서 빈번하게 고탁수가 발생하여 왔다. 본 연구에서는 임하호에서 탁수 발생 시 신속 배제를 위한 수치적인 예측 시스템을 소개하고자 한다. 저수지 탁수관리의 기본개념은 용수공급능력을 고려한 고탁수의 신속한 배제이다. 이는 선제적 의사결정을 요구하므로, 지류에서 탁수가 발생한 즉시 향후 상황에 대한 예측이 필요하다. 이러한 예측을 위해 유역관리처는 3단계의 수치해석을 수행한다. 첫 번째는 유역 상류에서 탁수가 감지되었을 때, 호 내 탁수의 분포를 예측하는 것이다. 수심 및 수평방향의 탁수 분포에 대한 상세한 결과가 도출되어야 하기에, 3차원 수치해석 프로그램인 AEM3D를 이용한다. 이때, 과거 고탁수 유입에 대한 자료를 기반으로 산정된 매개변수가 적용된다. 두 번째는 예측된 호내 분포를 초기조건으로 댐 방류량 및 취수탑 위치(선택배제)에 따른 탁수 배제 수치해석을 수행하게 된다. 다양하고 많은 case에 대한 신속한 모의 및 3달 이상의 장기간 예측을 요구하므로, 2차원 수치모델인 CE-QUAL-W2를 활용한다. 이 단계에서 수자원의 안정적 공급이 가능한 범위 내에서 효과적인 탁수 배제 방류 방법 등이 결정되며, 방류 탁도가 예측된다. 세 번째 단계는 방류탁도를 경계조건으로 하여 하류 하천(반변천~내성천 합류 전)의 탁도를 예측하는 것이다. 하천의 탁도 예측은 국내뿐만 아니라 국외에서도 그 사례를 찾아보기가 쉽지 않은데, 이는 중소형의 지류에 대한 입력자료가 충분하지 않고 불확실성이 높기 때문이다. 이에 과거 10여 년의 data를 이용한 회귀분석을 통해 탁수 발생물질(SS)-부유사-유량과의 관계를 도출하고, 2차원 하천모델(EFDC)을 이용하여 수심 평균 탁도를 예측하게 된다. 이러한 세 단계의 예측은 탁수가 호내로 유입됨에 따라 반복되고, 점차 예측 정확도가 향상되게 된다. 세 단계의 과정을 통한 임하호 탁수의 조기 배제는 현재 적지 않은 효과를 거두고 있다고 판단된다. 그러나 탁수를 발생시키는 현탁물질의 종류는 매번 일정하지 않기 때문에, 이러한 예측 시스템에 정확도에 영향을 줄 수 있으므로, 여러 상황을 고려한 딥러닝을 도입하여 탁수 물질에 대한 정보를 예측한다면 보다 합리적인 의사결정 지원 도구가 될 수 있을 것이다.

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A Study on the Application Methodology of Set-based Design Approach of Outrigger System based on Lean Process (린 프로세스 기반 아웃리거 시스템의 Set-based Design 적용 방안에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Seung-Il;Cho, Young-Sang
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.12 no.4
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    • pp.50-58
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    • 2011
  • Lean concept is management philosophy that defines a customer's value and eliminates wasteful and impeditive factors. Management philosophy of Lean in the construction industry is referred to as "Lean Construction". Now this concept has expanded to achieve effective productivity during the design phase. Currently the norm of the domestic design process has been Point-based Design(PBD). It involves selecting a single structurally-feasible design option early and then refining that single design as more information becomes available throughout the design process. This single design is then re-worked until a solution is found that is feasible for all parties. On the contrary, Set-based Design(SBD) is based on lean processes to eliminate waste and improve project productivity. It focuses on keeping the design space as open as long as possible, to allow "subdesign" to advance and not labeling them as secondary in importance. Preserving the maximum number of feasible designs as long as possible reduces the likelihood that rework will be necessary and allows all project participants to utilize their unique expertise to make the project successful. This study proposes that the design methodology of minimizing waste and increasing productivity through SBD of AHP, one of the decision making process so as to compare PBD with SBD and tries to find decision making process and then suggest that application methodology through performs case study of SBD process.