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Development of a Feasibility Evaluation Model for Apartment Remodeling with the Number of Households Increasing at the Preliminary Stage

노후공동주택 세대수증가형 리모델링 사업의 기획단계 사업성평가 모델 개발

  • Koh, Won-kyung (Department of Architectural Engineering, Graduate School of Ajou University) ;
  • Yoon, Jong-sik (Department of Architectural Engineering, Graduate School of Ajou University) ;
  • Yu, Il-han (Future Strategy Research Division, Korea Research Institute for Construction Policy) ;
  • Shin, Dong-woo (Department of Architectural Engineering, Graduate School of Ajou University) ;
  • Jung, Dae-woon (Korea Research Institute for Construction Policy)
  • Received : 2018.11.28
  • Accepted : 2019.03.28
  • Published : 2019.07.31

Abstract

The government has steadily revised and developed laws and systems for activating remodeling of apartments in response to the problems of aged apartments. However, despite such efforts, remodeling has yet to be activated. For many reasons, this study noted that there were no tools for reasonable profitability judgements and decision making in the preliminary stages of the remodeling project. Thus, the feasibility evaluation model was developed. Generally, the profitability judgements are made after the conceptual design. However, decisions to drive remodeling projects are made at the preliminary stage. So a feasibility evaluation model is required at the preliminary stage. Accordingly, In this study, a feasibility evaluation model was developed for determining preliminary stage profitability. Construction costs, business expenses, financial expenses, and generally sales revenue were calculated using the initial available information and remodeling variables derived through the existing cases. Through this process, we developed an algorithm that can give an overview of the return on investment. In addition, the preliminary stage feasibility evaluation model developed was applied to three cases to verify the applicability of the model. Although applied in three cases, the difference between the model's forecast and actual case values is less than 5%, which is considered highly applicable. If cases are expanded in the future, it will be a useful tool that can be used in actual work. The feasibility evaluation model developed in this study will support decision making by union members, and if the model is applied in different regions, it will be expected to help local governments to understand the size of possible remodeling projects.

정부에서는 공동주택 노후화 문제에 대응하여 공동주택 리모델링 활성화를 위한 법과 제도를 꾸준히 개정 발전시켜왔다. 그러나 이러한 노력에도 불구하고 아직까지 세대수증가형 리모델링은 활성화되지 못하고 있다. 그 이유로 다양한 문제점이 있지만, 본 연구에서는 리모델링 사업 초기단계에 합리적인 사업성 분석과 의사결정을 위한 도구가 없다는 문제점에 주목하여 리모델링 사업성평가 모델을 제시하였다. 일반적으로 사업성(수익성) 판단은 리모델링 설계안 도출 이후에 이루어지기 마련인데, 리모델링 사업을 추진하기 위한 의사결정은 초기 추진위 단계에서 결정되기 때문에 기획단계 사업성 분석 모델이 필요하다. 이에 따라 기존의 단지정보와 자문 및 연구를 통해 도출한 리모델링 사업변수들을 이용하여 공사비, 사업비, 금융비, 일반분양수입비를 산출하였고, 이를 활용하여 투자수익률과 조합원 분담금을 개략적으로 산출할 수 있는 알고리즘을 개발하였다. 또한 개발된 초기단계 사업성 분석모델을 3개의 기추진 사례에 적용하여 모델의 적용성을 검증하였다. 비록 3개의 사례에 적용하였으나, 모델의 예측값과 실제 사례값의 오차는 5%이하로 본 모델의 적용성은 상당히 높다고 볼 수 있다. 향후 사례수를 늘려가면서 모델의 적용성을 높여간다면 실무에서 활용 가능한 유용한 tool이 될 수 있을 것으로 판단된다. 본 연구에서 개발된 개략 사업성 평가 모델은 입주민들의 빠른 의사결정을 지원하여 원활한 사업추진이 가능하게 할 것이며, 모델이 지역별로 다양하게 적용된다면 세대수증가형 리모델링사업 가능단지들의 규모를 파악하고 이를 지원하는 지자체의 정책 수립에도 기여할 수 있을 것으로 기대한다.

Keywords

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Fig. 1. Research procedures and methods

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Fig. 2. Changes in the number of households after Remodeling Projects

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Fig. 3. Changes in Value after Remodeling Projects

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Fig. 4. Profitability Structure of Remodeling Projects

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Fig. 5. Determination of union expenses

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Fig. 6. Feasibility evaluation model process

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Fig. 7. Relationship between contract area and floor area ratio

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Fig. 8. Operation procedure of Feasibility evaluation model

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Fig. 9. Calculate contract area of case study (EXCEL screen)

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Fig. 10. Calculate future value of case study (EXCEL screen)

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Fig. 11. Feasibility evaluation of case study (EXCEL screen)

Table 1. Study on remodeling feasibility evaluation model and Influence factor

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Table 2. Change of floor area ratio after remodeling business

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Table 3. Detailed classification of Feasibility evaluation models

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Table 4. Input Actual Data (Before remodeling business

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Table 5. Variable Data Setting

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Table 6. Identify Fixed Factor Data

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Table 7. Detailed area classification

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Table 8. Composition of total cost

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Table 9. Overview of the verification case-study

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Table 10. Contract area comparison and verification

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