• Korea journal of population studies
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• v.24 no.2
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• pp.5-45
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• 2001

Population and the environment are the basic elements of a human ecological system having intrinsic links between them. But, research on their relationships is very limited in both quantity and depth. Although the concern on the topic has grown recently, most discussions lack analytical perspectives and are largely descriptive. The tendency is blamed for problems involved in defining the term, the environment, and the paucity of data on environment. In Korea, the limitation is much grater and, therefore, this study sets a moderate aim: That is, to explore, from ecological perspectives, various implications of population change on the environment in 20th century Korea. More specifically, it examines the related theoretical discussions, the major features of population change, and changes in environmental conditions that can be assumed to have direct or indirect links with population size and urbanization. Official statistics and newspaper articles on various environmental issues consist of the major data sources.

• Fire Science and Engineering
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• v.32 no.5
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• pp.105-111
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• 2018

Based on the Statistical Yearbook of 119 Emergency Medical Services in 2017 (National Fire Agency, 2018) and Population Projection by Province: 2015~2045 (Statistics Korea, 2017), this study analyzed the effects of population changes, such as low fertility and aging on the use of ambulance services in the future. The population of Korea is expected to decline after peaking in 2031, but the number of elderly people aged over 70 is expected to continue to increase. The rates of emergency ambulance transport (REAT, the number of patients transferred per 1,000 inhabitants) are not changed significantly, compared to the recent trends, but the ambulance services for elderly over 70 years of age will increase exponentially. Therefore, the population changes due to low fertility and aging is accompanied by a quantitative and qualitative change in ambulance services, and from the long term perspectives, it is necessary to consider not only the effective response of ambulance services due to aging, but also the adjustment of existing jurisdictions due to population changes and the relocation of manpower and resources.

• Survey Research
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• v.10 no.2
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• pp.71-96
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• 2009

This paper examined the accuracy of the national population projections for the Republic of Korea produced from the 1980s to the early 2000s. Specifically, this study assessed the forecast accuracy of the Total Fertility Rate and life expectancy at birth as well as total and age-group populations. Overall, the data indicated no significant improvement in forecasting total populations. The largest forecast errors were for the young and the elderly, while projections of the working age population were comparatively accurate. The past population projections consistently over-estimated TFR but under-estimated life expectancy at birth. This study also showed that forecast errors in fertility were substantially larger than those in mortality, indicating that behaviorally determined factors are difficult to forecast.

• 프린팅코리아
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• v.11 no.8
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• pp.122-125
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• 2012

• Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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• v.103 no.4
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• pp.670-678
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• 2014

This paper analyzes the characteristics of population change and makes the population projection in the mountainous area of Korea. Mountainous areas are defined as local towns (eup or myeon) with forest area more than 70 percent of land area, population density less than 111 people per square kilometer, and plowland area less than 21 percent of land area. The population in mountainous areas has decreased dramatically, while the ageing index has increased over the past two decades. To make the population projection, the cohort-change ratios method is applied. The results revealed that a multitude of young people aged 10 to 39 moved to cities to find education and job chance and some people aged 40 and over moved to mountainous areas as the trends of urban-to-rural migration. This continuing trend will culminate in 680 thousand people in population and 1,035 of ageing index in 2030, which will lead to the unequal land development and inefficient forest management. Thus, policy makers need to develop stimulus plans to revitalize and stabilize the economy of mountainous areas.

• Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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• v.12 no.2
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• pp.120-131
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• 2009

This study measured the centripetal force and effective scope of the population spread from urban center and subcenters in order to diagnose the urban spatial structure of the formation of a multicentric city structure in Busan. The study analyzed the variability of the determination coefficient value (R square) with a negative exponential function derived from the population density model by extending the circular region into 5-km units. The aim of this study was to measure changes in the effective scope of the population centripetal force of the urban center and subcenter in 5-year intervals from 1995 to 2005 using census data. The explanatory adequacy of the population density function was examined with the bias of the function to calculate the distance error between the real location of the urban center and the optimal location, according to the population density function. To summarize the results, the value for the area of Jungangdong showed a continuous reduction, whereas Seomyeon (Bujeondong) maintained explanatory adequacy without a large change. As a whole, Busan was in the process of continuous diversification, in spite of its reduced population. Therefore, it appears necessary to strengthen the function of the urban center and subcenter and to supply adequate dwelling zones close to downtown to form a more efficient urban spatial structure. The results of the present study will be utilized as basic data for the formulation of a political approach to the efficient reorganization of spatial structure by correlating concrete spatial information with the population variability of Busan's urban center and subcenter.

• Korea journal of population studies
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• v.33 no.1
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• pp.161-189
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• 2010

Dealing with uncertainty has been a critical issue in demographic and population forecasting since 1980. This study reviews methodological developments in demographic and population forecasting over the last several decades. First, this study reviews the important issue of the uncertainty surrounding demographic forecasts. Several limitations of the traditional scenario approach to dealing with uncertainty are also discussed. Second, in forecasting demographic processes such as mortality, fertility, and migration, three approaches of stochastic forecasting are identified and discussed: expert judgment, statistical modeling, and analysis of historical forecast errors. Finally, this study discusses the current issues and directions for future research in stochastic demographic forecasting.

• Korea journal of population studies
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• v.27 no.2
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• pp.205-229
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• 2004

이 글은 강원남부 탄광지역의 쇠퇴와 인구사회학적 변동 양상을 검토하는데 그 목적이 있다. 이를 위해 우선 탄광지역의 특성을 살펴보고 탄광지역이 쇠퇴하게 된 원인을 규명하고자 한다. 그 다음으로 지역사회에 나타나고 있는 산업구조와 인구구조의 변화를 중점적으로 살피고자 한다. 연구 결과 태백지역이 쇠퇴하게 된 직접적인 요인은 석탄산업 합리화 정책의 시행으로 볼 수 있다. 이와 함께 태백지역은 탄광산업이 지역성장이 유일한 원동력이었다는 사실 즉, 탄광산업의 쇠퇴는 바로 이 지역의 급격한 경기침체와 인구유출의 직접적인 원인이 되었음을 알 수 있다. 급격한 경기침체는 산업구조의 변화에서 잘 드러나고 있으며 인구유출 양상은 지역의 인구변화 추이에서 잘 드러나고 있다. 최근 폐광지역개발지원특별법에 의해 수립된 종합개발계획도 상당 부분 무산되거나 기약 없이 미뤄지고 있다는 점과 지역개발을 강원랜드 카지노에만 지나치게 의존하고 있는 문제점 등이 드러나면서 지역경기 침체와 인구감소 추세는 계속되고 있다. 탄광지역의 주민소득 증대는 물론 새로운 고용창출로 지역경제를 활성화시키는 보다 구체적이고 실질적인 발전 전략이 필요하다.

• Spatial Information Research
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• v.20 no.2
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• pp.93-103
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• 2012

Recently metropolitan cities pursue multi centric urban spatial structure for sustainable development and efficient urban management. Thus, this study calculated population potential using data on population distributed among road nodes for the last 50 years, and based on the results. We measured the spatial variability of the multi centric structure of Busan Metropolitan City. According to the results, the multi centralization process has been continued up to recently in Busan Metropolitan City. As population potential is concentrated on sub centers, Hadan, Gupo and Haeundae areas were playing an increasingly powerful role as the center of the respective district, and Sasang and Dongrae had been losing their role as the center of their respective districts since 2000 and 1990, respectively. Additionally, in all the multi centric districts except Haeundae was observed the increase of oblongity, which is the change of spatial structure in an unbalanced way toward a specific area or direction.

• Journal of the Korean association of regional geographers
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• v.22 no.3
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• pp.599-614
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• 2016

Urban centers have been recognized as problem regions so far. However, urban centers of metropolises take a new aspect in recent years as much as the negative influence of gentrification becomes a social issue. This paper analyzes the declining trend of urban centers in six metropolises - Seoul, Busan, Daegu, Incheon, Gwangju and Daejun from 1995 to 2010. As results of analysis, it is identified that the urban centers' shrinkage got moderated recently in the metropolises, even though their resurgence is not evident. Especially it is difficult to say longer that Jongro-Gu and Jung-Gu of Seoul are declining urban centers. Easing shrinkage is most outstanding in Jung-Gu, Daegu among local metropolises. Nevertheless, a serious obstacle such as high price of housing is in the process of obvious resurgence of urban center differently from the United States, Europe and Japan.