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Stochastic Demographic and Population Forecasting  

Woo, Hae-Bong (국민연금연구원)
Publication Information
Korea journal of population studies / v.33, no.1, 2010 , pp. 161-189 More about this Journal
Abstract
Dealing with uncertainty has been a critical issue in demographic and population forecasting since 1980. This study reviews methodological developments in demographic and population forecasting over the last several decades. First, this study reviews the important issue of the uncertainty surrounding demographic forecasts. Several limitations of the traditional scenario approach to dealing with uncertainty are also discussed. Second, in forecasting demographic processes such as mortality, fertility, and migration, three approaches of stochastic forecasting are identified and discussed: expert judgment, statistical modeling, and analysis of historical forecast errors. Finally, this study discusses the current issues and directions for future research in stochastic demographic forecasting.
Keywords
Stochastic demographic and Population forecasting; Uncertainty; expert judgment; Statistical modeling; Analysis of historical forecast errors;
Citations & Related Records
Times Cited By KSCI : 2  (Citation Analysis)
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