• Title/Summary/Keyword: 도시성장모형

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Determinants of Urban Growth in Korea (시.공입체모형에 의한 한국의 도시성장 결정요인 분석)

  • 박연수
    • Journal of the Korean Regional Science Association
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    • v.13 no.2
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    • pp.93-118
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    • 1997
  • Main findings of this study are as follows. Time-space model of Korea for urban growth model is established. The variables of space model resulted in job and education, which both are significant at 0.01 level and positive. The effect of job and education on the urban growth are 0.76 and 0.29 respectively in average. the determinants for deciding the influences for job variable are income variable and price-level variable. Income variable contributes 68.66% and the direction is negative while contribution of price-level variable is 29.90% and the direction is positive. The determinants for education variable are income, unemployment and wage difference between university graduates and high school graduates. The contribution and the high school graduates. The contribution and the direction of each variable for education variable are 63.6% and positive for the unemployment variable, 15.99% and negative for the income variable and 13.75% and positive for the wage difference variable. This study in different from previous works in three ways. The first is to establish the time-space model which could consider the time and space factor simultaneously. The second is to build data bases which contain the data of almost every city and every year in Korea during the objective period, which make the analysis continuous. The third is that the general analytic framework for the study is macrosocial one rather than a behavioral one, which means the unit of analysis is the metropolitan community and each city occupies population actively through it's potential power such as jobs, education and so on rather than a city population is the passive result of migration.

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An Empirical Analysis of the Agglomeration Effects of the 4th Industry on Local Economy (4차 산업 집적이 지역경제에 미치는 영향 분석)

  • Joo, Mijin
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.21 no.3
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    • pp.375-389
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    • 2021
  • Recent years have seen a rapid boom of the 4th industry and relevant policies in regions. However there are only a few studies about the impact of the 4th industry on the local economy. This study examines the agglomeration effects of the 4th industry on regional economy by using a spatial statistical models. As a result, it was found that the agglomeration of the 4th industry had a positive effect on the productivity of the local economy, while there is not good enough evidence to prove the relationship between the 4th industry and the income of the region. These findings indicate that the impact of the agglomeration of the fourth industry on the local economy is limited. In addition, the impact on the local economy was different by the type of the fourth industry, and the manufacturing industry and financial and insurance industries had a positive impact on the growth of the local economy.

Impact of Demographic Change on the Composition of Consumption Expenditure: A Long-term Forecast (소비구조 장기전망: 인구구조 변화의 영향을 중심으로)

  • Kim, Dongseok
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.1-49
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    • 2006
  • Considering the fact that households' demographic characteristics affect consumption decision, it is conjectured that rapid demographic changes would lead to a substantial change in the composition of private consumption expenditure. This paper estimates the demand functions of various consumption items by applying the Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System(QUAIDS) model to Household Income and Expenditure Survey data, and then provides a long-term forecast of the composition of household consumption expenditure for 2005-2020. The paper shows that Korea's consumption expenditure will maintain the recent years' rapid change, of which a considerable portion is due to rapid demographic changes. Results of the paper can be utilized in forecasting the change in the industrial structure of the economy, as well as in firms' investment planning.

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Impacts of Mixed-Use Development and Transportation on Housing Values (복합용도개발과 교통이 아파트가격에 미치는 영향)

  • Lee, Keum-Sook;Kim, Kyung-Min;Song, Ye-Na
    • Journal of the Economic Geographical Society of Korea
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    • v.13 no.4
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    • pp.515-528
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    • 2010
  • This study analyzes the impacts of mixed-use development and transportation on housing values in Seoul, Korea. An index measuring the land use mix is proposed using three components of land uses, residence, office, and retail, which are the essential elements for everyday urban life. This index offers a relatively easy way in measuring the level of mixed-use and proves itself useful providing sensible and reliable results in this empirical study. Also surface and underground transportation accessibilities are measured. By covering both surface and underground, a comprehensive view of Seoul's transportation accessibility is provided. Finally, housing value models are constructed with developed variables, i.e. land use mix index and accessibility measures, as well as relevant socio-economic variables. The empirical outcomes verifies that mixed-use development and transportation accessibility positively affect housing values.

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Analysis of National Stream Drying Phenomena using DrySAT-WFT Model: Focusing on Inflow of Dam and Weir Watersheds in 5 River Basins (DrySAT-WFT 모형을 활용한 전국 하천건천화 분석: 전국 5대강 댐·보 유역의 유입량을 중심으로)

  • LEE, Yong-Gwan;JUNG, Chung-Gil;KIM, Won-Jin;KIM, Seong-Joon
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.23 no.2
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    • pp.53-69
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    • 2020
  • The increase of the impermeable area due to industrialization and urban development distorts the hydrological circulation system and cause serious stream drying phenomena. In order to manage this, it is necessary to develop a technology for impact assessment of stream drying phenomena, which enables quantitative evaluation and prediction. In this study, the cause of streamflow reduction was assessed for dam and weir watersheds in the five major river basins of South Korea by using distributed hydrological model DrySAT-WFT (Drying Stream Assessment Tool and Water Flow Tracking) and GIS time series data. For the modeling, the 5 influencing factors of stream drying phenomena (soil erosion, forest growth, road-river disconnection, groundwater use, urban development) were selected and prepared as GIS-based time series spatial data from 1976 to 2015. The DrySAT-WFT was calibrated and validated from 2005 to 2015 at 8 multipurpose dam watershed (Chungju, Soyang, Andong, Imha, Hapcheon, Seomjin river, Juam, and Yongdam) and 4 gauging stations (Osucheon, Mihocheon, Maruek, and Chogang) respectively. The calibration results showed that the coefficient of determination (R2) was 0.76 in average (0.66 to 0.84) and the Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency was 0.62 in average (0.52 to 0.72). Based on the 2010s (2006~2015) weather condition for the whole period, the streamflow impact was estimated by applying GIS data for each decade (1980s: 1976~1985, 1990s: 1986~1995, 2000s: 1996~2005, 2010s: 2006~2015). The results showed that the 2010s averaged-wet streamflow (Q95) showed decrease of 4.1~6.3%, the 2010s averaged-normal streamflow (Q185) showed decreased of 6.7~9.1% and the 2010s averaged-drought streamflow (Q355) showed decrease of 8.4~10.4% compared to 1980s streamflows respectively on the whole. During 1975~2015, the increase of groundwater use covered 40.5% contribution and the next was forest growth with 29.0% contribution among the 5 influencing factors.

An Empirical Analysis about Effect Factors of Chinese Housing Price: Focusing on FDI into China (중국 주택가격에 영향을 미치는 요인에 관한 실증분석: 중국에 대한 FDI를 중심으로)

  • Choi, Baek Ryul;Guo, Hua Bing
    • International Area Studies Review
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    • v.15 no.3
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    • pp.263-283
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    • 2011
  • As China has achieved continuous high growth, innovative housing system and rapid growth of housing finance for thirty years since its reforming and opening, Chinese real estate industry has developed rapidly, investment in real estate has increased remarkably and price of real estate has increased continuously. In particular, as China joined WTO in 2001, overseas companies have expanded investment in Chinese real estate market with chances of potential profit. Recently, management of foreign capital real estate companies has expanded from housing to office buildings and luxury shops. Besides, management has expanded from real estate development to various tasks such as management, brokerage service, lease management and financial investment. In order to measure relationship between FDI in Chinese real estate and Chinese housing price, this document utilizes not only various data such as housing price, FDI to real estate, domestic loan of real estate, interest rate and exchange rate in 35 major cities across China but also previous researches to set an empirical analysis model and analyze effects of foreigners' direct investment in Chinese real estate on Chinese housing price.

Study on Transport Policy Assessment Using the Integrated Land Use Transport Model (통합 토지이용 교통모형을 이용한 교통정책평가에 관한 연구 I: 기존사례연구를 중심으로)

  • Lee, Seung-Jae;Sohn, Jhi-Eon
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.111-120
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    • 2010
  • The policy which encourages people to use cars on the road has been based on the growth of economy in Korea. It has also caused the concentration and overcrowding in Seoul. That's because the increasing number of people possessing cars interconnects with the urban development. The transportation is a derived demand; so many scholars have recognized the importance of understanding the relationship between urban land use and transport. Considering such importance, this study theoretically compared the developed urban land use-transportation models each other and outlined the particular models briefly. Models were categorized by 2 types; optimizing model and predictive mode. Predictive model is also defined by static model, entropy based model, spatial-economic model, and activity model. After studying models, we investigated other major cities in America. This process is the pre-step for transport policy assessment. Through careful literature review, we can finally develop the integrated land-use transportation model in Seoul metropolitan area. In addition, we will be able to deal the changes of traffic demand pattern under U-Society. Consequently, the results of this study can be applied to ITS projects in the future.

A study on the Typology and Determinants for Changes in the Social Participation of Middle-aged and Older Population (중·고령자 사회참여 변화 유형화와 결정요인에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Min-Uk;Jeong, Kyu-Hyoung
    • Journal of the Korea Convergence Society
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    • v.10 no.7
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    • pp.243-249
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    • 2019
  • This study is aimed at offering a typology of changes in the social participation of middle-aged and older population and explore determinants for each type of such changes. The data employed for analysis are the 1st survey (2006) through the 6th version (2016) of the Korea Aging Research Panel Survey. Among the respondents of the panel survey, 1,327 males and 1,520 females with a total of 2,847 respondents were analyzed. As a result of applying the growth mixture modelling through the SPS 22.0 and M-plus 8.0 statistical programs, the changes in the social participation of middle-aged and older population have been classified into the 'high-decreasing', 'moderate-increasing' and 'low-stable' trajectory classes. Analysis of the determinants for each class shows that higher the education level, the more likely they are to belong to the high-decreasing and moderate-increasing classes than the low-stable class, and the more the population lives in urban areas, the more likely they are to belong to high-decreasing trajectory class than to low-stable class. Also, it was found that the probability of belonging to moderate-increasing trajectory class was higher than that of the low-stable class when there was no occupation. Through the results of these analyses, the implications of promoting social participation of middle-aged and older population were discussed.

Analysis of Statistical Characteristics of Pier-Scour Depth Formula Using Hydraulic Experiment Data (수리모형실험 자료를 이용한 교각 세굴심 산정공식의 통계적 특성 분석)

  • Kim, Jong-Sub;Chang, Hyung-Joon
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.22 no.6
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    • pp.349-356
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    • 2021
  • Since the 1960s, traffic infrastructure, such as bridges, has increased rapidly in Korea as urbanization and industrialization progressed due to economic growth. As the scale of the bridge becomes larger, stability analysis of the superstructure of the bridge is being conducted actively, but scour stability analysis for the substructure of the bridge has not been conducted sufficiently. This study is a basic investigation to prevent large-scale disasters caused by scouring in bridge piers. A simple linear regression model was used to analyze the scour depth calculated through seventeen scour depth calculation formulae, and the scour depth measured through hydraulic model experiments. As a result, the Coleman (1971) formula was the best method among the scour depth calculation formulae, and the Froehlich (1987) formula was the most effective method for calculating the scour depth. In addition, a review using a simple regression model confirmed that the scour depth calculation formulae of CSU (1993), Coleman (1971), and Froehlich (1987) can predict a similar scour depth by reflecting domestic stream characteristics. This study can calculate the scour depth reflecting the environmental conditions of Korea in future stream design.

Development of Customer Safety Model of Unsignalized Intersections on the Community Road (생활도로내 비신호교차로 이용자 안전도 모형 개발 - 서울시 생활도로내 비신호교차로를 중심으로 -)

  • Lee, Hyeong Rok;Chang, Il Joon;Lee, Soo Beom;Kim, Jang Wook
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.30 no.3D
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    • pp.205-213
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    • 2010
  • The unsignalized intersections in a community road in the city of Seoul have 3,753 traffic accidents(9%) of total 41,702 cases in 2008, not high in the occurrence rate of traffic accidents, but seem to have a quite high potential of accidents due to the unreasonable and insufficient operation of systems and facilities in the part of traffic foundations. In particular, the un-signalized intersections in a community road have an insufficient measure for safety as compared to the crossroads with signals, and there are few analysis of traffic accidents and domestic researches on the model of affecting factors. Our country also has no concept of passing priority in operating a crossroad without signals, differently from foreign countries, so the researches and safety measures for improving the safety of a crossroad without signals in a community road are urgent. Therefore, this research has developed a safety model for a crossroad without signals in a community road based on the safety image data collected through individual interviews and questionnaires for the users of unsignalized intersections in a community road, and confirmed that legal systems, road facilities, personal factors, etc. have the biggest effect on the safety of drivers. It was confirmed that the clarity of passing methods, establishment of legal systems, etc. have the biggest effect on safety in order to raise the safety of unsignalized intersections in a community road, which drivers desire.