• Survey Research
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• v.10 no.1
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• pp.73-89
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• 2009

Even though panel surveys are very useful in estimating the change between time points, they suffer from sample distortion as survey rounds proceed due to panel attrition and conditioning. This study is to report the statistical aspects of KBS-MBMR's five-rounds panel survey for the 2007 Presidential Election of Korea. Main findings are as follows. First, the attrition propensities were higher among women, among the young and the old aged, and among "None"/"Don't Know"/"Won't Say"(DK) respondents for the question asking preferred candidate. Second, there existed the conditioning effect that pushes the respondents to choose one candidate in hurry. Third. repeated measurements of the survey did not influence panel respondents on the choice of preferred candidate. if DK respondents are set. aside, and on the final voting intention of panel respondents.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.33 no.4
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• pp.499-509
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• 2020

We compared and analyzed the relationship between vote intention, vote expectation, and party approval rate using the 19th Presidential Election and the 7th Nationwide Simultaneous Local Election (Regional Local Government Election) poll data. The case study provides an alternative method of predicting the winner using vote expectation and a party approval rate that can improve the accuracy of election forecasting.

• Korean journal of communication and information
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• v.62
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• pp.159-178
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• 2013

The current study examined the effects of the voters' perception of television news coverage of election poll results on their political participation intention. 700 voters participated in a telephone interview three weeks before the 2012 Korean presidential election. A structural equation modeling with the nationally representative sample was performed. The findings indicate the respondents were more likely to evaluate television news coverage of election poll results negatively when the news coverage presented that the candidate they supported was behind in the race, and the negative evaluation was linked to a greater third-person perception. The third-person perception, in turn, had an indirect effect on political participation intention through negative emotional responses. The results imply that voters' political position influences their perception of the television news coverage of election poll results, and this perception can have indirect effects on political participation.

• Journal of the Korea Convergence Society
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• v.8 no.6
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• pp.199-207
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• 2017

This study would analyze the visual expression elements, including layout, color, picture and typography in the election posters with the five main candidates of the 19th Presidential Election as the targets of the analysis. This study analyzed the candidates' images in the election posters and conducted a survey of the visual expression elements survey by the age of the voters. As a result of the analysis, Presidential Candidate Moon Jae-in felt fresh, and Yoo Seung-min like Moon had high percentages in layout and color, highlighting his clean image. Hong Jun-pyo had the most diverse preferences by age, and Ahn Cheol-soo, who showed the most unprecedented poster, too, had diverse preferences by age. Shim Sang-jung, who emphasized her familiar image, had preferences for her visual expression elements by all age groups in the following order: layout, color, picture and typography. Therefore, in order to utilize the visual expressions of the election posters, effectively, it is necessary to clarify the messages that the candidates would claim. For this purpose, objective research should continue so that they can be further developed artistically and academically through broad understanding and analysis of the voters rather than subjective expressions.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.11 no.1
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• pp.83-95
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• 1998

Statistical models are proposed for analyzing categorical data in the presence of missing observations or nonresponses which might occur in the sampling surveys and polls. As an illustration, we analyzed real polling data of the pre-presidential election in the USA, 1948, It had been predicted that Dewey would win the election. However, Truman won in the actual election.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.25 no.1
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• pp.53-64
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• 2014

One of the major problems to forecast election, especially based on survey, is nonresponse. We may have different forecasting results depend on method of imputation. Handling nonresponse is more important in a survey about sensitive subject, such as presidential election. In this research, we consider a model based method of nonresponse imputation. A model based imputation method should be constructed based on assumption of nonresponse mechanism and may produce different results according to the nonresponse mechanism. An assumption of the nonresponse mechanism is very important precondition to forecast the accurate results. However, there is no exact way to verify assumption of the nonresponse mechanism. In this paper, we compared the accuracy of prediction and assumption of nonresponse mechanism based on the result of presidential election exit poll. We consider maximum likelihood estimation method based on EM algorithm to handle assumption of the model of nonresponse. We also consider modified within precinct error which Bautista (2007) proposed to compare the predict result.

• Journal of Digital Convergence
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• v.12 no.5
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• pp.13-24
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• 2014

This study is the first model to apply the concept of media engagement to a political campaign by which the voters' mind toward the supporting political candidates, are read. Thus it provides the theoretical and practical implications to the political campaign, and eventually contributes to the development of democracy. For these objectives, the total of 729 people who have the right to vote were telephone surveyed using the peoplemeter, CATI program in the 18th Presidential Election (12 areas including Seoul) of Dec. 19th 2012, and Re and By-election of April 24th 2013. Research question is to examine how the 5 attributes of the media engagement (interest, immersion, relevance, satisfaction and participation), play a role as the moderating variables in cross-correlation, socio-economic status and media properties. The result shows that of the five properties of media engagement, the relevant factor is the important parameter of mediating variable to the causal relationship. The media usage (TV, SNS, print media), socio-economic status (gender, age, income, marriage and area), involvement and the Presidential Election, and Re and By-election are also effective in the five attributes of media engagement. These results suggest that the a study model can measure the campaign effectiveness. This study will contribute significantly to the development of politics, election, media, advertising, and public relations area as well as to promote interdisciplinary research.

• Journal of Digital Convergence
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• v.14 no.2
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• pp.397-414
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• 2016

There will be coming soon a sequence of the so-called election season in Korea. That is the 20th session of general elections and the 19th presidential election which are taking place one after another. When we talk about presidential candidate, we may realize that the choice were relied upon candidate's facial appearance and speech, voice, dress, and so on. One poll showed that capacity and policy were ranked high and figure and image were ranked next by asking "what is the most important factor when you vote for the president?" This study looked into the candidate's face of a newly elected public office through the election voting. I studied how the factors of sex and beauty may affect on the election results. I analyse survey of candidate's photo on the election leaflets. Analyzed result said that candidate's competency and trust have strong relations in the voting choice rather than beauty even if it is statistically significant. I also find that both beauty and competency are positively interrelated.

• Korean journal of communication and information
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• v.42
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• pp.79-106
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• 2008

Based on the third-person effect hypothesis, this study conducted a nation-wide online survey to assess how Korean voters perceived the mass media's effect on the candidates' image and voting behavior during the 17th presidential election. The research results showed that the voters tended to perceive that the mass media such as newspaper, television and the Internet had a greater effect on others than on themselves with regards to the formation of the three candidates' images. The third-person effect on the voting behavior was also revealed differently in terms of the medium according to age and political tendency of the voters. For instance, the younger and liberal voters were likely to see newspaper as having a greater influence on other voters' choice of candidate, while the older voters saw TV as having a greater effect on other voters. The conservative tendency did not affect the perception of the voters at all. Another noteworthy result was that personal characteristics of the candidates' images such as appearances and communication skills did not affect the voters' behaviors in the election process.

• Journal of Digital Convergence
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• v.16 no.2
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• pp.195-201
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• 2018

Smartphones and PCs have become essential components of our daily life. People are expressing their opinions freely in SNS by using these devices. We are able to predict public opinions on specific subject by analyzing the related big data in SNS. In this paper, we have collected opinion data in SNS and analyzed reputation by text mining in order to make a prediction for the will of the people before 19th presidential election in South Korea. The result shows that our method makes more accurate estimate than other election polls.