Browse > Article
http://dx.doi.org/10.7465/jkdi.2014.25.1.53

A comparison study for accuracy of exit poll based on nonresponse model  

Kwak, Jeongae (Department of Statistics, Daegu University)
Choi, Boseung (Department of Statistics and Computer Science, Daegu University)
Publication Information
Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society / v.25, no.1, 2014 , pp. 53-64 More about this Journal
Abstract
One of the major problems to forecast election, especially based on survey, is nonresponse. We may have different forecasting results depend on method of imputation. Handling nonresponse is more important in a survey about sensitive subject, such as presidential election. In this research, we consider a model based method of nonresponse imputation. A model based imputation method should be constructed based on assumption of nonresponse mechanism and may produce different results according to the nonresponse mechanism. An assumption of the nonresponse mechanism is very important precondition to forecast the accurate results. However, there is no exact way to verify assumption of the nonresponse mechanism. In this paper, we compared the accuracy of prediction and assumption of nonresponse mechanism based on the result of presidential election exit poll. We consider maximum likelihood estimation method based on EM algorithm to handle assumption of the model of nonresponse. We also consider modified within precinct error which Bautista (2007) proposed to compare the predict result.
Keywords
Election prediction; exit poll; nonresponse mechanism;
Citations & Related Records
Times Cited By KSCI : 9  (Citation Analysis)
연도 인용수 순위
1 Baker, S. G. and Laird, N. M. (1988). Regression analysis for categorical variables with outcome subject to nonignorable nonresponse. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 83, 62-69.   DOI   ScienceOn
2 Bautista, R., Callegaro, M., Vera, J. A. and Abundis, F. (2007). Studying nonresponse in mexican exit pollsm. International Journal of Public Opinion Research, 19, 492-503.   DOI   ScienceOn
3 Chambers, R. L. and Welsh, A. H. (1993). Log-linear models for survey data with non-ignorable nonresponse. Journal of Royal Statistical Society B, 55, 157-170.
4 Cho, Y. S., Chun, Y. M. and Hwang, D. Y. (2008). An imputation for nonresponses in the survey on the rural living indicators. The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics, 21, 95-107.   과학기술학회마을   DOI   ScienceOn
5 Choi, B., Choi, J. W. and Park, Y. S. (2009). Bayesian methods for an incomplete two-way contingency table with application to the Ohio (Buckeye state polls). Survey Methodology, 35, 37-51.
6 Choi, B. and Kim, G. M. (2012). A model selection method using EM algorithm for missing data. Journal of the Korean Data Analysis Society, 14, 767-779.
7 Choi, B., Kim, D. Y., Kim, K. W. and Park, Y. S. (2008). Nonignorable nonresponse imputation and rotation group bias estimation on the rotation sample survey. The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics, 21, 361-375.   과학기술학회마을   DOI   ScienceOn
8 Choi, B., Park, Y. S. and Lee, D. H. (2007). Election forecasting using pre-election survey data with nonignorable nonresponse. Journal of the Korean Data Analysis Society, 9, 2321-2333.
9 Crespi, I. (1988). Pre-election polling: Sources of accuracy and error, Russel Sage, New York.
10 Yoon, Y. H. and Choi, B. (2012). Model selection method for categorical data with non-response. Journal of the Korean Data & Information Science Society, 23, 627-641.   과학기술학회마을   DOI   ScienceOn
11 Dempster, A. P., Laird, N. M. and Rubin, D. M. (1977). Maximum likelihood from incomplete data via the EM algorithm. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society B, 4, 1-38.
12 Fay, R. E. (1986). Causal models for patterns of nonresponse. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 81, 354-365.   DOI   ScienceOn
13 Hong, N. R. and Huh, M. H. (2001). A post-examination of forecasting survey for the 16th general election. The Korean Association for Survey Research, 2, 1-35.   과학기술학회마을
14 Hyun, K. B. (2005). A study on the election poll and its accuracy in th 17th general election. Korea Regional Communication Research Association, 5, 301-336.
15 Ibrahim, J. G., Zhu, H. and Tang, N. (2008). Model selection criteria for missing-data problems using the EM algorithm. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 103, 1648-1658.   DOI   ScienceOn
16 Kim, K. S. (2000). Imputation methods for nonresponse and their effect. The Korean Association for Survey Research, 1, 1-14.   과학기술학회마을
17 Kim, Y. W. and Choi, Y. J. (2011). Systematic forecasting bias of exit poll: Analysis of exit poll for 2010 local elections. The Korean Association for Survey Research, 12, 25-48.   과학기술학회마을
18 Kim, Y. W. and Kim, J. H. (2007). An overview of exit polls for the 2006 local elections. The Korean Association for Survey Research, 8, 55-79.   과학기술학회마을
19 Kim, Y. W. and Kwak, E. S. (2010). A total survey error analysis of the exit polling for general election 2008 in korea. The Korean Association for Survey Research, 11, 33-55.   과학기술학회마을
20 Agresti, A. (2002). Categorical data analysis, second edition, John Wiley & Sons Inc., New Jersey.
21 Baek, J. E., Kang, W. C., Lee, Y. J. and Park, B. J. (2002). An approach to survey data with nonresponse: evaluation of KEPEC data with BMI. Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health, 35, 136-140.
22 Park, T. and Brown, M. B. (1994). Models for categorical data with nonignorable nonresponse. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 89, 44-52.   DOI   ScienceOn
23 Lee, H. J. and Kang, S. B. (2012). Handling the nonresponse in sample survey. Journal of the Korean Data & Information Science Society, 23, 1183-1194.   과학기술학회마을   DOI   ScienceOn
24 Lee, J. H., Kim, j. and Lee, K. J. (2006). Missing imputation methods using the spatial variable in sample survey. The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics, 19, 57-67.   과학기술학회마을   DOI   ScienceOn
25 Little, J. A. and Rubin, D. B. (2002). Statistical analysis with missing data, second edition, Wiley, New York.
26 Park, T. S. and Lee, S. Y. (1998). Analysis of categorical data with nonresponses. The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics, 11, 83-95.   과학기술학회마을
27 Park, Y. S. and Choi, B. (2010). Bayesian analysis for incomplete multi-way contingency tables with nonignorable nonresponse. Journal of Applied Statistics, 37, 1439-1453.   DOI   ScienceOn
28 Rhee, J. W. (2004). Problems of the election forecasting in the 2004 korean general election. Journal of Communication Research, 41, 110-135.
29 Ryu, J. B. (2000). A plan of improving the reliability of the electon forecasting survey - A case of the 16th general election. The Korean Association for Survey Research, 1, 15-34.   과학기술학회마을
30 Ryu, J. B. (2003). A history and th improvable direction of exit poll. The Korean Association for Survey Research, 4, 31-48.