• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국수자원학회 2010년도 학술발표회
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• pp.591-595
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• 2010

Conventional methods of model evaluation usually rely only on model performance based on a comparison of simulated variables to corresponding observations. However, this type of model evaluation has been criticized because of its insufficient consideration of the various uncertainty sources involved in modeling processes. This study aims to propose an extended model evaluation method using multiple assesment indices (MAIs) that consider not only the model performance but also the model structure and parameter uncertainties in rainfall-runoff modeling. A simple reservoir model (SFM) and distributed kinematic wave models (KWMSS1 and KWMSS2 using topography from 250m, 500m, and 1km digital elevation models) were developed and assessed by three MAIs for model performance, model structural stability, and parameter identifiability. All the models provided acceptable performance in terms of a global response, but the simpler SFM and KWMSS1 could not accurately represent the local behaviors of hydrographs. In addition, SFM and KWMSS1 were structurally unstable; their performance was sensitive to the applied objective functions. On the other hand, the most sophisticated model, KWMSS2, performed well, satisfying both global and local behaviors. KMSS2 also showed good structural stability, reproducing hydrographs regardless of the applied objective functions; however, superior parameter identifiability was not guaranteed. Numerous parameter sets could lead to indistinguishable hydrographs. This result supports that while making a model complex increases its performance accuracy and reduces its structural uncertainty, the model is likely to suffer from parameter uncertainty. The proposed model evaluation process can provide an effective guideline for identifying a reliable hydrologic model.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제46권5호
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• pp.619-632
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• 2014

The Best Estimate Plus Uncertainty (BEPU) method has been widely used to evaluate the uncertainty of a best-estimate thermal hydraulic system code against a figure of merit. This uncertainty is typically evaluated based on the physical model's uncertainties determined by expert judgment. This paper introduces the application of data assimilation methodology to determine the uncertainty bands of the physical models, e.g., the mean value and standard deviation of the parameters, based upon the statistical approach rather than expert judgment. Data assimilation suggests a mathematical methodology for the best estimate bias and the uncertainties of the physical models which optimize the system response following the calibration of model parameters and responses. The mathematical approaches include deterministic and probabilistic methods of data assimilation to solve both linear and nonlinear problems with the a posteriori distribution of parameters derived based on Bayes' theorem. The inverse problem was solved analytically to obtain the mean value and standard deviation of the parameters assuming Gaussian distributions for the parameters and responses, and a sampling method was utilized to illustrate the non-Gaussian a posteriori distributions of parameters. SPACE is used to demonstrate the data assimilation method by determining the bias and the uncertainty bands of the physical models employing Bennett's heated tube test data and Becker's post critical heat flux experimental data. Based on the results of the data assimilation process, the major sources of the modeling uncertainties were identified for further model development.

• Bulletin of the Korean Chemical Society
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• 제20권8호
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• pp.910-916
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• 1999

A current interest in chemistry concerns traceability of analytical measurements to the International System of Units (SI) and the proper estimation of their uncertainties in accordance with the internationally agreed guide provided by the International Organization for Standardization (ISO). Isotope dilution mass spectrometry (IDMS) is regarded as a primary method, which make the measurement results traceable to SI units without significant empirical correction factors. Our laboratory, as the national standards institute of Korea, participated in an intercomparison of environmental analysis, pp'-DDE in corn oil, which was organized by the CCQM under supervision of the CIPM to test feasibility of IDMS as a primary method for the trace analysis of organic compounds. In this report, we provide basic equations used for the calculation of the concentration of the analyte in a sample and a precise description of the processes for the evaluation of the uncertainties of the measurement results. Also, we report the experimental conditions adopted to improve the accuracy of the IDMS measurement. The principles contained in ？？Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement'' provided by ISO are followed for the uncertainty evaluation.

• 대한기계학회논문집B
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• 제27권8호
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• pp.1071-1080
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• 2003

A national standard system was developed in order to calibrate and test the oil flowmeters for the petroleum field. A stop valve and a gyroscopic weighing scale were employed for the primary standard of the flow quantity. It is operated by the standing start and finish mode and the static weighing method. The model equation for uncertainty evaluation was based on the calibration principle of standard system. The sources of the uncertainties were quantified and combined according to the GUM(Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement). It was found that the standard system had the relative expanded uncertainty of 0.04 % in the range of 18 - 350 ㎥/ｈ. According to the uncertainty budget, the uncertainties of the fluid density and the volume of pipeline, which were temperature dependent, contributed 92% of final uncertainty in the oil flow standard system.

• 대한기계학회논문집
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• 제15권5호
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• pp.1635-1639
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• 1991

본 연구에서는 제1보에서의 수법을 이용하여 초기크랙길이의 분포를 고려한 재료의 불확정성 평가수법을 제시하고자 한다.

• 한국군사과학기술학회지
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• 제13권4호
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• pp.665-672
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• 2010

This paper describes Monte Carlo Simulation(MCS) to assess the uncertainty of dynamic pressure calibrator and the expanded uncertainty results that were compared by GUM approximation and MCS. MCS uncertainties were computed using defining a domain of possible inputs, generating inputs randomly using probability distribution, performing a deterministic computation repeatedly and aggregating the results. It was revealed that the expanded uncertainty between GUM and MCS was different from each other. the expanded uncertainties were 0.5366%, 0.4856%, respectively. MCS is a suitable method for determining the uncertainty of simple and complex measurement systems. It should be more widely used and studied in measurement uncertainty calculations.

• 한국지반공학회논문집
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• 제29권3호
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• pp.41-50
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• 2013

지반 해석 결과에는 항상 불확실성이 존재하며, 이러한 불확실성은 주로 지반 구조의 불확실한 평가에 기인한다. 이러한 지반 구조의 불확실성에 따른 지반 해석 결과의 불확실성은 몬테카를로 시뮬레이션을 사용한 확률론적 해석에 의해 고려될 수 있다. 몬테카를로 시뮬레이션을 사용한 확률론적 지반 해석의 수행을 위해서는 대상 지반에서 존재 가능한 다양한 지반 구조의 생성이 필요하다. 본 연구에서는 확률론적 지반 해석을 위한 대상 지반에서 존재 가능한 다양한 지반 구조 생성 방법을 제안하였다. 제안된 방법은 대상 지반에서 획득된 지반 조사 결과를 바탕으로 하모닉 웨이브릿 변환을 사용하여 지반 구조를 평가한 후, 이로부터 대상 지반에 존재 가능한 다양한 지반 구조를 생성할 수 있다. 제안된 방법은 실제 현장 조사 결과들에 적용되었으며 이를 통해 제안된 방법의 현장 적용성을 확인할 수 있었다.

• 한국음향학회지
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• 제43권3호
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• pp.344-350
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• 2024

기준음원은 음향파워 측정에 활용되는 중요한 기준기로, 국제 표준으로 그 사양이 규정되어 있으며, 측정 표준 분야에서 주요 교정 품목으로 분류되고 있다. 이러한 기준음원은 공급 전압에 의하여 그 출력이 영향을 받기 때문에 각국에서 자체적으로 교정 서비스 체계를 확보할 필요가 있다. 본 연구에서는 잔향실 조건에서 기준음원을 교정하는 절차를 수립하고 불확도를 평가하였다. 교정 절차는 기본적으로 음향 파워의 정밀급 측정과정을 적용할 수 있으며, 여기서는 ISO 3741의 잔향실을 활용한 측정 방법을 검토하였다. 이를 위한 측정 시스템을 구성하고 실제 2종의 기준 음원에 대하여 측정을 수행하고 측정 불확도를 산출하였다. 측정 예를 통하여 잔향실 내 음압 분포의 불균일성과 체적 측정 불확도가 전체 불확도에 기여가 큰 것을 확인하였다. 추가적으로 입력 전압에 대한 영향을 실험적으로 검토하여 음향 파워 측정에서 반영할 수 있는 불확도 기여량을 검토하였다.

• 한국정보시스템학회지:정보시스템연구
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• 제17권3호
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• pp.25-37
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• 2008

In a fault tree analysis, an uncertainty importance measure is often used to assess how much uncertainty of the top event probability (Q) is attributable to the uncertainty of a basic event probability ($q_i$), and thus, to identify those basic events whose uncertainties need to be reduced to effectively reduce the uncertainty of Q. For evaluating the measures suggested by many authors which assess a percentage change in the variance V of Q with respect to unit percentage change in the variance $v_i$ of $q_i$, V and ${\partial}V/{\partial}v_i$ need to be estimated analytically or by Monte Carlo simulation. However, it is very complicated to analytically compute V and ${\partial}V/{\partial}v_i$ for large-sized fault trees, and difficult to estimate them in a robust manner by Monte Carlo simulation. In this paper, we propose a method for evaluating the measure using discretization technique and Monte Carlo simulation. The proposed method provides a stable uncertainty importance of each basic event.

• 한국지반환경공학회 논문집
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• 제16권5호
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• pp.13-25
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• 2015

This paper proposes an extended model evaluation method that considers not only the model performance but also the model structure and parameter uncertainties in hydrologic modeling. A simple reservoir model (SFM) and distributed kinematic wave models (KWMSS1 and KWMSS2 using topography from 250-m, 500-m, and 1-km digital elevation models) were developed and assessed by three evaluative criteria for model performance, model structural stability, and parameter identifiability. All the models provided acceptable performance in terms of a global response, but the simpler SFM and KWMSS1 could not accurately represent the local behaviors of hydrographs. Moreover, SFM and KWMSS1 were structurally unstable; their performance was sensitive to the applied objective functions. On the other hand, the most sophisticated model, KWMSS2, performed well, satisfying both global and local behaviors. KMSS2 also showed good structural stability, reproducing hydrographs regardless of the applied objective functions; however, superior parameter identifiability was not guaranteed. A number of parameter sets could result in indistinguishable hydrographs. This result indicates that while making hydrologic models complex increases its performance accuracy and reduces its structural uncertainty, the model is likely to suffer from parameter uncertainty.