• 제목/요약/키워드: statistical learning theory

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고등학교 기술·가정 교과 '창의 공학 설계' 단원 수업에 대한 교수·학습 운영 실태 분석 및 개선 방안 (A Study on the Teaching·Learning Management Status and Improvement Plan about 'Creative Engineering Design' Lesson of 'Technology·Home Economics Subject' for High School Teachers)

  • 김성일;임윤진
    • 대한공업교육학회지
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    • 제41권1호
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    • pp.128-146
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    • 2016
  • 이 연구의 목적은 고등학교 기술 가정 교과 담당 교사를 대상으로 기술 가정 교과'창의 공학 설계' 단원 수업에 대한 교수 학습 운영 실태 분석 및 개선 방안 연구를 통해 교수 학습 능력과 수업의 질 향상을 위한 기초 자료를 제공하고자 하는데 있다. 이 연구를 위하여 현재 고등학교 기술 가정을 지도하고 있는 교사 63명을 대상으로 온라인 설문지, e-mail 등을 통한 설문조사를 통하여 자료를 수집하였다. 연구에 사용된 설문 조사 도구는 문헌 연구를 통하여 연구자 2인이 공동으로 개발하여 전문가 4인의 검토를 받아 수정하여 활용하였다. 수집한 자료에 대하여 통계 프로그램(SPSS, Ver. 20)을 활용하여 분석한 주요 결과를 요약하면 다음과 같다. 첫째, 기술 가정과 교사들은 '창의 공학 설계' 수업 내용으로 '창의 사고 기법' 교육을 가장 중요하게 여기고 있으며, 주요 학습 활동 내용으로 '아이디어 구상'에 촛점을 두고 있었다. 둘째, 기술 가정과 교사들은 '창의 공학 설계' 수업 운영을 위해서 '실습 공구 및 재료비 확보' 및 '수업 공간 확보'를 가장 우선적으로 고려하며, 단원의 특성에 맞는 '교수 학습 전략의 수립'이 중요하다고 응답하였다. 셋째, 기술 가정과 교사들이 기대하는 학생 작품 수준은 '교과서 이외의 아이디어 작품'과 '생활 속 불편함 개선을 위한 작품'으로 인식하고 있었다. 넷째, 기술 가정과 교사들은 '창의 공학 설계' 단원의 수업 시 '실습 : 이론 수업 시간 비율'을 3:7(36.5%), 4:6(25.4%), 2:8(23.8%)이 적절하다고 하였으며, 평가 방안으로 '작품+포트폴리오+발표'의 형태를 가장 선호하고 있었다. 다섯째, '창의 공학 설계' 단원의 교수 학습에 영향을 줄 수 있는 변인인 실습실 여부, 교사의 성별, 표시 과목에 따라 교사의 흥미와 만족도는 유의미한 차이를 보였다. 이상의 연구의 결과를 바탕으로 '창의 공학 설계' 단원의 수업에 대한 흥미와 만족도를 높이려면 학생들이 실습할 수 있는 공간과 재료비의 확보가 필요하고, 교사들은 창의 공학 설계 수업에 대한 역량을 신장시키기 위한 연수와 세미나 프로그램의 개발이 필요할 것으로 사료된다.

Wavelet Thresholding Techniques to Support Multi-Scale Decomposition for Financial Forecasting Systems

  • Shin, Taeksoo;Han, Ingoo
    • 한국데이타베이스학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국데이타베이스학회 1999년도 춘계공동학술대회: 지식경영과 지식공학
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    • pp.175-186
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    • 1999
  • Detecting the features of significant patterns from their own historical data is so much crucial to good performance specially in time-series forecasting. Recently, a new data filtering method (or multi-scale decomposition) such as wavelet analysis is considered more useful for handling the time-series that contain strong quasi-cyclical components than other methods. The reason is that wavelet analysis theoretically makes much better local information according to different time intervals from the filtered data. Wavelets can process information effectively at different scales. This implies inherent support fer multiresolution analysis, which correlates with time series that exhibit self-similar behavior across different time scales. The specific local properties of wavelets can for example be particularly useful to describe signals with sharp spiky, discontinuous or fractal structure in financial markets based on chaos theory and also allows the removal of noise-dependent high frequencies, while conserving the signal bearing high frequency terms of the signal. To date, the existing studies related to wavelet analysis are increasingly being applied to many different fields. In this study, we focus on several wavelet thresholding criteria or techniques to support multi-signal decomposition methods for financial time series forecasting and apply to forecast Korean Won / U.S. Dollar currency market as a case study. One of the most important problems that has to be solved with the application of the filtering is the correct choice of the filter types and the filter parameters. If the threshold is too small or too large then the wavelet shrinkage estimator will tend to overfit or underfit the data. It is often selected arbitrarily or by adopting a certain theoretical or statistical criteria. Recently, new and versatile techniques have been introduced related to that problem. Our study is to analyze thresholding or filtering methods based on wavelet analysis that use multi-signal decomposition algorithms within the neural network architectures specially in complex financial markets. Secondly, through the comparison with different filtering techniques' results we introduce the present different filtering criteria of wavelet analysis to support the neural network learning optimization and analyze the critical issues related to the optimal filter design problems in wavelet analysis. That is, those issues include finding the optimal filter parameter to extract significant input features for the forecasting model. Finally, from existing theory or experimental viewpoint concerning the criteria of wavelets thresholding parameters we propose the design of the optimal wavelet for representing a given signal useful in forecasting models, specially a well known neural network models.

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Wavelet Thresholding Techniques to Support Multi-Scale Decomposition for Financial Forecasting Systems

  • Shin, Taek-Soo;Han, In-Goo
    • 한국지능정보시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국지능정보시스템학회 1999년도 춘계공동학술대회-지식경영과 지식공학
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    • pp.175-186
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    • 1999
  • Detecting the features of significant patterns from their own historical data is so much crucial to good performance specially in time-series forecasting. Recently, a new data filtering method (or multi-scale decomposition) such as wavelet analysis is considered more useful for handling the time-series that contain strong quasi-cyclical components than other methods. The reason is that wavelet analysis theoretically makes much better local information according to different time intervals from the filtered data. Wavelets can process information effectively at different scales. This implies inherent support for multiresolution analysis, which correlates with time series that exhibit self-similar behavior across different time scales. The specific local properties of wavelets can for example be particularly useful to describe signals with sharp spiky, discontinuous or fractal structure in financial markets based on chaos theory and also allows the removal of noise-dependent high frequencies, while conserving the signal bearing high frequency terms of the signal. To data, the existing studies related to wavelet analysis are increasingly being applied to many different fields. In this study, we focus on several wavelet thresholding criteria or techniques to support multi-signal decomposition methods for financial time series forecasting and apply to forecast Korean Won / U.S. Dollar currency market as a case study. One of the most important problems that has to be solved with the application of the filtering is the correct choice of the filter types and the filter parameters. If the threshold is too small or too large then the wavelet shrinkage estimator will tend to overfit or underfit the data. It is often selected arbitrarily or by adopting a certain theoretical or statistical criteria. Recently, new and versatile techniques have been introduced related to that problem. Our study is to analyze thresholding or filtering methods based on wavelet analysis that use multi-signal decomposition algorithms within the neural network architectures specially in complex financial markets. Secondly, through the comparison with different filtering techniques results we introduce the present different filtering criteria of wavelet analysis to support the neural network learning optimization and analyze the critical issues related to the optimal filter design problems in wavelet analysis. That is, those issues include finding the optimal filter parameter to extract significant input features for the forecasting model. Finally, from existing theory or experimental viewpoint concerning the criteria of wavelets thresholding parameters we propose the design of the optimal wavelet for representing a given signal useful in forecasting models, specially a well known neural network models.

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한의학(韓醫學) 학위논문(學位論文)의 내용(內容)에 대(對)한 조사연구(調査硏究) (A Statistical Study on the Contents of Theses of Oriental Medicine)

  • 박종운;박찬국
    • 대한한의학원전학회지
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    • 제7권
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    • pp.161-197
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    • 1994
  • I hereby have gained the following results by investigation and classification according to the contents of Masterial theses of 1015 volumes and Doctorial theses of 288 volumes, which have collected at their central libriaries, of theses which have published, until 1991, at Oriental Medical College of Kyunghee Univ., Kyungsan Univ., Dongguk Univ. and Taejon Univ. 1. The laboratory theses are more plentiful in number than those of literatural or clinical ones, especially more outstanding trends in the case of doctors. 2. In clinical theses, clinical obserbation was high frequnt in master and accupunture in doctor. 3. In laboratory theses, the usage of pharmacy was more frequnt than that of accupuntures or moxibutions. 4. In laboratory theses, it was more plentiful the case of being taken ill before experiment. 5. In experimental method, the drugs were more used complexed or complexed extract, in the case of accupunture, the methods were more adopted by general accup. and aqureaccupunture. 6. In laboritory theses, theses was abundant of no description of normal, control and laboratory groop. 7. It was the great number wi thin a day in the laboratory terms, the rats were most adopted as the objects of lab., in the number of lab method, doctor's was more plentiful than master's. 8. In literatural theses, there was expressed high frequnt trends of study of china, in era, Chosun dynasty in korea and Jin-Han in china. 9. The theory and books were mainly adopted as objects of theses study in the field of literature. 10. In another theses, there was many investigation of contents and drug and sign of illness were main object of study. 11. Laboratory theses had totally more reference and quotation than those of other theses. According to the above results, the number of laboratory theses are superior than clincal and literature theses, other study or statistical theses. But unfortunately they were not enough the transmission of meaning of theses and contribution of learning, beacuse how to do theses was not uni form and description was not evident. So afterward I think it is needed more careful attention and study in the method of theses works.

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영재학생과 일반학생의 사고양식 차이 및 교사 특성별 사고양식 (Differences in thinking styles of students between gifted and average students and thinking styles of teachers by characteristics)

  • 윤소정;윤경미;유순화
    • 영재교육연구
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    • 제13권3호
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    • pp.19-44
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    • 2003
  • 본 연구의 목적은 Sternberg의 정신자치제 이론에 근거하여 영재학생과 일반학생의 사고양식에 특별한 차이가 있는지, 또한 영재학교와 일반학교에 근무하는 교사특성에 따라 사고양식에 차이가 있는지를 알아보는 것이었다. 본 연구를 위하여 영재 고등학생 191명과 일반 고등학생 245명, 교사 73명이 참가하여 사고양식 설문조사에 응답하였다. 연구의 주요 결과들은 다음과 같다. 첫째, 영재학생과 일반학생의 사고양식은 차이가 있었다. 영재 학생은 일반 학생에 비해 입법적, 행정적, 사법적, 전체적, 계급주의적, 내부지향적 사고를 선호하는 것으로 나타났다. 둘째, 영재학교 교사와 일반학교의 교사의 사고 양식에는 차이가 없었다. 셋째, 교사 근무연한에 따라 교사의 사고양식에 차이를 보였다. 교직 경력이 오래될수록 보다 행정적, 지엽적, 보수적 사고양식을 보였다. 넷째, 교사의 성별, 가르치는 과목에 따른 교사의 사고양식의 차이는 나타나지 않았다. 영재 교육을 계획함에 있어서 또한 영재교육을 위한 교사선발에 있어서 효과적인 영재교육을 위해 학생과 교사의 사고양식을 고려하는 것이 요청된다.

기업의 SNS 노출과 주식 수익률간의 관계 분석 (The Analysis on the Relationship between Firms' Exposures to SNS and Stock Prices in Korea)

  • 김태환;정우진;이상용
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
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    • 제24권2호
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    • pp.233-253
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    • 2014
  • Can the stock market really be predicted? Stock market prediction has attracted much attention from many fields including business, economics, statistics, and mathematics. Early research on stock market prediction was based on random walk theory (RWT) and the efficient market hypothesis (EMH). According to the EMH, stock market are largely driven by new information rather than present and past prices. Since it is unpredictable, stock market will follow a random walk. Even though these theories, Schumaker [2010] asserted that people keep trying to predict the stock market by using artificial intelligence, statistical estimates, and mathematical models. Mathematical approaches include Percolation Methods, Log-Periodic Oscillations and Wavelet Transforms to model future prices. Examples of artificial intelligence approaches that deals with optimization and machine learning are Genetic Algorithms, Support Vector Machines (SVM) and Neural Networks. Statistical approaches typically predicts the future by using past stock market data. Recently, financial engineers have started to predict the stock prices movement pattern by using the SNS data. SNS is the place where peoples opinions and ideas are freely flow and affect others' beliefs on certain things. Through word-of-mouth in SNS, people share product usage experiences, subjective feelings, and commonly accompanying sentiment or mood with others. An increasing number of empirical analyses of sentiment and mood are based on textual collections of public user generated data on the web. The Opinion mining is one domain of the data mining fields extracting public opinions exposed in SNS by utilizing data mining. There have been many studies on the issues of opinion mining from Web sources such as product reviews, forum posts and blogs. In relation to this literatures, we are trying to understand the effects of SNS exposures of firms on stock prices in Korea. Similarly to Bollen et al. [2011], we empirically analyze the impact of SNS exposures on stock return rates. We use Social Metrics by Daum Soft, an SNS big data analysis company in Korea. Social Metrics provides trends and public opinions in Twitter and blogs by using natural language process and analysis tools. It collects the sentences circulated in the Twitter in real time, and breaks down these sentences into the word units and then extracts keywords. In this study, we classify firms' exposures in SNS into two groups: positive and negative. To test the correlation and causation relationship between SNS exposures and stock price returns, we first collect 252 firms' stock prices and KRX100 index in the Korea Stock Exchange (KRX) from May 25, 2012 to September 1, 2012. We also gather the public attitudes (positive, negative) about these firms from Social Metrics over the same period of time. We conduct regression analysis between stock prices and the number of SNS exposures. Having checked the correlation between the two variables, we perform Granger causality test to see the causation direction between the two variables. The research result is that the number of total SNS exposures is positively related with stock market returns. The number of positive mentions of has also positive relationship with stock market returns. Contrarily, the number of negative mentions has negative relationship with stock market returns, but this relationship is statistically not significant. This means that the impact of positive mentions is statistically bigger than the impact of negative mentions. We also investigate whether the impacts are moderated by industry type and firm's size. We find that the SNS exposures impacts are bigger for IT firms than for non-IT firms, and bigger for small sized firms than for large sized firms. The results of Granger causality test shows change of stock price return is caused by SNS exposures, while the causation of the other way round is not significant. Therefore the correlation relationship between SNS exposures and stock prices has uni-direction causality. The more a firm is exposed in SNS, the more is the stock price likely to increase, while stock price changes may not cause more SNS mentions.

오디에이션 음악활동이 유치원 아동의 음악소질 향상에 미치는 영향 (Effect of Music activitics using audition on Music Aptitude development for Kindergarten Children)

  • 노주희
    • 인간행동과 음악연구
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    • 제1권1호
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    • pp.11-32
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    • 2004
  • 에드윈 고든(Edwin E. Gordon)에 의하면 음악소질은 선천적인 자질과 후천적인 환경이라는 두 가지 요인의 상호 작용에 의하여 결정되며 만 9세 이전에는 환경의 영향에 따라 유연하게 반응하여 환경이 좋으면 발달되고 환경이 나빠지면 수그러드는 유동음악소질의 시기에, 또한 9세 이후에는 환경의 영향에 대하여 민감하게 반응하지 않는 고정음악소질의 시기에 놓인다. 본 연구는 유동음악소질의 시기에 경험하는 풍부한 음악적 교육환경의 제공시기가 이를수록, 또한 교육의 제공기간이 길수록 소질의 향상에 미치는 효과가 더욱 크다는 음악학습이론의 가설을 증명하고자 하였다. 그리고 미국의 템플 대학의 음악학습이론 수업을 모델로 하여 설립된 유아음악감수성계발프로그램 "오디"가 계발한 오디에이션 음악활동이 음악소질에 미치는 교육효과를 검증하고자 하였다. 교육은 매주 30분 씩 연구자와 연구자 외 1인의 협력교사가 함께 아이들을 가르치는 Co-teaching 형식으로 음악지도의 형태가 아닌 음악안내의 교육방법으로 진행되었다. 다양한 조성, 가사 없는 선율노래와 리듬노래, Free-Flowing Movement를 중심으로 한 다양한 동작, 개별적 반응활동인 패턴학습 등 음악학습이론의 원칙이 지켜졌으며 대그룹 수업을 위하여 오디가 발전시킨 새로운 수업전개방식과 기술이 적용되었다. 실험집단은 각각 1년간 오디수업을 받은 만 5세 유치원 아동과 만 4세 때부터 2년간 오디수업을 받은 만 5세 유치원 아동으로서 두 집단 모두 만 5세 때 고든의 오디에이션기초평가 Primary Measures of Music Audiation(Gordon, 1979)을 사용하여 학년초, 중, 학년말 등 3회에 걸쳐 음악소질을 측정하였다. 연구의 결과는 첫째, 오디의 활동을 5세 동안 1년 교육받은 실험집단 1의 음악소질검사결과를 4세부터 2년 동안 교육받은 실험집단 2의 음악소질검사와 비교할 때 음감소질은 유의미한 차이가 없었으나 리듬소질에서는 유의미한 차이가 발생하였다. 둘째, 오디의 활동을 교육받은 실험집단과 오디의 음악수업을 받지 않은 비교집단의 학기초 음악소질검사 결과는 유의미한 차이를 보이지 않았으나 학기말 검사결과에서는 유의미한 차이를 보였다.

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지식정보처리역량 함양을 위한 데이터 기반 과학탐구 모형 개발 (Development of Data-Driven Science Inquiry Model and Strategy for Cultivating Knowledge-Information-Processing Competency)

  • 손미현;정대홍
    • 한국과학교육학회지
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    • 제40권6호
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    • pp.657-670
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    • 2020
  • 지식정보화 사회가 되면서 기존과는 다른 유형의 사회 문제들이 발생하고, 이를 파악하고 해결하는데 필수적인 역량으로 지식정보처리역량을 꼽을 수 있다. 지식정보처리역량은 정보의 수집과 분석, 활용을 할 수 있는 역량으로 학문 분야에 따라 그 적용이 달라질 수 있으므로 일반 소양적인 측면과 교과 맥락적인 측면으로 나누어 교육할 수 있다. 과학에서의 지식정보처리역량 함양 교육은 이제까지는 일반 소양적인 측면에서 주로 실행됐으므로, 과학 탐구 활동을 통해 교과 맥락적인 측면에서의 교육이 필요하다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 학교 현장에서 일반적으로 적용 가능한 지식정보처리함양을 위한 데이터 기반 과학탐구 모형과 수업전략을 개발하였다. 모형과 수업전략은 설계·개발 연구방법론에 따라 문헌연구를 바탕으로 모형과 수업전략을 1차 개발하고 전문가의 조언을 듣는 내적 타당화 과정과 실제 현장에 적용하는 외적 타당화 과정을 통해 수정, 개선하여 완성하였다. 자원기반학습 이론을 바탕으로 과학탐구 모형, 데이터 과학의 특징, 통계적 문제 해결력 모형에 대한 문헌 연구를 실시하였고, 전문가 5인의 자문을 받아 CVI, IRA 값을 구하고 면담을 통해 모형과 전략을 개선하였으며 두 번의 외적 타당화 과정을 거치며 현장 적용성 높은 모형과 전략을 완성하였다. 본 연구에서 개발한 모형은 탐색적 과학 데이터 분석 탐구모형(Exploratory Scientific Data Analysis Inquiry Model, 이하 ESDA 탐구모형)으로 학교의 상황에서 실행가능한 도구를 먼저 선택하고 데이터를 수집하며, 그 후 분석 과정에서 질문을 찾고, 이를 새로운 가설로 설정하여 또 다른 탐구를 진행하는 형태를 갖는다. 수업 전략은 최종 7가지 원리로 세분화 되었는데, 도구 탐색의 원리, 실생활 데이터 수집의 원리, 데이터 변형의 원리, 데이터 해석의 원리, 문제 구체화의 원리, 문제 해결의 원리, 표현과 공유의 원리이다. 각 원리는 탐구 모형과 연계되어 있으며, 교수 전략 뿐 아니라 탐구를 수행할 수 있는 환경 구성의 조건을 포함하고 있어 현장 적용성을 높이고자 하였다. 본 연구는 일반적인 대규모의 학생을 대상으로 양적 연구를 실시하지 못했다는 한계가 있으나 지식정보처리 역량을 과학탐구의 관점에서 접근하여 실제적 모형과 전략을 개발했다는 점에서 의의가 있다.

다분류 SVM을 이용한 DEA기반 벤처기업 효율성등급 예측모형 (The Prediction of DEA based Efficiency Rating for Venture Business Using Multi-class SVM)

  • 박지영;홍태호
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
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    • 제19권2호
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    • pp.139-155
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    • 2009
  • For the last few decades, many studies have tried to explore and unveil venture companies' success factors and unique features in order to identify the sources of such companies' competitive advantages over their rivals. Such venture companies have shown tendency to give high returns for investors generally making the best use of information technology. For this reason, many venture companies are keen on attracting avid investors' attention. Investors generally make their investment decisions by carefully examining the evaluation criteria of the alternatives. To them, credit rating information provided by international rating agencies, such as Standard and Poor's, Moody's and Fitch is crucial source as to such pivotal concerns as companies stability, growth, and risk status. But these types of information are generated only for the companies issuing corporate bonds, not venture companies. Therefore, this study proposes a method for evaluating venture businesses by presenting our recent empirical results using financial data of Korean venture companies listed on KOSDAQ in Korea exchange. In addition, this paper used multi-class SVM for the prediction of DEA-based efficiency rating for venture businesses, which was derived from our proposed method. Our approach sheds light on ways to locate efficient companies generating high level of profits. Above all, in determining effective ways to evaluate a venture firm's efficiency, it is important to understand the major contributing factors of such efficiency. Therefore, this paper is constructed on the basis of following two ideas to classify which companies are more efficient venture companies: i) making DEA based multi-class rating for sample companies and ii) developing multi-class SVM-based efficiency prediction model for classifying all companies. First, the Data Envelopment Analysis(DEA) is a non-parametric multiple input-output efficiency technique that measures the relative efficiency of decision making units(DMUs) using a linear programming based model. It is non-parametric because it requires no assumption on the shape or parameters of the underlying production function. DEA has been already widely applied for evaluating the relative efficiency of DMUs. Recently, a number of DEA based studies have evaluated the efficiency of various types of companies, such as internet companies and venture companies. It has been also applied to corporate credit ratings. In this study we utilized DEA for sorting venture companies by efficiency based ratings. The Support Vector Machine(SVM), on the other hand, is a popular technique for solving data classification problems. In this paper, we employed SVM to classify the efficiency ratings in IT venture companies according to the results of DEA. The SVM method was first developed by Vapnik (1995). As one of many machine learning techniques, SVM is based on a statistical theory. Thus far, the method has shown good performances especially in generalizing capacity in classification tasks, resulting in numerous applications in many areas of business, SVM is basically the algorithm that finds the maximum margin hyperplane, which is the maximum separation between classes. According to this method, support vectors are the closest to the maximum margin hyperplane. If it is impossible to classify, we can use the kernel function. In the case of nonlinear class boundaries, we can transform the inputs into a high-dimensional feature space, This is the original input space and is mapped into a high-dimensional dot-product space. Many studies applied SVM to the prediction of bankruptcy, the forecast a financial time series, and the problem of estimating credit rating, In this study we employed SVM for developing data mining-based efficiency prediction model. We used the Gaussian radial function as a kernel function of SVM. In multi-class SVM, we adopted one-against-one approach between binary classification method and two all-together methods, proposed by Weston and Watkins(1999) and Crammer and Singer(2000), respectively. In this research, we used corporate information of 154 companies listed on KOSDAQ market in Korea exchange. We obtained companies' financial information of 2005 from the KIS(Korea Information Service, Inc.). Using this data, we made multi-class rating with DEA efficiency and built multi-class prediction model based data mining. Among three manners of multi-classification, the hit ratio of the Weston and Watkins method is the best in the test data set. In multi classification problems as efficiency ratings of venture business, it is very useful for investors to know the class with errors, one class difference, when it is difficult to find out the accurate class in the actual market. So we presented accuracy results within 1-class errors, and the Weston and Watkins method showed 85.7% accuracy in our test samples. We conclude that the DEA based multi-class approach in venture business generates more information than the binary classification problem, notwithstanding its efficiency level. We believe this model can help investors in decision making as it provides a reliably tool to evaluate venture companies in the financial domain. For the future research, we perceive the need to enhance such areas as the variable selection process, the parameter selection of kernel function, the generalization, and the sample size of multi-class.