• Title/Summary/Keyword: root mean square error

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A Study on the Predictability of the Number of Days of Heat and Cold Damages by Growth Stages of Rice Using PNU CGCM-WRF Chain in South Korea (PNU CGCM-WRF Chain을 이용한 남한지역 벼의 생육단계별 고온해 및 저온해 발생일수에 대한 예측성 연구)

  • Kim, Young-Hyun;Choi, Myeong-Ju;Shim, Kyo-Moon;Hur, Jina;Jo, Sera;Ahn, Joong-Bae
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.31 no.5
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    • pp.577-592
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    • 2021
  • This study evaluates the predictability of the number of days of heat and cold damages by growth stages of rice in South Korea using the hindcast data (1986~2020) produced by Pusan National University Coupled General Circulation Model-Weather Research and Forecasting (PNU CGCM-WRF) model chain. The predictability is accessed in terms of Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Normalized Standardized Deviations (NSD), Hit Rate (HR) and Heidke Skill Score (HSS). For the purpose, the model predictability to produce the daily maximum and minimum temperatures, which are the variables used to define heat and cold damages for rice, are evaluated first. The result shows that most of the predictions starting the initial conditions from January to May (01RUN to 05RUN) have reasonable predictability, although it varies to some extent depending on the month at which integration starts. In particular, the ensemble average of 01RUN to 05RUN with equal weighting (ENS) has more reasonable predictability (RMSE is in the range of 1.2~2.6℃ and NSD is about 1.0) than individual RUNs. Accordingly, the regional patterns and characteristics of the predicted damages for rice due to excessive high- and low-temperatures are well captured by the model chain when compared with observation, particularly in regions where the damages occur frequently, in spite that hindcasted data somewhat overestimate the damages in terms of number of occurrence days. In ENS, the HR and HSS for heat (cold) damages in rice is in the ranges of 0.44~0.84 and 0.05~0.13 (0.58~0.81 and -0.01~0.10) by growth stage. Overall, it is concluded that the PNU CGCM-WRF chain of 01RUN~05RUN and ENS has reasonable capability to predict the heat and cold damages for rice in South Korea.

An Experimental Study on Assessing Precision and Accuracy of Low-cost UAV-based Photogrammetry (저가형 UAV 사진측량의 정밀도 및 정확도 분석 실험에 관한 연구)

  • Yun, Seonghyeon;Lee, Hungkyu;Choi, Woonggyu;Jeong, Woochul;Jo, Eonjeong
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Surveying, Geodesy, Photogrammetry and Cartography
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    • v.40 no.3
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    • pp.207-215
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    • 2022
  • This research has been focused on accessing precision and accuracy of UAV (Unmanned Aerial Vehicle)-derived 3-D surveying coordinates. To this end, a highly precise and accurate testing control network had been established by GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite Systems) campaign and its network adjustment. The coordinates of the ground control points and the check points were estimated within 1cm accuracy for 95% of the confidence level. FC330 camera mounted on DJI Phantom 4 repeatedly took aerial photos of an experimental area seven times, and then processed them by two widely used software packages. To evaluate the precision and accuracy of the aerial surveys, 3-D coordinates of the ten check points which automatically extracted by software were compared with GNSS solutions. For the 95% confidence level, the standard deviation of two software's result is within 1cm, 2cm, and 4cm for the north-south, east-west, and height direction, and RMSE (Root Mean Square Error) is within 9cm and 8cm for the horizontal, vertical component, respectively. The interest is that the standard deviation is much smaller than RMSE. The F-ratio test was performed to confirm the statistical difference between the two software processing results. For the standard deviation and RMSE of most positional components, exception of RMSE of the height, the null hypothesis of the one-tailed tests was rejected. It indicates that the result of UAV photogrammetry can be different statistically based on the processing software.

Quantitative precipitation estimation of X-band radar using empirical relationship (경험적 관계식을 이용한 X밴드 레이더의 정량적 강우 추정)

  • Song, Jae In;Lim, Sanghun;Cho, Yo Han;Jeong, Hyeon Gyo
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.55 no.9
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    • pp.679-686
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    • 2022
  • As the occurrences of flash floods have increased due to climate change, faster and more accurate precipitation observation using X-band radar has become important. Therefore, the Ministry of Environment installed two dual-pol X-band radars at Samcheok and Uljin. The radar data used in this study were obtained from two different elevation angles and composed to reduce the shielding effect. To obtain quantitative rainfall, quality control (QC), KDP retrieval, and Hybrid Surface Rainfall (HSR) methods were sequentially applied. To improve the accuracy of the quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) of the X-band radar, we retrieved parameters for the relationship between rainfall rate and specific differential phase, which is commonly called the R-KDP relationship; hence, an empirical approach was developed using multiple rain gauges for those two radars. The newly suggested relationship, R = 27.4K0.81DP, slightly increased the correlation coefficient by 1% more than the relationship suggested by the previous study. The root mean square error significantly decreased from 3.88 mm/hr to 3.68 mm/hr, and the bias of the estimated precipitation also decreased from -1.72 mm/hr to -0.92 mm/hr for overall cases, showing the improvement of the new method.

A Study on the Prediction of Disc Cutter Wear Using TBM Data and Machine Learning Algorithm (TBM 데이터와 머신러닝 기법을 이용한 디스크 커터마모 예측에 관한 연구)

  • Tae-Ho, Kang;Soon-Wook, Choi;Chulho, Lee;Soo-Ho, Chang
    • Tunnel and Underground Space
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    • v.32 no.6
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    • pp.502-517
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    • 2022
  • As the use of TBM increases, research has recently increased to to analyze TBM data with machine learning techniques to predict the exchange cycle of disc cutters, and predict the advance rate of TBM. In this study, a regression prediction of disc cutte wear of slurry shield TBM site was made by combining machine learning based on the machine data and the geotechnical data obtained during the excavation. The data were divided into 7:3 for training and testing the prediction of disc cutter wear, and the hyper-parameters are optimized by cross-validated grid-search over a parameter grid. As a result, gradient boosting based on the ensemble model showed good performance with a determination coefficient of 0.852 and a root-mean-square-error of 3.111 and especially excellent results in fit times along with learning performance. Based on the results, it is judged that the suitability of the prediction model using data including mechanical data and geotechnical information is high. In addition, research is needed to increase the diversity of ground conditions and the amount of disc cutter data.

Analysis of Plant Height, Crop Cover, and Biomass of Forage Maize Grown on Reclaimed Land Using Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Technology

  • Dongho, Lee;Seunghwan, Go;Jonghwa, Park
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.39 no.1
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    • pp.47-63
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    • 2023
  • Unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) and sensor technologies are rapidly developing and being usefully utilized for spatial information-based agricultural management and smart agriculture. Until now, there have been many difficulties in obtaining production information in a timely manner for large-scale agriculture on reclaimed land. However, smart agriculture that utilizes sensors, information technology, and UAV technology and can efficiently manage a large amount of farmland with a small number of people is expected to become more common in the near future. In this study, we evaluated the productivity of forage maize grown on reclaimed land using UAV and sensor-based technologies. This study compared the plant height, vegetation cover ratio, fresh biomass, and dry biomass of maize grown on general farmland and reclaimed land in South Korea. A biomass model was constructed based on plant height, cover ratio, and volume-based biomass using UAV-based images and Farm-Map, and related estimates were obtained. The fresh biomass was estimated with a very precise model (R2 =0.97, root mean square error [RMSE]=3.18 t/ha, normalized RMSE [nRMSE]=8.08%). The estimated dry biomass had a coefficient of determination of 0.86, an RMSE of 1.51 t/ha, and an nRMSE of 12.61%. The average plant height distribution for each field lot was about 0.91 m for reclaimed land and about 1.89 m for general farmland, which was analyzed to be a difference of about 48%. The average proportion of the maize fraction in each field lot was approximately 65% in reclaimed land and 94% in general farmland, showing a difference of about 29%. The average fresh biomass of each reclaimed land field lot was 10 t/ha, which was about 36% lower than that of general farmland (28.1 t/ha). The average dry biomass in each field lot was about 4.22 t/ha in reclaimed land and about 8 t/ha in general farmland, with the reclaimed land having approximately 53% of the dry biomass of the general farmland. Based on these results, UAV and sensor-based images confirmed that it is possible to accurately analyze agricultural information and crop growth conditions in a large area. It is expected that the technology and methods used in this study will be useful for implementing field-smart agriculture in large reclaimed areas.

Youtube Mukbang and Online Delivery Orders: Analysis of Impacts and Predictive Model (유튜브 먹방과 온라인 배달 주문: 영향력 분석과 예측 모형)

  • Choi, Sarah;Lee, Sang-Yong Tom
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.28 no.4
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    • pp.119-133
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    • 2022
  • One of the most important current features of food related industry is the growth of food delivery service. Another notable food related culture is, with the advent of Youtube, the popularity of Mukbang, which refers to content that records eating. Based on these background, this study intended to focus on two things. First, we tried to see the impact of Youtube Mukbang and the sentiments of Mukbang comments on the number of related food deliveries. Next, we tried to set up the predictive modeling of chicken delivery order with machine learning method. We used Youtube Mukbang comments data as well as weather related data as main independent variables. The dependent variable used in this study is the number of delivery order of fried chicken. The period of data used in this study is from June 3, 2015 to September 30, 2019, and a total of 1,580 data were used. For the predictive modeling, we used machine learning methods such as linear regression, ridge, lasso, random forest, and gradient boost. We found that the sentiment of Youtube Mukbang and comments have impacts on the number of delivery orders. The prediction model with Mukban data we set up in this study had better performances than the existing models without Mukbang data. We also tried to suggest managerial implications to the food delivery service industry.

Current Status and Future Plans for Surface Current Observation by HF Radar in the Southern Jeju (제주 남부 HF Radar 표층해류 관측 현황 및 향후계획)

  • Dawoon, Jung;Jae Yeob, Kim;Jae-il, Kwon;Kyu-Min, Song
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.34 no.6
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    • pp.198-210
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    • 2022
  • The southern strait of Jeju is a divergence point of the Tsushima Warm Current (TWC), and it is the starting point of the thermohaline circulation in the waters of the Korean Peninsula, affecting the size and frequency of marine disasters such as typhoons and tsunamis, and has a very important oceanographic impact, such as becoming a source of harmful organisms and radioactively contaminated water. Therefore, for an immediate response to these maritime disasters, real-time ocean observation is required. However, compared to other straits, in the case of southern Jeju, such wide area marine observations are insufficient. Therefore, in this study, surface current field of the southern strait of Jeju was calculated using High-Frequency radar (HF radar). the large surface current field is calculated, and post-processing and data improvement are carried out through APM (Antenna Pattern Measurement) and FOL (First Order Line), and comparative analysis is conducted using actual data. As a result, the correlation shows improvement of 0.4~0.7 and RMSE of about 1~19 cm/s. These high-frequency radar observation results will help solve domestic issues such as response to typhoons, verification of numerical models, utilization of wide area wave data, and ocean search and rescue in the future through the establishment of an open data network.

Estimation of the Reach-average Velocity of Mountain Streams Using Dye Tracing (염료추적자법을 이용한 산지하천의 구간 평균 유속 추정)

  • Tae-Hyun Kim;Jeman Lee;Chulwon Lee;Sangjun Im
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.112 no.3
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    • pp.374-381
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    • 2023
  • The travel time of flash floods along mountain streams is mainly governed by reach-average velocity, rather than by the point velocity of the locations of interest. Reach-average velocity is influenced by various factors such as stream geometry, streambed materials, and the hydraulic roughness of streams. In this study, the reach-average velocity in mountain streams was measured for storm periods using rhodamine dye tracing. The point cloud data obtained from a LiDAR survey was used to extract the average hydraulic roughness height, such as Ra, Rmax, and Rz. The size distribution of the streambed materials (D50, D84) was also considered in the estimation of the roughness height. The field experiments revealed that the reach-average velocities had a significant relationship with flow discharges (v = 0.5499Q0.6165 ), with an R2 value of 0.77. The root mean square error in the roughness height of the Ra-based estimation (0.45) was lower than those of the other estimations (0.47-1.04). Among the parameters for roughness height estimation, the Ra -based roughness height was the most reliable and suitable for developing the reach-average velocity equation for estimating the travel time of flood waves in mountain streams.

Prediction Method of Settlement Based on Field Monitoring Data for Soft Ground Under Preloading Improvement with Ramp Loading (점증 선행 하중으로 개량하는 연약지반의 계측기반 침하량 예측방법 개발)

  • Woo, Sang-Inn;Yune, Chan-Young;Baek, Seung-Kyung;Chung, Choong-Ki
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • v.24 no.10
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    • pp.83-91
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    • 2008
  • Previous settlement prediction methods based on settlement monitoring were developed under instantaneous loading condition and have restriction to be applied to soft ground under ramp loading condition. In this study, settlement prediction method under ramp loading was developed. New settlement prediction method under ramp loading considered influence factors of consolidation settlement such as thickness of clayed layer, quantity of surcharge load and preconsolidation pressure, etc. Geometrical correction method based on hyperbolic method (1991) and correction method based on probability theory were applied to increase accuracy of settlement prediction using field monitoring data after ramp loading. Large consolidation tests for ideally controlled one dimensional consolidation under ramp loading condition were performed and the settlement behavior was predicted based on the monitoring data. New prediction method yielded good result of entire settlement behavior by using data during an early stage of ramp load. Additionally, new prediction method offered better settlement prediction which had final settlement prediction in close proximity and low RMSE(Root Mean Square Error) than previous method such as hyperbolic method did.

A Graphical Method for Evaluation of Stages in Shrinkage Cracking Using S-shape Curve Model (S형 곡선 모델을 적용한 수축 균열 단계 평가)

  • Min, Tuk-Ki;Vo, Dai Nhat
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • v.24 no.9
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    • pp.41-48
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    • 2008
  • The aim of this study is to present a graphical method in order to evaluate stages in shrinkage cracking. Firstly, the distribution of crack openings is established by sorting the openings of individual cracks in the soil cracking system. Secondly, it is normalized in a range of 0 to 1 to obtain the normalized crack opening distribution. Thirdly, three S-shape curve models introduced by Brooks and Corey(1964), Fredlund and Xing(1994) and van Genuchten(1980) are chosen to fit the normalized crack opening distribution using a curve fitting method. The accuracy of fitting which is described through fitting parameters by the van Genuchten equation is much higher than that by the Brooks and Corey equation and slightly higher than that by the Fredlund and Xing equation; thus the van Genuchten model is used. Finally, the stages of shrinkage cracking are graphically evaluated by drawing three separate straight lines corresponding to three linear parts of the fitted normalized crack opening distribution. The proposed method is tested with different sample thicknesses. The measured data are fitted by the selected model with the fairly high regression coefficient and small root mean square error. The results show graphically that shrinkage cracking comprises three stages; namely, primary, secondary and residual stages. Subsequently, the ranges of evaluated crack opening for each of these stages are presented.