• ETRI Journal
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• 제45권4호
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• pp.636-649
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• 2023

Renewable energy generation cannot be consistently predicted or controlled. Therefore, it is currently not widely used in the electricity market, which requires dependable production. In this study, reliability- and variance-based controls of energy storage strategies are proposed to utilize renewable energy as a steady contributor to the electricity market. For reliability-based control, photovoltaic (PV) generation is assumed to be registered in the power generation plan. PV generation yields a reliable output using energy storage units to compensate for PV prediction errors. We also propose a runtime state-ofcharge management method for sustainable operations. With variance-based controls, changes in rapid power generation are limited through ramp rate control. This study introduces new reliability and variance indices as indicators for evaluating these strategies. The reliability index quantifies the degree to which the actual generation realizes the plan, and the variance index quantifies the degree of power change. The two strategies are verified based on simulations and experiments. The reliability index improved by 3.1 times on average over 21 days at a real power plant.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• 제16권6호
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• pp.643-654
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• 2003

Two real-time modeling prediction (RMP) schemes are presented in this paper for analyzing the behavior of deep excavations during construction. The first RMP scheme is developed from the traditional AR(p) model. The second is based on the simplified Elman-style recurrent neural networks. An on-line learning algorithm is introduced to describe the dynamic behavior of deep excavations. As a case study, in-situ measurements of an excavation were recorded and the measured data were used to verify the reliability of the two schemes. They proved to be both effective and convenient for predicting the behavior of deep excavations during construction. It is shown through the case study that the RMP scheme based on the neural network is more accurate than that based on the traditional AR(p) model.

• 전자공학회논문지SC
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• 제43권5호
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• pp.60-67
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• 2006

우주 비행체 전자장비의 신뢰도를 예측하고 최적화하기 위해 탑재장치 내 부품의 온도 예측이 필수적으로 요구된다. 본 논문에서는 전자장비 부품의 온도 예측방법에 관해 기술하고 있다. 본 예측 방법은 PCB 기판의 열전도도를 등방성모델로 설정하여 등가 열전도도를 계산하고 열력 모델을 이용하여 열 저항 행렬을 생성하였으며, 중첩의 원리를 이용하여 각 부품들의 온도를 예측하였다. 또한 본 논문의 온도 예측방법을 이용하여 전장품 소자의 열해석 결과와 상용 프로그램을 이용한 온도 계산 결과를 비교 분석하였다.

• 전기학회논문지P
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• 제58권4호
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• pp.483-489
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• 2009

Electrolytic capacitors are used in variety of equipments as smoothening element of the power converters because it has high capacitance for its size and low price. Electrolytic capacitors, which is most of the time affected by aging effect, plays a very important role for the power electronics system quality and reliability. Therefore it is important to estimate the parameter of an electrolytic capacitor to predict the failure. This objective of this paper is to propose a new method to detect the rise of equivalent series resistor(ESR) in order to realize the online failure prediction of electrolytic capacitor for DC output filter of power converter. The ESR of electrolytic capacitor estimated from RMS result of filtered waveform(BPF) of the ripple capacitor voltage/current. Therefore, the preposed online failure prediction method has the merits of easy ESR computation and circuit simplicity. Simulation and experimental results are shown to verify the performance of the proposed on-line method.

• 한국콘크리트학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국콘크리트학회 2006년도 춘계 학술발표회 논문집(II)
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• pp.621-624
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• 2006

This paper presents a novel optimum technique for optimum mix-proportion using database-based prediction model of material properties for an object function or a constraint condition. The proposed technique provides high reliability of results introducing effective region model, which assesses whether the prediction model is effective or not, in optimization process. In order to validate the proposed technique, a genetic algorithm was adopted as a optimum technique, and an artificial neural network was adopted as a prediction model for material properties and as a model for assessing effective region. The mix-proportion obtained from the proposed technique is more reasonable than that obtained from a general optimum technique.

• 한국건축시공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국건축시공학회 2014년도 춘계 학술논문 발표대회
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• pp.162-163
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• 2014

Operation and maintenance stage consists the largest portion of project life cycle cost. Appropriate management and analysis of such stages have massive effect on the total project cost. The effective prediction of optimized repair period is one of main factors in ㅌ management. However, it has been analyzed that the prediction of appropriate repair period revealed limitations in reliability. Therefore, this study suggests a methodology of repair period prediction by dividing finished projects into similar groups with same properties to be compared with the target project using quantitative variables.

• 대한화학회지
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• 제58권6호
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• pp.543-552
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• 2014

A quantitative structure activity relationship (QSAR) study is performed for modeling and prediction of oral bioavailabilities of 216 diverse set of drugs. After calculation and screening of molecular descriptors, linear and nonlinear models were developed by using multiple linear regression (MLR), artificial neural network (ANN), support vector machine (SVM) and random forest (RF) techniques. Comparison between statistical parameters of these models indicates the suitability of SVM over other models. The root mean square errors of SVM model were 5.933 and 4.934 for training and test sets, respectively. Robustness and reliability of the developed SVM model was evaluated by performing of leave many out cross validation test, which produces the statistic of $Q^2_{SVM}=0.603$ and SPRESS = 7.902. Moreover, the chemical applicability domains of model were determined via leverage approach. The results of this study revealed the applicability of QSAR approach by using SVM in prediction of oral bioavailability of drugs.

• 한국철도학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국철도학회 2009년도 춘계학술대회 논문집
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• pp.1010-1015
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• 2009

Rail-pad is an important and readily replaceable component of a railway track, as it is the elastic layer between the rail and the sleeper. Characteristics and useful lifetime prediction of rail-pad was very important in design procedure to assure the safety and reliability. In order to investigate the useful lifetime, the accelerate test were carried out. Accelerated test results changes as the threshold are used for assessment of the useful life and time to threshold value were plotted against reciprocal of absolute temperature to give the Arrhenius plot. By using the acceleration test, several useful lifetime prediction for rail-pads were proposed.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제44권6호
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• pp.663-672
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• 2012

As software based digital I&C (Instrumentation and Control) systems are used more prevalently in nuclear plants, enhancement of software dependability has become an important issue in the area of nuclear I&C systems. Critical attributes of software dependability are safety and reliability. These attributes are tightly related to software failures caused by faults. Software testing and V&V (Verification and Validation) activities are hence important for enhancing software dependability. If the risky modules of safety-critical software can be predicted, it will be possible to focus on testing and V&V activities more efficiently and effectively. It should also make it possible to better allocate resources for regulation activities. We propose a prediction technique to estimate risky software modules by adopting machine learning models based on software complexity metrics. An empirical study with various machine learning algorithms was executed for comparing the prediction performance. Experimental results show SVMs (Support Vector Machines) perform as well or better than the other methods.

• 마이크로전자및패키징학회지
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• 제20권3호
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• pp.7-10
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• 2013

This study presents an approach to predict insulation resistance failure of multilayer ceramic capacitors (MLCCs) using non-linear modeling. A capacitance aging model created by non-linear modeling allowed for the prediction of insulation resistance failure. The MLCC data tested under temperature-humidity-bias testing conditions showed that a change in capacitance, when measured against a capacitance aging model, was able to provide a prediction of insulation resistance failure.