• Title/Summary/Keyword: reliability estimation

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Reliability Estimation Using Kriging Metamodel (크리깅 메타모델을 이용한 신뢰도 계산)

  • Cho Tae-Min;Ju Byeong-Hyeon;Jung Do-Hyun;Lee Byung-Chai
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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    • v.30 no.8 s.251
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    • pp.941-948
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    • 2006
  • In this study, the new method for reliability estimation is proposed using kriging metamodel. Kriging metamodel can be determined by appropriate sampling range and sampling numbers because there are no random errors in the Design and Analysis of Computer Experiments(DACE) model. The first kriging metamodel is made based on widely ranged sampling points. The Advanced First Order Reliability Method(AFORM) is applied to the first kriging metamodel to estimate the reliability approximately. Then, the second kriging metamodel is constructed using additional sampling points with updated sampling range. The Monte-Carlo Simulation(MCS) is applied to the second kriging metamodel to evaluate the reliability. The proposed method is applied to numerical examples and the results are almost equal to the reference reliability.

Using R Software for Reliability Data Analysis

  • Shaffer, Leslie B.;Young, Timothy M.;Guess, Frank M.;Bensmail, Halima;Leon, Ramon V.
    • International Journal of Reliability and Applications
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.53-70
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    • 2008
  • In this paper, we discuss the plethora of uses for the software package R, and focus specifically on its helpful applications in reliability data analyses. Examples are presented; including the R coding protocol, R code, and plots for various statistical as well as reliability analyses. We explore Kaplan-Meier estimates and maximum likelihood estimation for distributions including the Weibull. Finally, we discuss future applications of R, and usages of quantile regression in reliability.

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Bayesian Reliability Estimation for Small Sample-Sized One-shot Devices (작은 샘플 크기의 One-shot Devices를 위한 베이지안 신뢰도 추정)

  • Mun, Byeong Min;Sun, Eun Joo;Bae, Suk Joo
    • Journal of Applied Reliability
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    • v.13 no.2
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    • pp.99-107
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    • 2013
  • One-shot device is required to successfully perform its function only once at the moment of use. The reliability of a one-shot device should be expressed as a probability of success. In this paper, we propose a bayesian approach for estimating reliability of one-shot devices with small sample size. We employ a gamma prior to obtain the posterior distribution. Finally, we compare the accuracy of the proposed method with general maximum likelihood method.

Overview of Reliability Rank Measures for Small Sample (소표본인 경우 신뢰성 순위 척도의 고찰)

  • Choi, Sung-Woon
    • Journal of the Korea Safety Management & Science
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    • v.9 no.2
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    • pp.161-169
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    • 2007
  • This paper presents three methods for expression of reliability measures for large and small data. First method is to express parametric estimation of cardinal reliability measure data for large sample, which requires numerous sample. Second is to obtain nonparametric distribution classification of ordinal reliability measure data for small sample. However it is difficult for field user to understand this method. Last method is to acquire parametric estimation of ordinal reliability measure data for small data. Because this method requires small sample and is comprehensive, we recommend this one among the proposed methods. Various reliability rank measures are presented.

Reliability Estimation Using Two-Staged Kriging Metamodel and Genetic Algorithm (2단 크리깅 메타모델과 유전자 알고리즘을 이용한 신뢰도 계산)

  • Cho, Tae-Min;Ju, Byeong-Hyeon;Jung, Do-Hyun;Lee, Byung-Chai
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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    • v.30 no.9 s.252
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    • pp.1116-1123
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    • 2006
  • In this study, the effective method for reliability estimation is proposed using tow-staged kriging metamodel and genetic algorithm. Kriging metamodel can be determined by appropriate sampling range and the number of sampling points. The first kriging metamodel is made based on the proposed sampling points. The advanced f'=rst order reliability method is applied to the first kriging metamodel to determine the reliability and most probable failure point(MPFP) approximately. Then, the second kriging metamodel is constructed using additional sampling points near the MPFP. These points are selected using genetic algorithm that have the maximum mean squared error. The Monte-Carlo simulation is applied to the second kriging metamodel to estimate the reliability. The proposed method is applied to numerical examples and the results are almost equal to the reference reliability.

A Comparison of the Reliability Estimation Accuracy between Bayesian Methods and Classical Methods Based on Weibull Distribution (와이블분포 하에서 베이지안 기법과 전통적 기법 간의 신뢰도 추정 정확도 비교)

  • Cho, HyungJun;Lim, JunHyoung;Kim, YongSoo
    • Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers
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    • v.42 no.4
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    • pp.256-262
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    • 2016
  • The Weibull is widely used in reliability analysis, and several studies have attempted to improve estimation of the distribution's parameters. least squares estimation (LSE) or Maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) are often used to estimate distribution parameters. However, it has been proven that Bayesian methods are more suitable for small sample sizes than LSE and MLE. In this work, the Weibull parameter estimation accuracy of LSE, MLE, and Bayesian method are compared for sample sets with 3 to 30 data points. The Bayesian method was most accurate for sample sizes under 25, and the accuracy of the Bayesian method was similar to LSE and MLE as the sample size increased.

Performance estimation for Software Reliability Growth Model that Use Plot of Failure Data (고장 데이터의 플롯을 이용한 소프트웨어 신뢰도 성장 모델의 성능평가)

  • Jung, Hye-Jung;Yang, Hae-Sool;Park, In-Soo
    • The KIPS Transactions:PartD
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    • v.10D no.5
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    • pp.829-836
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    • 2003
  • Software Reliability Growth Model that have been studied variously. But measurement of correct parameter of this model is not easy. Specially, estimation of correct model about failure data must be establish and estimation of parameter can consist exactly. To get correct testing, we calculate the normal score and describe the normal probability plot. Use the normal probability plot, we estimate the distribution for failure data. In this paper, we estimate the software reliability growth model for through the normal probability plot. In this research, we applies software reliability growth model through distribution characteristics of failure data. If we see plot, we determine the software reliability growth model, we can make sure superior in model's performance estimation.

On Estimating the Hazard Rate for Samples from Weighted Distributions

  • Ahmad, Ibrahim A.
    • International Journal of Reliability and Applications
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    • v.1 no.2
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    • pp.133-143
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    • 2000
  • Data from weighted distributions appear, among other situations, when some of the data are missing or are damaged, a case that is important in reliability and life testing. The kernel method for hazard rate estimation is discussed for these data where the basic large sample properties are given. As a by product, the basic properties of the kernel estimate of the distribution function for data from weighted distribution are presented.

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An Estimation of Disassembly and Assembly in Gear Systems with Considering of Reliability Life (기어장치의 수뢰수명을 고려한 분해 및 조립용이성 평가)

  • 진정선
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Machine Tool Engineers Conference
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    • 1998.10a
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    • pp.210-215
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    • 1998
  • In this paper, systemaic approach is studied about assembility and disassemblility of parts of the gear system in order to reduce the assembly cost, and to disassemble products easily which is possible to recycle the parts. That is, an estimation of disassembly and assembly with considering of reliability life. In this study, we use symbolic chart method for an economic model for optimal disassembly and assembly.

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