• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.9 no.7
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• pp.1-15
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• 2022

Combining the strength of both Mixed Data Sampling (MIDAS) Regression and realized variance measures, this paper seeks to investigate two objectives: (1) evaluate the post-sample performance of the proposed weekly Realized Variance-MIDAS (RVar-MIDAS) in one-week ahead volatility forecasting against the established Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model and the less explored but robust STES (Smooth Transition Exponential Smoothing) methods. (2) comparing forecast error performance between realized variance and squared residuals measures as a proxy for actual volatility. Data of seven private equity mutual fund indices (generated from 57 individual funds) from two different time periods (with and without financial crisis) are applied to 21 models. Robustness of the post-sample volatility forecasting of all models is validated by the Model Confidence Set (MCS) Procedures and revealed: (1) The weekly RVar-MIDAS model emerged as the best model, outperformed the robust DAILY-STES methods, and the weekly DAILY-GARCH models, particularly during a volatile period. (2) models with realized variance measured in estimation and as a proxy for actual volatility outperformed those using squared residual. This study contributes an empirical approach to one-week ahead volatility forecasting of mutual funds return, which is less explored in past literature on financial volatility forecasting compared to stocks volatility.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.23 no.5
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• pp.411-421
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• 2016

Large frequency limiting distributions of two errors in realized covariance are investigated under noisy and non-synchronous high frequency sampling situations. The first distribution characterizes increased variance of the realized covariance due to noise for large frequency and the second distribution characterizes decreased variance of the realized covariance due to discretization for large frequency. The distribution of the combined error enables us to determine the sampling frequency which depends on a nuisance parameter. A consistent estimator of the nuisance parameter is proposed.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.25 no.1
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• pp.15-27
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• 2012

We have studied the realized variance(RV) of intra-day returns and market microstructure noise based on high-frequency stock transaction data for the four largest companies in terms of market capitalization in the KOSPI. First, non-negligible biases are observed for the RV and for the bias-corrected realized variance($RV_{AC_1}$) which is constructed by adjusting RV for the first order autocorrelation in intra-day returns. Bias is more obvious for the RV and the $RV_{AC_1}$ when intra-day returns are sampled more frequently than every 2 minutes. Transaction Time Sampling(TTS) is shown to be better than Calendar Time Sampling(CTS) in terms of biases of the RV and the $RV_{AC_1}$ for the 4 companies. The analysis reveals that market microstructure noise is temporally dependent. Second, by using the Noise-to-Signal Ratio(NSR), we estimate sampling frequencies that are optimal in terms of the Mean Square Errors(MSE) of the RV and the $RV_{AC_1}$. The optimal sampling frequencies are around 200 for RV and is around 5000 for the $RV_{AC_1}$ for all the four stock prices. For the 6 hour transaction period of the Korean stock trading, these correspond to about 2 minutes and 6 seconds.

• Management Science and Financial Engineering
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• v.19 no.1
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• pp.49-52
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• 2013

In this paper we provide a valuation formula for a variance swap with regime switching. A variance swap is a forward contract on variance, the square of realized volatility of the underlying asset. We assume that the volatility of underlying asset is governed by Markov regime-switching process with finite states. We find that the proposed model can provide ease of calculation and be superior to the models currently available.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.51 no.4
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• pp.954-962
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• 2019

It is well known that the variance of tally is biased in a Monte Carlo calculation based on the power iteration method. Several studies have been conducted to estimate the real variance. Among them, the batch method, which was proposed by Gelbard and Prael, has been utilized actively in many Monte Carlo codes because the method is straightforward, and it is easy to implement the method in the codes. However, there is a problem when utilizing the batch method because the estimated variance varies depending on batch size. Often, the appropriate batch size is not realized before the completion of several Monte Carlo calculations. This study recognizes this shortcoming and addresses it by permitting selection of an appropriate batch size.

• Journal of the Korean Mathematical Society
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• v.57 no.5
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• pp.1167-1186
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• 2020

This paper considers the case of pricing discretely-sampled variance swaps under the class of equity-interest rate hybridization. Our modeling framework consists of the equity which follows the dynamics of the Heston stochastic volatility model, and the stochastic interest rate is driven by the Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR) process with full correlation structure imposed among the state variables. This full correlation structure possesses the limitation to have fully analytical pricing formula for hybrid models of variance swaps, due to the non-affinity property embedded in the model itself. We address this issue by obtaining an efficient semi-closed form pricing formula of variance swaps for an approximation of the hybrid model via the derivation of characteristic functions. Subsequently, we implement numerical experiments to evaluate the accuracy of our pricing formula. Our findings confirm that the impact of the correlation between the underlying and the interest rate is significant for pricing discretely-sampled variance swaps.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.23 no.2
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• pp.163-177
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• 2016

We consider a jump diffusion process for high-frequency financial asset data. We apply the stationary bootstrapping to construct a bootstrap test for jumps. First-order asymptotic validity is established for the stationary bootstrapping of the jump ratio test under the null hypothesis of no jump. Consistency of the stationary bootstrap test is proved under the alternative of jumps. A Monte-Carlo experiment shows the advantage of a stationary bootstrapping test over the test based on the normal asymptotic theory. The proposed bootstrap test is applied to construct continuous-jump decomposition of the daily realized variance of the KOSPI for the year 2008 of the world-wide financial crisis.

• 제어로봇시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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• 1986.10a
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• pp.73-77
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• 1986

Optimal input design problem for linear regression model with constrained output variance has been considered. It is shown that the optimal input signal for the linear regression model can also be realized as an ARMA process. Monte-Carlo simulation results show that the optimal stochastic input leads to comparatively better estimation accuracy than white input signal.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.30 no.2
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• pp.163-178
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• 2023

GARCH-X(1, 1) model specifies that conditional variance follows an AR(1) process and includes a past exogenous variable. This study proposes a new class from that model by allowing a more general (non-linear) variance function to follow an AR(1) process. The functions applied to the variance equation include exponential, Tukey's ladder, and Yeo-Johnson transformations. In the framework of normal and student-t distributions for return errors, the empirical analysis focuses on two stock indices data in developed countries (FTSE100 and SP500) over the daily period from January 2000 to December 2020. This study uses 10-minute realized volatility as the exogenous component. The parameters of considered models are estimated using the adaptive random walk metropolis method in the Monte Carlo Markov chain algorithm and implemented in the Matlab program. The 95% highest posterior density intervals show that the three transformations are significant for the GARCHX(1, 1) model. In general, based on the Akaike information criterion, the GARCH-X(1, 1) model that has return errors with student-t distribution and variance transformed by Tukey's ladder function provides the best data fit. In forecasting value-at-risk with the 95% confidence level, the Christoffersen's independence test suggest that non-linear models is the most suitable for modeling return data, especially model with the Tukey's ladder transformation.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.24 no.4
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• pp.367-382
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• 2017

We consider an infinite-order long-memory heterogeneous autoregressive (HAR) model, which is motivated by a long-memory property of realized volatilities (RVs), as an extension of the finite order HAR-RV model. We develop bootstrap tests for structural mean or variance changes in the infinite-order HAR model via stationary bootstrapping. A functional central limit theorem is proved for stationary bootstrap sample, which enables us to develop stationary bootstrap cumulative sum (CUSUM) tests: a bootstrap test for mean break and a bootstrap test for variance break. Consistencies of the bootstrap null distributions of the CUSUM tests are proved. Consistencies of the bootstrap CUSUM tests are also proved under alternative hypotheses of mean or variance changes. A Monte-Carlo simulation shows that stationary bootstrapping improves the sizes of existing tests.