• Title/Summary/Keyword: probability function

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A Study of Probability Functions of Best Fit to Distribution of Annual Runoff -on the Nakdong River Basin- (년유출량의 적정확률 분포형에 관한 연구 -낙동강 유역을 중심으로-)

  • 조규상;이순탁
    • Water for future
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    • v.7 no.2
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    • pp.107-111
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    • 1974
  • Annual runoff in the Nakdong river basin has been analyzed to find the probability functions of best fit to distribution of historical annual runoff. The results obtained are as follows; (1) Log-normal 3-parameter disrtibution is believed as the probability function of best fit to historical distribution (2) Log-normal 3-parameter disrtibution is believed as the best fit probability function among Log-normal dist-ributions. (3) In the test of goodness of fit, $x^2-test$ shows that probability of $x^2-valus$ in Log-normal 3-parameter distribution is nearly more than 90%. But in the Simirnov-Kolmogorov test, hypotheses for the probability distributions cannot be rejected at significance level 5% & 1%. (4) Among 7 gauging stations, Dongchon & Koryung-Bridge's records show lower fitness to the theoretical probability functions than other 5 gauging station's

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Establishing Probability-Based Warrants for Right-Turn Lanes at Unsignalized Intersections (확률기반 비신호교차로의 우회전 전용차로 설치 기준 정립)

  • Moon, Jaepil
    • International Journal of Highway Engineering
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    • v.19 no.6
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    • pp.183-190
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    • 2017
  • PURPOSES : The objective of this study is to establish the traffic volume-based warrants of right-turn lanes at unsignalized intersections and to introduce a risk probability methodology based on the warrants. METHODS : In this study, a risk probability of a potential rear-end collision is applied between a right-turn vehicle and the immediately following through vehicle. Using the shifted negative exponential model and the compound probability theorem, the risk probability can be expressed as the function of directional volumes and the percentage of right-turns for a two-lane and four-lane highway, respectively. RESULTS : Based on the risk probablity, guidelines for installing right-turn lanes on two-lane and four-lane highways were developed. The risk probability also showed rationality by comparing with right-turn same-direction conflicts observed in-situ. CONCLUSIONS : The results of our study define the total approaching volumes to encourage a right-turn lane as a function of operating speed, percentage of right-turn, and number of lanes.

Evaluation of RVE Suitability Based on Exponential Curve Fitting of a Probability Distribution Function (확률 분포 함수의 지수 곡선 접합을 이용한 RVE 적합성 평가)

  • Chung, Sang-Yeop;Yun, Tae Sup;Han, Tong-Seok
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.30 no.5A
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    • pp.425-431
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    • 2010
  • The phase distribution in a multi-phase material strongly affects its material properties. Therefore, a proper method to describe the phase distribution of a material is needed. In this research, probability distribution functions, two-point correlation and lineal-path functions, are used to represent the probabilistic phase distributions of a material. The probability distribution function is calculated using a numerical method and is described as an analytical form via exponential curve fitting with three parameters. Application of analytical form of probability distribution function is investigated using two-phase polycrystalline solids and soil samples. It is confirmed that the probability distribution functions can be represented as an exponential form using curve fitting which helps identifying the applicability of a representative volume element(RVE).

Multicut high dimensional model representation for reliability analysis

  • Chowdhury, Rajib;Rao, B.N.
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • v.38 no.5
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    • pp.651-674
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    • 2011
  • This paper presents a novel method for predicting the failure probability of structural or mechanical systems subjected to random loads and material properties involving multiple design points. The method involves Multicut High Dimensional Model Representation (Multicut-HDMR) technique in conjunction with moving least squares to approximate the original implicit limit state/performance function with an explicit function. Depending on the order chosen sometimes truncated Cut-HDMR expansion is unable to approximate the original implicit limit state/performance function when multiple design points exist on the limit state/performance function or when the problem domain is large. Multicut-HDMR addresses this problem by using multiple reference points to improve accuracy of the approximate limit state/performance function. Numerical examples show the accuracy and efficiency of the proposed approach in estimating the failure probability.

On the Comparison of Particle Swarm Optimization Algorithm Performance using Beta Probability Distribution (베타 확률분포를 이용한 입자 떼 최적화 알고리즘의 성능 비교)

  • Lee, ByungSeok;Lee, Joon Hwa;Heo, Moon-Beom
    • Journal of Institute of Control, Robotics and Systems
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    • v.20 no.8
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    • pp.854-867
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    • 2014
  • This paper deals with the performance comparison of a PSO algorithm inspired in the process of simulating the behavior pattern of the organisms. The PSO algorithm finds the optimal solution (fitness value) of the objective function based on a stochastic process. Generally, the stochastic process, a random function, is used with the expression related to the velocity included in the PSO algorithm. In this case, the random function of the normal distribution (Gaussian) or uniform distribution are mainly used as the random function in a PSO algorithm. However, in this paper, because the probability distribution which is various with 2 shape parameters can be expressed, the performance comparison of a PSO algorithm using the beta probability distribution function, that is a random function which has a high degree of freedom, is introduced. For performance comparison, 3 functions (Rastrigin, Rosenbrock, Schwefel) were selected among the benchmark Set. And the convergence property was compared and analyzed using PSO-FIW to find the optimal solution.

Stochastic analysis of external and parametric dynamical systems under sub-Gaussian Levy white-noise

  • Di Paola, Mario;Pirrotta, Antonina;Zingales, Massimiliano
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • v.28 no.4
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    • pp.373-386
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    • 2008
  • In this study stochastic analysis of non-linear dynamical systems under ${\alpha}$-stable, multiplicative white noise has been conducted. The analysis has dealt with a special class of ${\alpha}$-stable stochastic processes namely sub-Gaussian white noises. In this setting the governing equation either of the probability density function or of the characteristic function of the dynamical response may be obtained considering the dynamical system forced by a Gaussian white noise with an uncertain factor with ${\alpha}/2$- stable distribution. This consideration yields the probability density function or the characteristic function of the response by means of a simple integral involving the probability density function of the system under Gaussian white noise and the probability density function of the ${\alpha}/2$-stable random parameter. Some numerical applications have been reported assessing the reliability of the proposed formulation. Moreover a proper way to perform digital simulation of the sub-Gaussian ${\alpha}$-stable random process preventing dynamical systems from numerical overflows has been reported and discussed in detail.

Function Embedding and Projective Measurement of Quantum Gate by Probability Amplitude Switch (확률진폭 스위치에 의한 양자게이트의 함수 임베딩과 투사측정)

  • Park, Dong-Young
    • The Journal of the Korea institute of electronic communication sciences
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    • v.12 no.6
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    • pp.1027-1034
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    • 2017
  • In this paper, we propose a new function embedding method that can measure mathematical projections of probability amplitude, probability, average expectation and matrix elements of stationary-state unit matrix at all control operation points of quantum gates. The function embedding method in this paper is to embed orthogonal normalization condition of probability amplitude for each control operating point into a binary scalar operator by using Dirac symbol and Kronecker delta symbol. Such a function embedding method is a very effective means of controlling the arithmetic power function of a unitary gate in a unitary transformation which expresses a quantum gate function as a tensor product of a single quantum. We present the results of evolutionary operation and projective measurement when we apply the proposed function embedding method to the ternary 2-qutrit cNOT gate and compare it with the existing methods.

The Prediction of Failure Probability of Bridges using Monte Carlo Simulation and Lifetime Functions (몬테칼로법과 생애함수를 이용한 교량의 파괴확률예측)

  • Seung-Ie Yang
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.116-122
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    • 2003
  • Monte Carlo method is one of the powerful engineering tools especially to solve the complex non-linear problems. The Monte Carlo method gives approximate solution to a variety of mathematical problems by performing statistical sampling experiments on a computer. One of the methods to predict the time dependent failure probability of one of the bridge components or the bridge system is a lifetime function. In this paper, FORTRAN program is developed to predict the failure probability of bridge components or bridge system by using both system reliability and lifetime function. Monte Carlo method is used to generate the parameters of the lifetime function. As a case study, the program is applied to the concrete-steel bridge to predict the failure probability.

Improvement of Analytical Probabilistic Model for Urban Storm Water Simulation using 3-parameter Mixed Exponential Probability Density Function (3변수 혼합 지수 확률밀도함수를 이용한 도시지역 강우유출수의 해석적 확률모형 개선)

  • Choi, Daegyu;Jo, Deok Jun;Han, Suhee;Kim, Sangdan
    • Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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    • v.24 no.3
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    • pp.345-353
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    • 2008
  • In order to design storage-based non-point source management facilities, the aspect of statistical features of the entire precipitation time series should be considered since non-point source pollutions are delivered by continuous rainfall runoffs. The 3-parameter mixed exponential probability density function instead of traditional single-parameter exponential probability density function is applied to represent the probabilistic features of long-term precipitation time series and model urban stormwater runoff. Finally, probability density functions of water quality control basin overflow are derived under two extreme intial conditions. The 31-year continuous precipitation time series recorded in Busan are analyzed to show that the 3-parameter mixed exponential probability density function gives better resolution.

Phase Doppler Measurements and Probability Density Functions in Liquid Fuel Spray (연료분무의 위상도플러 측정과 확률밀도함수의 도출)

  • 구자예
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.1039-1049
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    • 1994
  • The intermitternt and transient fuel spray have been investigated from the simultaneous measurement of droplet sizes and velocities by using Phase/Doppler Particle Analyzer(PDPA). Measurement have been done on the spray axis and at the edge of the spray near nozzle at various gas-to-liquid density ratios(.rho./sub g//.rho./sub l/) that ranges from those found in free atmospheric jets to conditions typical of diesel engines. Probability density distributions of the droplet size and velocity were obtained from raw data and mathematical probability density functions which can fit the experimental distribations were extracted using the principle of maximum likelihood. In the near nozzle region on the spray axis, droplet sizes ranged from the lower limit of the measurement system to the order of nozzle diameter for all (.rho./sub g/ /.rho./sub l/) and droplet sizes tended to be small on the spray edge. At the edge of spray, average droplet velocity peaked during needle opening and needle closing. The rms intensity is greatly incresed as the radial distance from the nozzle is increased. The probability density function which can best fit the physical breakage process such as breakup of fuel drops is exponecially decreasing log-hypebolic function with 4 parameters.