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The Prediction of Failure Probability of Bridges using Monte Carlo Simulation and Lifetime Functions  

Seung-Ie Yang (Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Colorado)
Publication Information
Journal of the Korean Society of Safety / v.18, no.1, 2003 , pp. 116-122 More about this Journal
Abstract
Monte Carlo method is one of the powerful engineering tools especially to solve the complex non-linear problems. The Monte Carlo method gives approximate solution to a variety of mathematical problems by performing statistical sampling experiments on a computer. One of the methods to predict the time dependent failure probability of one of the bridge components or the bridge system is a lifetime function. In this paper, FORTRAN program is developed to predict the failure probability of bridge components or bridge system by using both system reliability and lifetime function. Monte Carlo method is used to generate the parameters of the lifetime function. As a case study, the program is applied to the concrete-steel bridge to predict the failure probability.
Keywords
bridges; monte carlo method; system reliability; lifetime function; failure probability;
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  • Reference
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