• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.17 no.1
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• pp.55-66
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• 2010

Propensity score adjustment(PSA) has been suggested as approach to adjustment for volunteer internet survey. PSA attempts to decrease the biases arising from noncoverage and nonprobability sampling in volunteer panel internet surveys. Although PSA is an appealing method, its application for internet survey regarding Korea presidential election and its effectiveness is not well investigated. In this study, we compare the Ni Korea internet survey with the telephone survey conducted by MBMR and KBS for 2007 Korean presidential election. The result of study show that the accuracy of internet survey can be improved by using PSA. And it is critical to include covariates that highly related to the voting tendency and the role of nondemographic variables seems important to improving PSA for Korea presidential election prediction.

• Survey Research
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• v.4 no.2
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• pp.87-102
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• 2003

Till now, much progress has been made in election forecasting. But fixed-line telephone survey has limitations, because it has become more and more difficult to get a representative sample, Exit poll has been considered to provide a new solution. From the beginning, exit poll provided more accurate predictions than those based on surveys using fixed-line phone. In 2002 presidential election, prediction based on exit poll was perfect. Its predictive error was zero. This paper describes how the exit poll was done in 2002 presidential elections. Specifically, we are to show the estimating procedures as well as sampling and polling process. Among many factors, sampling procedure has been fond to be the most important factor in exit poll accuracy.

• Asian Journal for Public Opinion Research
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• v.7 no.1
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• pp.23-39
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• 2019

Assuming that a political party has a strong incentive to gain votes via issue setting as part of its campaign strategy, this study utilized a Web experimental survey to explore the extent to which three issue-related campaign advertising strategies - namely, issue ownership, issue convergence, and issue trespassing - affected voters' perceptions toward parties' issue-handling capabilities. Our empirical results show that issue ownership perceptions exist in Taiwan. In the 2012 Taiwan presidential election, as issue ownership advertisements may reinforce voters' beliefs regarding parties' issue-handling capabilities, issue trespassing advertising may improve a party's image on the disadvantageous issue dimension. At least our data shows that the Kuomintang's (KMT) advertisements have both effects.

• Journal of the Korea Convergence Society
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• v.8 no.6
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• pp.199-207
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• 2017

This study would analyze the visual expression elements, including layout, color, picture and typography in the election posters with the five main candidates of the 19th Presidential Election as the targets of the analysis. This study analyzed the candidates' images in the election posters and conducted a survey of the visual expression elements survey by the age of the voters. As a result of the analysis, Presidential Candidate Moon Jae-in felt fresh, and Yoo Seung-min like Moon had high percentages in layout and color, highlighting his clean image. Hong Jun-pyo had the most diverse preferences by age, and Ahn Cheol-soo, who showed the most unprecedented poster, too, had diverse preferences by age. Shim Sang-jung, who emphasized her familiar image, had preferences for her visual expression elements by all age groups in the following order: layout, color, picture and typography. Therefore, in order to utilize the visual expressions of the election posters, effectively, it is necessary to clarify the messages that the candidates would claim. For this purpose, objective research should continue so that they can be further developed artistically and academically through broad understanding and analysis of the voters rather than subjective expressions.

• Survey Research
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• v.9 no.3
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• pp.55-69
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• 2008

In most telephone surveys in Korea, telephone numbers are selected from the directories. Inevitably, such samples may lack representativeness due to poor coverage rate. To resolve the problem, Kang et al.(2008) implemented RDD(random digit dialing) method for nationwide sampling in Korea. The aim of this study is to compare an RDD sample with a traditional telephone quota sample that were collected independently by two survey institutes commissioned by the KBS-MBC consortium for the 2007 Presidential Election of Korea.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.19 no.2
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• pp.431-441
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• 2008

A public opinion poll's importance is at this time increasing now. Especially, a news report with a fair and objective execution and investigative reporting Moral Code is very important. But a research on the basis of investigative reporting Moral Code is not yet carried out. In this paper, with the center of a public opinion poll involved in the 17th Presidential Election of Korea, investigative reporting Moral Code has been analyzed measurably how well observed in the Press. Furthermore, it has been compared with findings carried out in the year 2002. Finally, through comparing response rate with actual results acquired in a survey of public opinion, I proposed a response rate acquisition.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.27 no.2
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• pp.315-325
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• 2016

Thanks to the advantages of low cost and quick results, public opinion polls on election in Korea have been generally conducted by telephone survey, even though it has critical disadvantage of low response rate. In public opinion polls on election in Korea, the general method to handle nonresponses is adjusting the survey weight to estimate parameters. This study first drives mathematical expression of estimator and its bias with variance estimators with/without nonresponses in election polls in Korea. We also investigates the nonresponse rate of telephone survey on 2012 Korea presidential election. The average response rate was barely about 14.4%. In addition, we conducted a survey in April 2014 on the respondents's attitude toward telephone surveys. In the survey, the first reason for which respondents do not answer on public opinion polls on election was "feel bothered". And the aged 20s group, the most low response group, also gave the same answer. We here suggest that survey researchers motivate survey respondents, specially younger group, to participate surveys and find methods boosting response rate such as giving incentive.

• Analyses & Alternatives
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• v.6 no.1
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• pp.223-258
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• 2022

The 2018 local elections completely upended the composition of Busan's city council, with the council membership changing from being solidly and consistently conservative to being over 80% liberal. What explains this anomalous outcome? While existing literature suggests the outcome of the 2018 city council elections was the consequence of a combination of structural and strategic factors, such as the decline of regional voting, we argue that the individual-level evaluation of President Moon Jae-in is one of the primary factors driving this result. Although coattails effects are commonly considered in concurrent national legislative elections, the Presidentialized and nationalized politics of Korea makes it possible for Presidential elections to affect local elections as well. We assess our explanation through an analysis of repeated cross-sectional survey data collected just before the 2018 local elections. The results of the analysis show that support for the Democratic Party is very strongly predicted by individual-level evaluation of President Moon. When considered in the context of the timing of presidential and local elections, the results suggest that Presidential coattail effects are capable of destabilizing established political patterns, such as regional voting, if perhaps only in a sporadic and idiosyncratic fashion, depending on whether or not local elections are held early on in a President's term.

• Survey Research
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• v.10 no.1
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• pp.73-89
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• 2009

Even though panel surveys are very useful in estimating the change between time points, they suffer from sample distortion as survey rounds proceed due to panel attrition and conditioning. This study is to report the statistical aspects of KBS-MBMR's five-rounds panel survey for the 2007 Presidential Election of Korea. Main findings are as follows. First, the attrition propensities were higher among women, among the young and the old aged, and among "None"/"Don't Know"/"Won't Say"(DK) respondents for the question asking preferred candidate. Second, there existed the conditioning effect that pushes the respondents to choose one candidate in hurry. Third. repeated measurements of the survey did not influence panel respondents on the choice of preferred candidate. if DK respondents are set. aside, and on the final voting intention of panel respondents.

• Journal of Digital Convergence
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• v.14 no.2
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• pp.397-414
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• 2016

There will be coming soon a sequence of the so-called election season in Korea. That is the 20th session of general elections and the 19th presidential election which are taking place one after another. When we talk about presidential candidate, we may realize that the choice were relied upon candidate's facial appearance and speech, voice, dress, and so on. One poll showed that capacity and policy were ranked high and figure and image were ranked next by asking "what is the most important factor when you vote for the president?" This study looked into the candidate's face of a newly elected public office through the election voting. I studied how the factors of sex and beauty may affect on the election results. I analyse survey of candidate's photo on the election leaflets. Analyzed result said that candidate's competency and trust have strong relations in the voting choice rather than beauty even if it is statistically significant. I also find that both beauty and competency are positively interrelated.