• 제목/요약/키워드: future forecast

검색결과 589건 처리시간 0.024초

산업용지 수요예측 및 산업단지 입지선정에 관한 연구 - 안성시를 사례로 - (A Study on the Forecast of Industrial Land Demand and the Location Decision of Industrial Complexes - In Case of Anseong City)

  • 조규영;박헌수;정일훈
    • 농촌계획
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    • 제14권3호
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    • pp.37-51
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    • 2008
  • This study aims to build a model dealing with the location decision of new manufacturing firms and their land demand. The model is composed with 1) the binary logit model structure identifying a future probability of manufacturing firms to locate in a city and their land demand; and 2) the land use suitability of the land demand. The model was empirically tested in the case of Anseong City. We used establishment-level data for the manufacturing industry from the Report on Mining and Manufacturing Survey. 48 industry groups were scrutinized to find the location probability in the city and their land demand via logit model with the dependent variables: number of employment, land capital, building capital, total products, and value-added for a new industry since 2001. It is forecasted that the future land areas (to 2025) for the manufacturing industries in the city are $5.94km^2$ and additional land demand for clustering the existing industries scattered over the city is $2.lkm^2$. Five industrial complex locations were identified through the land use suitability analysis.

System Dynamics를 이용한 원자력발전의 기술가치 평가 (A System Dynamics Approach for Valuing Nuclear Power Technology)

  • 이용석
    • 한국시스템다이내믹스연구
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    • 제7권2호
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    • pp.57-80
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    • 2006
  • Nuclear technology made a great contribution to the national economy and society by localization of nuclear power plant design, and by stabilization of electricity price, etc. It is very important to conduct the retrospective analysis for the nuclear technology contribution to the national economy and society, but it is more important to conduct prospective analysis for the nuclear technology contribution. The term "technology value" is often used in the prospective analysis to value the result of technology development. There are various definitions of technology value, but generally it means the increment of future revenue or the reduction of future cost by technology development. These technology valuation methods are widely used in various fields (information technology or energy technology, etc). The main objective of this research is to develop valuation methodology that represents unique characteristics of nuclear power technology. The valuation methodology that incorporates market share changes of generation technologies was developed. The technology valuation model which consists of five modules (electricity demand forecast module, technology development module, market share module, electricity generation module, total cost module) to incorporate market share changes of generation technologies was developed. The nuclear power technology value assessed by this technology valuation model was 3 times more than the value assessed by the conventional method. So it was confirmed that it is very important to incorporates market share changes of generation technologies. The valuation results of nuclear power technology in this study can be used as policy data for ensuring the benefits of nuclear power R&D (Research and Development) investment.

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Predicting Arab Consumers' Preferences on the Korean Contents Distribution

  • Park, Young-Eun;Chaffar, Soumaya;Kim, Myoung-Sook;Ko, Hye-Young
    • 유통과학연구
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    • 제15권4호
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    • pp.33-40
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    • 2017
  • Purpose - This study aims to examine the analysis of pattern on Arab countries consumers' preferences of the Korean Contents using social media, Facebook since Korean entertainment contents have been distributed in the global marketplace. Then we focus on developing Predictive model using a Data Mining Technique. Research design, data and methodology - In order to understand preference growth of Korean contents in Arabic countries, we- collected data from two popular Facebook pages: 'Korean movies and drama' and 'K-pop'. Then, we adopted a data-driven approach based on Data Mining techniques. Results - It is obvious that the number of likes for K-pop will increase for all North African and Middle Eastern countries, however concerning Korean Movies and Drama except Tunisia it is decreasing for Algeria, Egypt and Morocco. Also, concerning Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, the number of likes will decrease for Korean Movies and Drama which is not the case for Iraq. Conclusions - It is noted in this study that K-contents such as drama, movie and music are sometimes a gateway to a wider interest in Korean culture, food and brands. Moreover, this study gives significant implications for developing predictive model to forecast Korean contents' consumption and preferences.

정보보안에 대한 연구 트렌드 분석 (Analysis of Global Research Trend on Information Security)

  • 김원필
    • 한국정보통신학회논문지
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    • 제19권5호
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    • pp.1110-1116
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    • 2015
  • 본 논문에서는 정보보안에 대한 글로벌 연구 트렌드에 대한 분석을 다룬다. 정보를 이용하는 모든 분야에서 보안을 필요로 하기 때문에, 새롭게 생성되거나 급격하게 발전하는 분야를 발굴하는 것이 정보보안의 방향을 설정하는 것이 될 수 있다. 이에 본 연구의 목적은 정보보안과 관련한 기술들을 파악하고, 이들을 트렌드 관점에서 해석함으로써 향후를 전망해보고자 한다. 현재의 수준은 거시적 관점에서의 분석을 위한 초기 연구로써, 기술들 사이의 연도별 공기정보를 이용하여 2001년부터 2014년까지의 연관성을 측정하고, 상위 연관 기술 자체의 트렌드와 상호 비교하여 그 의미를 분석하였다. 결론적으로는 안드로이드 플랫폼, 빅데이터, 사물인터넷, 모바일 분야, 클라우드 컴퓨팅이 정보보안에 유망한 기술 분야라 할 수 있다.

Current Situation and Policies of Shipping Industry in Vietnam

  • Van Le, Thanh;Kim, Sung-June;Jeong, Jung-Sik
    • 한국항해항만학회지
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    • 제39권2호
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    • pp.131-140
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    • 2015
  • The main aim of this paper, via the method of statistical data analysis, is to analyze the current situation of the shipping industry and policies of the shipping industry in Vietnam. Section 1 gives some key information about the current situation of the shipping industry in Vietnam such as: shipping companies and their fleets, seafarers and ports. In view of the many restrictions faced by the Vietnamese shipping industry, section 2 is used to disclose the policies issued by the Vietnamese government in order to help the domestic maritime industry develop further in the near future, and the outcomes of implementing these policies. Besides the fact that some of the measures were feasible and reasonable, some others were not as effective as they were supposed to be, or in fact the initial forecast of their effectiveness was far-fetched. In the last section, after analyzing reasons for the failures, the author proposes that focusing on coastal transportation routes, fleet and port restructuring and skilled labour training were truly necessary to the development of the industry in the immediate period. Furthermore, this paper is also expected to provide a basic foundation for further research by the authors about 'the strategical approach for the development of shipping industry in developing countries: a case of Vietnam' in the near future.

그린 마케팅과 기업의 자세 (Green Marketing and Attitude of Companies)

  • 조학래
    • 한국정보컨버전스학회논문지
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    • 제1권1호
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    • pp.55-59
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    • 2008
  • 정보화 사회가 도래됨으로 인하여 우리의 생활과 기업의 마케팅도 다양하게 변화가 되었다. 정보의 획득이 손쉬워 지는 오늘날 소비자들의 욕구는 다양해지고 이에 부흥하기 위한 기업의 변화는 환경과 사회기여도까지 고려하지 않을 수 없게 되었다. 따라서 본 연구는 그린마케팅에 대한 최근의 마케팅 환경과 앞으로의 기업에서의 대응방안에 대해 알아보고자 한다. 경영환경 변화 중에서 그린마케팅이라는 화두는 기업의 경영전략에 큰 변화를 가져왔다. 환경은 기업경영과 무관하게 생각해온 과거의 경영과는 달리 오늘날에는 경영전략에서 필수불가결한 전략 중 하나가 되었는데 그것이 그린마케팅이다. 따라서 본 연구는 정보의 홍수 속에 있는 다양한 욕구를 가진 소비자를 만족시키기 위하여 마케팅의 환경변화와 그린 마케팅의 배경을 알아보고 기업의 자세와 미래를 전망하고자 한다.

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프라다 스포츠 패션의 미적 고찰 (A Study on the Aesthetics in PRADA Sports Fashion)

  • 정성혜
    • 복식문화연구
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    • 제14권4호
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    • pp.529-541
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    • 2006
  • The purpose of this study is to analyze the aesthetic characteristics of PRADA's sports fashion, leading the fashion trend and one of the most influenced designers in 1990's, and thereby, helps to forecast them in the future. We studied the concept of sports fashion and the historic background of PRADA sports fashion. We also used corroborative method resolving Internet illustrated magazine, fashion journals and magazines so as to analyze the aesthetic and formative features from 1990's up to now. The results were summarized as follows ; The sports fashion in 1990's was classified into functional sportswear and town sports look. The functional sportswear can be separated into active sportswear and street sportswear. Town sports look that has been combined the elements of design in active sportswear had characters slim silhouette and simple details influenced by minimalism and reflected on the mainstream of 1990's lifestyle. Especially, PRADA's town-wear using high-tec textiles for sportswear affected on other couturiers and settled down them in the world wide fashion trend with her aesthetic expression. The aesthetic characteristics of PRADA's sports fashion appear the zenith of the minimalism and the elements of postmodernism which expressed remarkably the advanced future and familiar past at the same time as like high-tec materials, and classic silhouettes with functional details. Finally, we are able to anticipate that the aesthetics of PRADA sports look will be continued in the 21C with concerning about well-being, health, and sports & leisure.

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스트리트 패션을 근원으로 한 영 패션의 형성에 대한 연구 (A study on the formation of Youth's Fashion based on Street Fashion)

  • 신혜영
    • 복식
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    • 제27권
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    • pp.5-16
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    • 1996
  • In today's fashion Street is a birthplace of new generation fashion and Street Fashion have frequently influenced on high fashion. From this view point this study is a meaningful approach to forecast future fashion trend by examining the street style of youth who are regarded as Street Fashion leaders. The purpose of this study is to examine the Youth Fashion style in early 1990s and to pro-vide a reference to fashion designer and mer-chandiser in trend forecasting and product plan-ning. This study is focused on 1990s Youth Fashion style through the historical Street Fashion : 1950s Teddy boys & Mods 1960s Hippies & Skinhead and 1970s Punk. There were mainly two popular Street Fashion phenomena in early 1990s. There were mainly two popular Street Fashion phenomena in early 1990s. One is grunge fashion created by new gener-ation in opposition to existing generation society and impacting on hish fashion leaders. The other is Remix style that is mixed : sub culture fashion originated by young group in 1950-1970s with 1990s sensitivity. Both fashion styles origionated and led by youth of street have influenced on famous high fashion designeres as well as the general public. Street Fashion will continue to play an import-ant role in future fashion and more study and interest on Street Fashion should be taken by fashion forecaster and related.

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현대 청소년 특성이 반영된 청소년 패션에 관한 연구 -2001-2006년 (Adolescents' Fashion Reflecting the Features of Modern Adolescents -Focused on 「SPORT&STREET」 from 2001 to 2006-)

  • 전재훈;하지수
    • 한국의류학회지
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    • 제32권1호
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    • pp.65-70
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    • 2008
  • The objectives of this study are to forecast the pattern of adolescents that will appear in the future and to contribute to the creation of the fashion styles that meet their tastes. This study analysed the relationship between the features and the fashion of modem adolescents through a comprehensive perspective. And it was focused on a literature study and empirical study. Specifically, for the fashion style of modem adolescents, the study conducted an empirical analysis of the styles shown in pictures selected around key words out of a total of 21 volumes of ${\ulcorner}$SPORT&STREET${\lrcorner}$ from 2001 to 2006. The fashion style of modem adolescents is developing into a different pattern from the past, and by theme this can be classified into sports style, jeans style, romantic style, vintage style, hip-hop style, future style, humor style and ethnic style. The features of modem adolescents, including collective conformity, personal expression, and receptiveness to new concepts, were expressed by unique fashion styles. It is necessary to create a fashion style that modem adolescents, who have diverse tastes and dispositions and are living in this rapidly changing society, can enjoy it by understanding the nature of their features, such as collective conformity, personal expression, and reception to new concepts.

일반 투자가에 의한 발전소 건설 Cycle과 DSM (The Construction Cycle by Investors and DSM in the Electricity Wholesale Market)

  • 안남성;김현실
    • 한국시스템다이내믹스연구
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    • 제3권1호
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    • pp.43-60
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    • 2002
  • This paper describes the forecast of wholesale price in competitive Korean electricity market using the system dynamics approach. The system dynamics concepts have been implemented with the Ithink software. This software facilitates the development of stock and flow model with information feedback. Using this model, the future wholesale electricity price can be computed hour by hour, quarterly, and yearly. This model also gives the energy planner the opportunity to create different scenarios for the future of deregulated wholesale markets in Korea. Also It will lead to increased understanding of competitive wholesale market as a complex, dynamic system. Research results show that the plant construction appeared in waves of boom and bust in Korean electricity market like real estate construction. That is, the Korea wholesale market's new power plants and the market price will appear the Boom and Bust cycle. It is very similar behavior as real estate industry. In case of consideration of DSM program, The DSM savings lead to a somewhat different timing of the booms in construction and of price spikes. But the DSM programs do not eliminated the fundamental dynamics of the boom and bust. And the wholesale price is maintained at the lower level compared to the case of without DSM program. However, the unexpected result is found that due to the lower market price, Investor make significantly less investment in new CCs, which leads to the higher wholesale price after 2010. It suggests that the DSM Policy must be implemented with the dynamics of competitive Electricity Market.

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