• Title/Summary/Keyword: expected value

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A Study on Setting Expected Targets for Satisfaction with the Frequency of Use of Construction Technology Information (건설기술정보의 활용 빈도 만족도에 대한 기대 목표치 설정에 관한 연구)

  • Seong-Yun Jeong
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Library and Information Science
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    • v.58 no.2
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    • pp.251-268
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    • 2024
  • Recently, with the implementation of the "e-Government Performance Management Guidelines," there is a growing demand for setting performance indicators for information systems. For systems that provide information services to the public, such as CODIL, it is not easy to set performance indicators. This study presented a research model that applies Monte Carlo simulation to set expected performance targets that can be achieved through CODIL based on objective evidence. Among the survey contents conducted from 2015 to 2023, the statistical characteristics of user satisfaction regarding the frequency of use of construction technology information provided by CODIL were designated as input variables. Future expected targets and confidence intervals from 2024 to 2026 were designated as outcome variables. The expected target value was measured by generating 5 simulation alternatives and 1,000 random numbers for each alternative. Next, the measured expected goals were interpreted and compared with the results of time series regression analysis measured in previous studies. Although, as in previous studies, the expected target value could not be predicted based on time series regression analysis that considers the correlation between years. However, compared to previous studies, this study can be considered a more accurate analysis result because it predicted the expected target value based on 5,000 input variables.

Relationship Between Housing Prices and Expected Housing Prices in the Real Estate Industry (주택유통산업에서의 주택가격과 기대주택가격간의 관계분석)

  • Choi, Cha-Soon
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.13 no.11
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    • pp.39-46
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    • 2015
  • Purpose - In Korea, there has been a recent trend that shows housing prices have risen rapidly following the International Monetary Fund crisis. The rapid rise in housing prices is spreading recognition of this as a factor in housing price volatility. In addition, this raises the expectations of housing prices in the future. These expectations are based on the assumption that a relationship exists between the current housing prices and expected housing prices in the real estate industry. By performing an empirical analysis on the validity of the claim that an increase in current housing prices can be correlated with expected housing prices, this study examines whether a long-term equilibrium relationship exists between expected housing prices and existing housing prices. If such a relationship exists, the recovery of equilibrium from disequilibrium is analyzed to derive related implications. Research design, data, and methodology - The relationship between current housing prices and expected housing prices was analyzed empirically using the Vector Error Correction Model. This model was applied to the co-integration test, the long-term equilibrium equation among variables, and the causality test. The housing prices used in the analysis were based on the National Housing Price Trend Survey released by Kookmin Bank. Additionally, the Index of Industrial Product and the Consumer Price Index were also used and were obtained from the Bank of Korea ECOS. The monthly data analyzed were from January 1987 to May 2015. Results - First, a long-term equilibrium relationship was established as one co-integration between current housing price distribution and expected housing prices. Second, the sign of the long-term equilibrium relationship variable was consistent with the theoretical sign, with the elasticity of housing price distribution to expected housing price, the industrial production, and the consumer price volatility revealed as 1.600, 0.104,and 0.092, respectively. This implies that the long-term effect of expected housing price volatility on housing price distribution is more significant than that of the industrial production and consumer price volatility. Third, the sign of the coefficient of the error correction term coincided with the theoretical sign. The absolute value of the coefficient of the correction term in the industrial production equation was 0.006, significantly larger than the coefficients for the expected housing price and the consumer price equation. In case of divergence from the long-term equilibrium relationship, the state of equilibrium will be restored through changes in the interest rate. Fourth, housing-price volatility was found to be causal to expected housing price, and was shown to be bi-directionally causal to industrial production. Conclusions - Based on the finding of this study, it is required to relieve the association between current housing price distribution and expected housing price by using property taxes and the loan-to-value policy to stabilize the housing market. Further, the relationship between housing price distribution and expected housing price can be examined and tested using a sophisticated methodology and policy variables.

The Relationship of Ambivalent Clothing Consuming Behavior, Value and Value-Conscious Consumption (양면적 의복소비행동을 중심으로 가치와 가치소비의 관계분석)

  • Jun, Ji-Hyun;Rhee, Young-Sun
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Clothing and Textiles
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    • v.34 no.9
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    • pp.1491-1503
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    • 2010
  • This study examines the characteristics of consumers on the ambivalent clothing consuming behavior and the relationship of relevant variables. The data were obtained from 400 females over 20 years old who lived in the cities of Daejeon or Seoul in October in 2009. The values consist of four dimensions: success-oriented value, social value, family-oriented value, and individual value. Value-conscious consumption consists of two dimensions: emotional value-conscious consumption and functional value-conscious consumption. The aforementioned four dimensions of value have positive effects on ambivalent clothing consuming behavior. In addition, emotional value-conscious consumption has a significant relationship on all 5 types in ambivalent clothing consuming behavior. The findings of this study are expected to be used to find niche markets and establish advanced advertising strategies.

A case study on balanced customer segmentation (균형적 고객세분화에 관한 사례연구)

  • Yoon Jong-Wook;Yoon Jong-Soo
    • Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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    • v.11 no.2 s.40
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    • pp.303-317
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    • 2006
  • The process of segmenting customers in CRM should take into equal consideration both the companies' and customers' expected value. However, most of the current studies on customer segmentation have focused only on the companies view in terms of profitability. This study focuses on clarifying a problem and proposing a modified view in the customer segmentation step. The authors offer a proposition which is beneficial to both customers and companies, and thus makes the segmentation step more balanced. There is a two-pronged focus on customer segmentation in this study: first, this paper proposes a balanced view considering not only companies' expected value, but also that of the customers'. Secondly, such balanced segmentation will give a more accurate definition of loyal customers for a given company. This new approach can be expected to improve the level of satisfaction and the length of customer retention, and to increase effectiveness in corporate resource allocation for customer target marketing, as well as improve company insight into customer needs and preferences.

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A Bayesian approach to replacement policy following the expiration of non-renewing combination warranty based on cost and downtime (비재생혼합보증이 종료된 이후의 비용과 비가동시간에 근거한 교체정책에 대한 베이지안 접근)

  • Jung, Ki-Mun
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.21 no.5
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    • pp.873-882
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    • 2010
  • This paper considers a Bayesian approach to replacement policy following the expiration of non-renewing combination warranty. The non-renewing combination warranty is the combination of the non-renewing free replacement warranty and the non-renewing pro-rata replacement warranty. We use the criterion based on the expected cost and the expected downtime to determine the optimal replacement period. To do so, we obtain the expected cost rate per unit time and the expected downtime per unit time, respectively. When the failure times are assumed to follow a Weibull distribution with uncertain parameters, we propose the optimal replacement policy based on the Bayesian approach. The overall value function suggested by Jiang and Ji (2002) is utilized to determine the optimal replacement period. Also, the numerical examples are presented for illustrative purpose.

Expected Annual Damage Estimation with Uncertainty (불확실성을 고려한 연피해 기대치 산정)

  • Kim, Hung Soo;Kim, Yoo Jin;Lee, Ji-Won
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
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    • v.5 no.1
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    • pp.41-52
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    • 2003
  • The flood damage reduction studies have been performed by the channel improvement plan and the levee has mainly constructed with the freeboard concept. However, the freeboard concept might be an inappropriate choice as a safety factor of the levee because many uncertainties are involved in the procedure of the channel improvement plan studies. So, we considered the uncertainties In the discharge-probability, stage-discharge, and stage-damage functions and estimate the expected annual damage. The Monte Carlo technique for uncertainty analysis is used. As our results, the expected annual damage with uncertainty shows the larger value than without uncertainty. Since the expected annual damage with uncertainty already considers the safety factor it is the proper result. However, the expected annual damage without uncertainty does not consider the safety factor yet. Thus, if the expected annual damage without uncertainty considers the freeboard concept, it could be compared with the expected annual damage with uncertainty for the evaluation of the overestimation or underestimation of the levee construction.

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An Efficient Idea Creation Method of Design Value Engineering for Construction Projects (건설 프로젝트 설계VE의 효율적인 아이디어 창출 방법)

  • Kim, Soo-Yong;Yang, Jin-Kook
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.7 no.1 s.29
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    • pp.55-63
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    • 2006
  • As value engineering in design phase is big in the effect of application, analysis by systematic procedures is required. The most important part is the stage of creation for making of idea. It takes much time for us to make good idea involving the brainstorming and delphi in recent making idea. It is expected because most experts in participating in design value engineering is to approach with less effective method. In this study we suggest that application of ASIT(Advanced Systematic Inventive Thinking) is the method as way of creative idea making. ASIT is expected to perform Idea making with systematic procedure and to create effective idea in short time.

Measuring the Effects of Service Quality, Perceived Sacrifice, Food Price and Image on Value (서비스 품질, 지각된 희생, 식당 가격과 이미지가 가치에 미치는 영향 평가)

  • Kang, Jong-Heon;Ko, Beom-Seok
    • Culinary science and hospitality research
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    • v.13 no.4
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    • pp.57-66
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    • 2007
  • The purpose of this study was to assess the effects of service quality, perceived sacrifice, food price and image on value. A total of 273 questionnaires were completed. MANOVA, ANOVA, and ANCOVA were used to measure the main effects and mediating effects of service quality and perceived sacrifice on the relationships among price, image, and value. The main effects of price on service quality, perceived sacrifice, and value were statistically significant. The main effects of image on service quality and value were statistically significant. As expected, when price, service quality, and perceived sacrifice regressed on the value, they were statistically significant. Moreover, when image, service quality, and perceived sacrifice regressed on the value, they had statistically significant effects on value. The results demonstrated that service quality played a mediating role in the relationship between price and value.

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An Evaluation Model for the Expected Value of the Construction Project Management Information System (건설관리 업무의 정보시스템화 기대가치 평가 모델)

  • Hwang In-Ae;Yoo Jung-Ho;Song Sang-Hoon;Yoo Won-Hee;Park Jong-Won;Kim Woo-Young;Lee Hyun-Soo;Choi Yoon-Ki
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute Of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • autumn
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    • pp.541-544
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    • 2003
  • The Information System(IS) planning for construction project management must be performed through decomposing the construction management business process upon considering the information technology in a construction company. Following this background, this paper proposes a model for evaluating the expected value of IS planning for construction project management. The model is made to analyze the effectiveness and to evaluate the opportunity of IS planning for task and information, then finally to quantify the value. Lastly, this model can be used to plan IS for construction project management.

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A Study on Grounding Resistance by Parallel Connection (병렬 접속에 의한 접지저항에 관한 연구)

  • 고희석;최종규;류희석;김주찬
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of IIIuminating and Electrical Installation Engineers Conference
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    • 2002.11a
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    • pp.307-312
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    • 2002
  • For accuracy of an experiment, measure changing of grounding resistance by short period after construction and investigated the efficiency of grounding's different methode of parallel connection. We could confirm on measurement's accuracy, error through comparing the theoretical value and measured value. Therefore, reduction ratio can be expected from execution measurement to receive a target resistance value. By the result, we could evaluate the method of rod grounding electrode's proper execution

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