• 품질경영학회지
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• 제26권4호
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• pp.101-110
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• 1998

The mean residual life function is the expected remaining life of an item at age $\chi$. The problem of trend change in the mean residual life is great interest in the reliability and survival analysis. In this paper we develop a new test statistic for testing whether or not the mean residual life changes its trend based on a complete sample. Monte Carlo simulations are conducted to compare the perfor mance of our test statistic with that of previously known tests.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• 제7권3호
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• pp.789-798
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• 2000

The mean residual function is the expected remaining life of an item at age x. The problem of trend change in the mean residual life is great interest in the reliability and survival analysis. In this paper, we develop a family of test statistics for testing whether or not the mean residual life changes its trend. The asymptotic normality of the test statistics is established. Monte Carlo simulations are conducted to study the performance of our test statistics.

• KEPCO Journal on Electric Power and Energy
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• 제8권2호
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• pp.79-86
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• 2022

Recently, the amount of maintenance is increasing due to the aging of power facilities, but the budget is constrained. Therefore, the importance of asset management that selects replacement priorities based on the failure probability and enhances investment effects is increasing. Because the number of distribution transformers is very large, the proportion of investment cost is very high. Therefore, it is important to select the investment priority by evaluating the reliable remaining life based on the failure probability. This paper evaluates the statistical expected life using the failure data of distribution transformers for the last 11 years and the current operation data. The hazard rate of distribution transformer and MV cable was compared with each other and the adequacy of early failure removal was reviewed and the statistical expected life corresponding to the cumulative failure probability B3% was calculated.

• 한국통신학회논문지
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• 제42권4호
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• pp.939-949
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• 2017

고장 예지 및 건전성 관리 기술(Prognostics and Health Management; PHM)은 시스템의 현재 상태를 진단하고 향후 발생 가능한 고장 시점을 신뢰성 있게 예지하는 기술로써 유지 보수 비용의 절감 및 시스템의 안정성 향상을 꾀하고자 하는 다양한 산업분야에서 활발하게 이용되고 있다. 스마트 그리드의 에너지 저장장치, 전기차, 스마트폰, 항공우주산업 등 광범위한 사용처에서 중요한 에너지원으로 사용되고 있는 배터리 또한 성능 저하 및 폭발의 위험성으로부터 자유로울 수 없기 때문에 이러한 고장 예지 및 건전성 관리 기술이 반드시 적용되어야 할 어플리케이션이다. 본 논문에서는 PHM의 기본적인 개념을 소개함과 동시에 배터리의 잔존 유효 수명(Remaining Useful Life; RUL)을 예측하는 각종 알고리즘 및 성능 평가 지표 서술에 초점을 맞추도록 한다. 더불어 배터리의 기능적 동작 원리 및 전기화학 기반의 모델링에 대한 설명을 통해 향후 잠재적인 가능성을 지닌 배터리의 전반적인 특성에 대한 깊은 이해 및 응용 기술에 대한 통찰력을 제시하고자 한다.

• 한국정보시스템학회지:정보시스템연구
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• 제29권1호
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• pp.75-91
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• 2020

Purpose Retrofit, defined to be addition of new technologies or features to the old system to increase efficiency or to abate GHG emissions, is considered as an important alternative for the old coal-fired power plant. The purpose of this study is to propose mathematical method to model multiple alternative retrofit in Generation Capacity Expansion Planning(GCEP) problem, and to get insight to the retrofit patterns from realistic case studies. Design/methodology/approach This study made a multi-alternative retrofit GECP model by adopting some new variables and equations to the existing GECP model. Added variables and equations are to ensure the retrofit feature that the life time of retrofitted plant is the remaining life time of the old power plant. We formulated such that multiple retrofit alternatives are simultaneously compared and the best retrofit alternative can be selected. And we found that old approach to model retrofit has a problem that old plant with long remaining life time is retrofitted earlier than the one with short remaining life time, fixed the problem by some constraints with some binary variables. Therefore, the proposed model is formulated into a mixed binary programming problem, and coded and run using the GAMS/cplex. Findings According to the empirical analysis result, we found that approach to model the multiple alternative retrofit proposed in this study is comparing simultaneously multiple retrofit alternatives and select the best retrofit satisfying the retrofit features related to the life time. And we found that retrofit order problem is cleared. In addition, the model is expected to be very useful in evaluating and developing the national policies concerning coal-fired power plant retrofit.

• 한국융합학회논문지
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• 제10권12호
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• pp.271-280
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• 2019

제조산업 분야의 디지털트랜스포메이션의 일환인 스마트공장은 데이터 기반으로 모니터링 및 분석 그리고 예측을 통해서 의사결정 방식을 획기적으로 변화시키고 있다. 특히 설비에 대한 예지보전은 스마트공장의 핵심적인 요소로서 필요성이 증대되고 있다. 본 연구의 목적은 철강 도금공정의 예지보전을 위해 도금로 설비의 열화 특성을 고려한 잔존수명 분석과 예측모델을 산출하는 것이다. 상관성 분석, 다중회귀 분석, 주성분회귀 분석 그리고 시간의 경과에 따른 열화의 추이 파악을 위하여 이동회귀 방식을 제안하여 진행하였다. 그 결과 도금로 열화는 생산성 인자들과 주된 의존적 관계가 있으며, 특히 환경 온도 인자들의 영향성이 열화의 추이 변화에 관계가 있음을 추론할 수 있었다. 예측된 잔존수명을 활용하여 도금로 교체가 필요한 시점을 사전에 알려주는 예지보전을 구현하였다. 향후 설비의 열화 추이 파악에 본 연구에서 수행한 방안이 적절한 사례가 되어 보다 정합성 있는 예지보전 구현이 가능해지기를 기대한다.

• 산업경영시스템학회지
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• 제44권4호
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• pp.1-11
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• 2021

Recently, the importance of preventive maintenance has been emerging since failures in a complex system are automatically detected due to the development of artificial intelligence techniques and sensor technology. Therefore, prognostic and health management (PHM) is being actively studied, and prediction of the remaining useful life (RUL) of the system is being one of the most important tasks. A lot of researches has been conducted to predict the RUL. Deep learning models have been developed to improve prediction performance, but studies on identifying the importance of features are not carried out. It is very meaningful to extract and interpret features that affect failures while improving the predictive accuracy of RUL is important. In this paper, a total of six popular deep learning models were employed to predict the RUL, and identified important variables for each model through SHAP (Shapley Additive explanations) that one of the explainable artificial intelligence (XAI). Moreover, the fluctuations and trends of prediction performance according to the number of variables were identified. This paper can suggest the possibility of explainability of various deep learning models, and the application of XAI can be demonstrated. Also, through this proposed method, it is expected that the possibility of utilizing SHAP as a feature selection method.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• 제39권2호
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• pp.25-51
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• 2017

This paper employs an Overlapping Generations Model to quantify the impacts of Korea's demographic transition toward an older population on the total output growth rate. The model incorporates the projected population through 2060 according by Statistics Korea. The effects of the low fertility and increased life expectancy rates are studied. The model is considered suitable for analyzing the effects of demographic changes on the Korean economy. Under the assumption that the TFP growth rate will not slow considerably in the future, remaining at 1.3% per annum, the gross output growth rate of the Korean economy is projected to slow to 1.1% per annum in the 2050s, from 4.0% in the 2000s. The shrinking workforce due to the decline in fertility plays a significant role in the deceleration of the Korean economy. The increased life expectancy rate is expected to mitigate the negative effect, but the magnitude of its effect is found to be limited.

• 품질경영학회지
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• 제25권3호
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• pp.11-21
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• 1997

The mean residual life(MRL) function gives the expected remaining life of a item at age t. In particular F is said to be an increasing intially then decreasing MRL(IDMRL) distribution if there exists a turing point $t^*\ge0$ such that m(s)$\le$ m(t) for 0$$\le s$\le$ t $t^*$, m(s)$\ge$ m(t) for $t^*\le$ s$\le$ t. If the preceding inequality is reversed, F is said to be a decreasing initially then increasing MRL(DIMRL) distribution. Hawkins, et al.(1992) proposed test of H0 : F is exponential versus$H_1$: F is IDMRL, and $H_0$ versus $H_1$' : F is DIMRL when turning point is unknown. Their test is based on a complete random sample $X_1$, …, $X_n$ from F. In this paper, we generalized Hawkins-Kochar-Loader test to random censored data.

• 한국결정성장학회지
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• 제25권1호
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• pp.13-19
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• 2015

Among the various possible factors affecting the Minority Carrier Life Time (MCLT) of the mc-Si crystal, dislocations formed during the cooling period after solidification were found to be a major element. It was confirmed that other defects such as grain boundary or twin boundary were not determinative defects affecting the MCLT because most of these defects seemed to be formed during the solidification period. With a measurement of total thickness variation (TTV) and bow of the silicon wafers, it was found that residual stress remaining in the mc-Si crystal might be another major factor affecting the MCLT. Thus, it is expected that better quality of mc-Si can be grown when the cooling process right after solidification is carried out as slow as possible.