• Title/Summary/Keyword: discriminant

Search Result 1,926, Processing Time 0.036 seconds

Meat Quality of Highly Marbled Imported Beef with Reference to Hanwoo Beef (근내지방도가 높은 수입 등심육과 한우육의 육질특성 비교)

  • Hwang, I.H.;Park, B.Y.;Cho, S.H.;Kim, J.H.;Lee, J.M.
    • Journal of Animal Science and Technology
    • /
    • v.46 no.4
    • /
    • pp.659-666
    • /
    • 2004
  • This study was conducted to assess objective and subjective meat quality traits for imported chilled beef with a high degree of marbling in longissimus muscle with reference to Hanwoo beef Muscle samples of four Wagyu, four Angus, four Hanwoo grade 1, and three Hanwoo grade 3 were purchased from a commercial beef market. The meats had intramuscular fat content of approximately 22, 8, 13 and 4%, and aged for 31, 71, 14 and 14 days, respectively. Imported beef showed a significantly(P<0.05) lower WB-shear force than Hanwoo. However, the instrument measurement did not reflect sensory tenderness and juiciness, which were similar between the four groups. On the other hand, Hanwoo beef showed significantly(P<0.05) favorable flavor intensity. This was likely an indication of more a desirable eating quality for Hanwoo beef, regardless of the level of intramuscular fat content. Discriminant functions of C18: 0, C18: In-7, C18: In-9, C20: 3n-6, C20 : 4n-6 and total n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids classified the domestic and foreign beef products at 100%, despite a noticeable difference between two groups existed only in C18:0. Principle component analysis indicated that subjective flavor intensity was negatively related to C18: 0 and C18: ln-7. The result indicated that C18: 0 could be a possible candidate fatty acid for difference in flavor intensity between two beef groups. The current study demonstrated that the domestic product was more acceptable for Korean consumers. However, it was not identified whether the result was associated with breed, feeding regime, or ageing time. Further studies are required for breed specification in terms of sensory characteristics and consumer preference.

A Study on the Differences of Cognitive Functions, Neurobehavioral Symptoms and Daily Living Functions According to the Lateralization of Lesion in Patients with Non-Traumatic Subcortical Cerebrovascular Disease (비외상성 피질하 뇌혈관질환 환자에서 병소의 편측성에 따른 인지기능, 정신행동증상 및 일상생활기능의 차이에 대한 연구)

  • Park, Young-Soo;Lee, Young-Ho;Choi, Young-Hee;Ko, Dae-Kwan;Chung, Young-Cho;Park, Byoung-Kwan;Kim, Soo-Ji;Chung, Suk-Haui;Ko, Byoung-Hee;Song, Il-Byoung;Park, Kun-Woo;Lee, Dae-Hie
    • Sleep Medicine and Psychophysiology
    • /
    • v.3 no.1
    • /
    • pp.56-67
    • /
    • 1996
  • Objectives : This study was designed to find clinical factors that could be differentiated by the lateralization of lesion and also find clinical factors to predict the lateralization of lesion. Methods : The subjects were 65 cooperative inpatients and outpatients with non-traumatic subcortical cerebrovascular disease without neurologic and psychiatric history from January 1995 to September 1995 ; 48 patients in Kyung Hee University, Oriental Medicine Hospital, 35 patients in Anam Hospital, Korea University were examined as subjects, but authors excluded 20 patients whose data were incomplete or who had uncertain lesions on brain CT or MRI. The 65 patients were divided into three groups-group with left hemispheric lesion, group with right hemispheric lesion, group with both hemispheric lesion-according to the finding of brain imaging study. Their cognitive functions were evaluated by the Benton Neuropsychological Assessment(BNA), their subjective neurobehavioral symptoms by Symptom Check List-90-R(SCL-90-R), their objective neurobehavioral symptoms by Neurobehavioral Rating Scale, and their daily living functions by Geriatric Evaluation by Relative's Rating Instrument(GERRl) and Instrumental Activities of Daily Living Scale(IADLs). Results : The results were as follows : 1) The results of cognitive function test indicated that the group with right hemispheric lesion showed low functions in Tactile Form Perception(left), the group with left hemispheric lesion showed low functions in Finger localization(right), the group with right hemispheric lesion showed low functions in Finger Localization(left). 2) Though, there were little significant differences in subjective neurobehavioral symptoms, the group with right hemispheric lesion showed higher scores in all symptoms except hostility. 3) Though, there were little significant differences in objective neurobehavioral symptoms, the group with both hemispheric lesion showed higher scores in cognition, guilty/disinhibition, the group with left hemispheric lesion showed higher scores in lability of mood, the group with right hemispheric lesion showed highest scores in psychotism, neurotism, agitation-hostility and decreased motivation/emotional withdrawal. 4) There were little significant differences among three groups in Daily Living Functions, but the group with right hemispheric lesion showed the lowest functions in Instrumental Activities of Daily Living. 5) As a result of discriminant analysis on each factor's contribution to the prediction of lesion, Finger Localization(left), Phoneme Discrimination and Tactile Form Perception(right) showed that they had the potentiality to predict lesion. Conclusion : The results suggest that there are little significant differences among the groups of three non-traumatic subcortical cerebrovascular disease in cognitive functions, but the group with right hemispheric lesion showed more serious and various changes in subjective and objective neurobehavioral symptoms, and showed low functions in Instrumental Activities of Daily Living. This results suggest the possibility that the decline of the daily living function in the group with right hemispheric lesion were due to various symptoms, not due to cognitive dysfunction. The confirmation of the possibility should be worked out through the follow-up study of some groups containing cortical lesion. Apart from these findings, Finger Localization, Tactile Form Perception(right) and Phoneme Discrimination suggest that they can be used as clinically valuable cognitive parameters that predict the lateralization of lesion in non-traumatic cerebrovascular disease.

  • PDF

Health Related Lifestyle and Stress Among Inhabitants of a City in Korea (일부 도시지역 주민들의 일상생활습관과 스트레스와의 관련성)

  • 손철준;조영채
    • Korean Journal of Health Education and Promotion
    • /
    • v.21 no.2
    • /
    • pp.17-32
    • /
    • 2004
  • The purpose of this study was to evaluate the patterns of stresses arising from various life styles and their related sociodemographic factors in urban residents. The subjects were recruited from the population of two ‘Dong’s (administrative blocks) representative of Daejeon city through stratified cluster random sampling during the period ranging from June I st to Aug. 31 st, 2003. Self-administered questionnaires, including items asking about subjects' sociodemographic characteristics, daily life styles, measurement of stresses by General Health Questionnaire (Goldberg, 1978), were delivered to 396 residents and their responses were analyzed with the following results. 1. Based on the discriminant scores of HPI, 46.7% of the subjects were found to have less than 4 points (poor life style), whereas 53.3% had points higher than 5 (good life style). Higher than 5 points were scored more frequently in females than in the male, in the age group of 40's - 60's than the 30's, in the group with spouse than without, in the group with both spouse and offsprings than without, and in the group owning a house than not. 2. Based on the degree of stress, 17.7% of the subjects were determined to be healthy, 74.5% were potentially under stress, and 7.8% were at higher risk of stress. The proportion of healthy individuals were significantly higher in the male, advanced aged group(40's and 60's), the group with higher education years( over highschool), with higher monthly income over two million Won, and with spouse, than their respective counterparts. On the other hand the proportion of the individuals potentially under stress and at higher risk of stress was significantly higher in the female, in the age group of 30's and over 60's, in the group with academic career lower than middle school, with monthly income lower than two million Won, and without spouse. 3. Based on the relation of HPI with degree of stresses, subjects with HPI scores lower than 4 had increased rate of falling into the groups under potential stress and at higher risk of stress, while on the other hand those with over 5 points were found to be healthy in light of stress. 4. Based on the specific relation of each item of HPI with degree of stress, the proportion of healthy individuals was higher in the groups who take appropriate hours of sleep(7-8hours), who take breakfasts everyday, who take physical exercises everyday, who don't smoke, who don't drink alcohol, who take snacks everyday, who are overweight and obese, whereas the proportion of the group under potential stress and at higher risk of stress was higher in their comparable counterparts. 5. The relation of mean scores of HPI with stress scores in both male and female subjects showed negative correlation that the higher HPI scores, the lower stress scores. 6. Multivariate regression analysis to reveal the factors influencing the stress of the subjects showed that for men the significant factors were age, education, presence of job or not, exercise, subjective health status, with the explanatory power of 26.3%. For women, they included educational years, presence of spouse or not, job, owning a house or not, sleeping hours, drinking habit, taking snacks, subjective health status, with the explanatory power of 31.8%. The above study results suggests that stresses of urban residents have significant correlation with daily life styles and this correlation is also remarkably distinguished by different age and sex.

A study on simple nursing activities for the registered nurses and nurse aides in the hospital (단순간호활동에 관한 간호사 및 간호조무사의 태도조사연구)

  • Lee Jung-Hee
    • Journal of Korean Public Health Nursing
    • /
    • v.4 no.1
    • /
    • pp.37-55
    • /
    • 1990
  • Every country in the world has been trying to expand the basic health right for the peoples as W.H.O has established the goal 'health for AU' by the year of 2000. Related to this goal, our government authority has establish the policy 'the insurance of health for all' into effect from July 198\). Recently hospitalshave been making a ceaseless effort for the plan for the rationalization of its management the academic World is making it a subject of discussion by doing the secure of manpower at a resonable level and the increase of productivity by the manpower. As a result of the efforts the study was established to secure the numbers of nursing manpower at a resonable level and use the unskilled persons at the utilizing field and seek the possible area of their activity for more efficient service through the investigation of ablity of simple nursing activities of regiestered nurses and nurse aides for rational function according to the educational levels and talents. The method of study was established by the registered nurses and nurse and nurse aides(R.N 229, N.A 226) who are working in 15 hospitals with over 200 beds. This surrey was conducted from Mar 29, 1989 to April 8, 1989. The method to test the degree of importance, difficulties, and the abillity of performance of a simple nursing activities was classified into 35 activities on the basis of references on this field. The degree of importance was composed from point l(Not so important) to 5(Very important). the degree of difficulties. was composed as follows; very easy - Point 1 very difficult and complicated - Point 5. and the ability of performance was composed from point 1 to 5. The materials gathered through the survey were analyzed with frequency, mean standard deviation, percentage. t-test, Anova, pearson's coefficient of correlation, stepwise multiple regression. factor analysis, discriminant analysis. The obtained results are summarized as follows: 1. The recognition values of the simple nursing activities of each group of registered nurse and nurse aides show; The degree of importance; 4.04 and 4.26 The degree of difficulties; 2.72 and 2.94 The ability of performance; 2.07 and 2.38 The brief summary shows there are little differences between who two groups the simple nursing activities turned out to be easy and simple work. 2. Regardless of the degree of importance, and difficulties, the ability of performance the important in fluencing of the degree of the simple nursing activities between the registered nurses and nurse aides was the order of educational level, hospital career, working career in wards and ages of the registered nurses and ages and hospital creer of nurse aides. The result was that the simple nursing activities could easily be familiar through the training of their working environment and period of experience. 3. Among the 35 simple nursing activities the items capable of resonable entrusting to the nurse aides are 5 that is helping bed-bathing, 8itz Bath, using bed pan, care while delivering patient, accompaying patient when visitor's check. There wasn't and differences between RN and nurse aides in performing the above 5 items. In anywhere. so we can say obviosuly that this nursing activities should be performed under the nursing system of which chief of nurse are supposed to supervise nurse aides as a possible function to be entrusted. In view of the above mentioned results, therefore, this partial functional job of the simple nursing activities can able be entrusted to the nurse aides through the regular training course. In case of these functional activities could be entrusted under, the responsibility of registered nurse, we can able suggest to for that there are the following advantages: 1.. In the nursing activities-affairs, the qualified guarantee of the nursing services can be kept and increased or promotoed with accommodation of the required nursing service and roles being expanded presently. 2. In the productivity of the hospital manpower, therefore, we have comt to view and consider in favourly that when an automational administration times would be come in the near future time to hospital affairs as a reality, to utilize the existing nures aides is better rather than investing so as to develop the other source manpowers or seek its for the efficient business management in the operational strategy or its policy.

  • PDF

Development of instrument for measuring Home Economics-Pedagogical Content Knowledge(H-PCK) (가정교과교육학 지식(H-PCK)의 측정도구 개발)

  • Lee, Seung Jin;Yu, Nan Sook
    • Journal of Korean Home Economics Education Association
    • /
    • v.29 no.1
    • /
    • pp.35-56
    • /
    • 2017
  • The purposes of this study were to develop an instrument to examine the latent domains to measure H-PCK and verify the reliability and validity of the instrument. To accomplish these purposes, instrument item development, content validity, pilot study, and main study were conducted. The results were as follows. First, based on a review of extant literature, 29 items for H-PCK were developed. Seven items were deleted from the original instrument after determining content validity by 10 in-service Home Economics teachers, which resulted in the 22 items of 3 domains(Knowledge of perspective on Home Economics Education(KP), Knowledge of Home Economics curriculum(KC), Knowledge of Home Economics instructional strategies(KI)). Second, data were collected from 137 Home Economics teachers via mail survey for pilot study to establish reliabilities for each individual domain and across the domains based on Cronbach's ${\alpha}$ and item-total correlation. The result showed good reliabilities in the cut-off value of .7 and .5 for Cronbach's ${\alpha}$ and for item-total correlation respectively. Third, the main study was performed with 220 Home Economics teachers via e-mail survey and the reliability and validity tests were conducted. The reliability test results showed good reliabilities. The model for confirmatory factor analysis(CFA) provided a good fit to the data (e.g., CFI=.92, RMSEA=.06, SRMR=.05) to evaluate construct validity. The three domains of KP, KC, and KI demonstrated the acceptable convergent and discriminant validities in each individual domain and over domains. Thus, the instrument in this study may be utilized to measure H-PCK. Finally, criterion-related validity was performed to examine the extent to which the three domains are related to teacher efficacy with Pearson correlation (${\rho}$). It was relatively highly correlated at ${\rho}=.7$. In addition, the higher H-PCK the Home Economics teachers had, the higher teacher efficacy they had. The final instrument consisting of 22 items from 3 domains were determined through the entire procedure.

A Review of Statistical Methods in the Korean Journal of Orthodontics and the American Journal of Orthodontics and Dentofacial Orthopedics (대한치과교정학회지(KJO)와 미국교정학회지(AJODO)에서 사용된 통계기법의 비교분석 및 고찰(1999-2003))

  • Lim, Hoi-Jeong
    • The korean journal of orthodontics
    • /
    • v.34 no.5 s.106
    • /
    • pp.371-379
    • /
    • 2004
  • The purpose of this study was to investigate the changes and types of statistical methods used in the Korean Journal of Orthodontics (KJO) and the American Journal of Orthodontics and Dentofacial Orthopedics (AJODO) from )999 to 2003. The frequency of use, transitions, assumption check of statistical methods and types of advanced statistical methods were examined from each journal. The study consisted of 247 articles published in the KJO and randomly chosen 50 articles per year which were original articles and used statistical methods T-test, analysis of variance(ANOVA), correlation analysis, nonparametric analysis. regression analysis chi-square test. factor analysis, were the order of statistical methods most frequently used in the KJO, while t-test. ANOVA, nonparametric analysis, correlation analysis, regression analysis, chi-square test. factor analysis. were the order of statistical methods used in the AJODO The changes of statistical methods observed in the KJO were not significant $(X^2=17.4\;p=0.5881)$ but the changes observed in the AJODO was seen to be significant $(x^2=42.4,\;p=0.0397)$ Some of the studies examined had overlooked the assumptions of the statistical methods employed. Data investigation such as outlier should be performed before analysis and alternative statistical approaches are applied for a small sample size. Types of advanced statistical methods were factor analysis and discriminant analysis in the KJO and Intention-To-Treat (ITT) analysis in clinical trials through multi-center, survival analysis and Generalized Estimating Equations (GEE) in the AJODO. Appropriate analysis approaches and interpretations should be applied for the correlated and repeated measurements of the orthodontic data set.

The Effect of the Context Awareness Value on the Smartphone Adopter' Advertising Attitude (스마트폰광고 이용자의 광고태도에 영향을 미치는 상황인지가치에 관한 연구)

  • Yang, Chang-Gyu;Lee, Eui-Bang;Huang, Yunchu
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
    • /
    • v.19 no.3
    • /
    • pp.73-91
    • /
    • 2013
  • Advertising market has been facing new challenges due to dramatic change in advertising channels and the advent of innovative media such as mobile devices. Recent research related to mobile devices is mainly focused on the fact that mobile devices could identify users'physical location in real-time, and this sheds light on how location-based technology is utilized to achieve competitive advantage in advertising market. With the introduction of smartphone, the functionality of smartphone has become much more diverse and context awareness is one of the areas that require further study. This work analyses the influence of context awareness value resulted from the transformation of advertising channel in mobile communication market, and our research result reflects recent trend in advertising market environment which is not considered in previous studies. Many constructs has intensively been studied in the context of advertising channel in traditional marketing environment, and entertainment, irritation and information are considered to be the most widely accepted variables that has positive relationship with advertising value. Also, in smartphone advertisement, four main dimensions of context awareness value are recognized: identification, activity, timing and location. In this study, we assume that these four constructs has positive relationship with context awareness value. Finally, we propose that advertising value and context awareness value positively influence smartphone advertising attitude. Partial Least Squares (PLS) structural model is used in our theoretical research model to test proposed hypotheses. A well designed survey is conducted for college students in Korea, and reliability, convergent validity and discriminant validity of constructs and measurement indicators are carefully evaluated and the results show that reliability and validity are confirmed according to predefined statistical criteria. Goodness-of-fit of our research model is also supported. In summary, the results collectively suggest good measurement properties for the proposed research model. The research outcomes are as follows. First, information has positive impact on advertising value while entertainment and irritation have no significant impact. Information, entertainment and irritation together account for 38.8% of advertising value. Second, along with the change in advertising market due to the advent of smartphone, activity, timing and location have positive impact on context awareness value while identification has no significant impact. In addition, identification, activity, location and time together account for 46.3% of context awareness value. Third, advertising value and context awareness value both positively influence smartphone advertising attitude, and these two constructs explain 31.7% of the variability of smartphone advertising attitude. The theoretical implication of our research is as follows. First, the influence of entertainment and irritation is reduced which are known to be crucial factors according to previous studies related to advertising value, while the influence of information is increased. It indicates that smartphone users are not likely interested in entertaining effect of smartphone advertisement, and are insensitive to the inconvenience due to smartphone advertisement. Second, in today' ubiquitous computing environment, it is effective to provide differentiated advertising service by utilizing smartphone users'context awareness values such as identification, activity, timing and location in order to achieve competitive business advantage in advertising market. For practical implications, enterprises should provide valuable and useful information that might attract smartphone users by adopting differentiation strategy as smartphone users are sensitive to the information provided via smartphone. Also enterprises not only provide useful information but also recognize and utilize smarphone users' unique characteristics and behaviors by increasing context awareness values. In summary, our result implies that smartphone advertisement should be optimized by considering the needed information of smartphone users in order to maximize advertisement effect.

A Meta Analysis of Using Structural Equation Model on the Korean MIS Research (국내 MIS 연구에서 구조방정식모형 활용에 관한 메타분석)

  • Kim, Jong-Ki;Jeon, Jin-Hwan
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
    • /
    • v.19 no.4
    • /
    • pp.47-75
    • /
    • 2009
  • Recently, researches on Management Information Systems (MIS) have laid out theoretical foundation and academic paradigms by introducing diverse theories, themes, and methodologies. Especially, academic paradigms of MIS encourage a user-friendly approach by developing the technologies from the users' perspectives, which reflects the existence of strong causal relationships between information systems and user's behavior. As in other areas in social science the use of structural equation modeling (SEM) has rapidly increased in recent years especially in the MIS area. The SEM technique is important because it provides powerful ways to address key IS research problems. It also has a unique ability to simultaneously examine a series of casual relationships while analyzing multiple independent and dependent variables all at the same time. In spite of providing many benefits to the MIS researchers, there are some potential pitfalls with the analytical technique. The research objective of this study is to provide some guidelines for an appropriate use of SEM based on the assessment of current practice of using SEM in the MIS research. This study focuses on several statistical issues related to the use of SEM in the MIS research. Selected articles are assessed in three parts through the meta analysis. The first part is related to the initial specification of theoretical model of interest. The second is about data screening prior to model estimation and testing. And the last part concerns estimation and testing of theoretical models based on empirical data. This study reviewed the use of SEM in 164 empirical research articles published in four major MIS journals in Korea (APJIS, ISR, JIS and JITAM) from 1991 to 2007. APJIS, ISR, JIS and JITAM accounted for 73, 17, 58, and 16 of the total number of applications, respectively. The number of published applications has been increased over time. LISREL was the most frequently used SEM software among MIS researchers (97 studies (59.15%)), followed by AMOS (45 studies (27.44%)). In the first part, regarding issues related to the initial specification of theoretical model of interest, all of the studies have used cross-sectional data. The studies that use cross-sectional data may be able to better explain their structural model as a set of relationships. Most of SEM studies, meanwhile, have employed. confirmatory-type analysis (146 articles (89%)). For the model specification issue about model formulation, 159 (96.9%) of the studies were the full structural equation model. For only 5 researches, SEM was used for the measurement model with a set of observed variables. The average sample size for all models was 365.41, with some models retaining a sample as small as 50 and as large as 500. The second part of the issue is related to data screening prior to model estimation and testing. Data screening is important for researchers particularly in defining how they deal with missing values. Overall, discussion of data screening was reported in 118 (71.95%) of the studies while there was no study discussing evidence of multivariate normality for the models. On the third part, issues related to the estimation and testing of theoretical models on empirical data, assessing model fit is one of most important issues because it provides adequate statistical power for research models. There were multiple fit indices used in the SEM applications. The test was reported in the most of studies (146 (89%)), whereas normed-test was reported less frequently (65 studies (39.64%)). It is important that normed- of 3 or lower is required for adequate model fit. The most popular model fit indices were GFI (109 (66.46%)), AGFI (84 (51.22%)), NFI (44 (47.56%)), RMR (42 (25.61%)), CFI (59 (35.98%)), RMSEA (62 (37.80)), and NNFI (48 (29.27%)). Regarding the test of construct validity, convergent validity has been examined in 109 studies (66.46%) and discriminant validity in 98 (59.76%). 81 studies (49.39%) have reported the average variance extracted (AVE). However, there was little discussion of direct (47 (28.66%)), indirect, and total effect in the SEM models. Based on these findings, we suggest general guidelines for the use of SEM and propose some recommendations on concerning issues of latent variables models, raw data, sample size, data screening, reporting parameter estimated, model fit statistics, multivariate normality, confirmatory factor analysis, reliabilities and the decomposition of effects.

Studies on Discrimination between Organic Rice and Non-organic Rice using Natural Abundance of Stable Isotope Nitrogen($\delta^{15}N$) (질소 안정동위원소 자연존재비($\delta^{15}N$)를 이용한 유기벼와 일반벼 판별법 탐색)

  • Lee, Hyo-Won;Lee, Sang-Mo
    • Korean Journal of Organic Agriculture
    • /
    • v.18 no.2
    • /
    • pp.257-269
    • /
    • 2010
  • To investigate the possibility of discrimination between organic and non-organic rice using stable isotope nitrogen of natural abundance, organic rice of 17 samples and non-organic rice of 13 samples grown at adjoining organic rice field were collected in 2008. Rice was grinded into brown rice, milled rice and hull, and samples were analysed for nitrogen and $\delta^{15}N$ at NICEM. Authors also made inquiries about N source for both farmers who conduct organic- and non-organic rice cultivation. In order to know whether the $\delta^{15}N$ can be used in discrimination between organic and non-organic rice, discriminant analysis were made with SPSS and logistic method. 1. Organic farmers used manure, rice bran, used mushroom culture, fermented fertilizer (company products), and oil cake, but non-organic farmers applied compound fertilizer. Rice straws were remained in organic rice field while moved out in non-organic field. 2. There were difference in $\delta^{15}N$ among organic rice and its byproduct(7.760????% in hull, 6.720????% in rice), but significant difference was not found between them. And the trend was same between province. Non-organic rice showed similar results. 3. Significant difference of $\delta^{15}N$ were found between organic rice and non-organic rice (p<0.01) and between hull of organic rice and that of non-organic rice hull (p<0.05). $\delta^{15}N$ seemed to be useful criteria for discrimination of organic and non-organic rice. 4. When applied discrimination analysis of SPSS and logistic, there were significant difference between organic rice, non-organic rice and its byproducts except brown rice and hull in SPSS method. Hull can be used as the most useful component for unknown sample prediction with 83.3% probability.

Bankruptcy Prediction Modeling Using Qualitative Information Based on Big Data Analytics (빅데이터 기반의 정성 정보를 활용한 부도 예측 모형 구축)

  • Jo, Nam-ok;Shin, Kyung-shik
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
    • /
    • v.22 no.2
    • /
    • pp.33-56
    • /
    • 2016
  • Many researchers have focused on developing bankruptcy prediction models using modeling techniques, such as statistical methods including multiple discriminant analysis (MDA) and logit analysis or artificial intelligence techniques containing artificial neural networks (ANN), decision trees, and support vector machines (SVM), to secure enhanced performance. Most of the bankruptcy prediction models in academic studies have used financial ratios as main input variables. The bankruptcy of firms is associated with firm's financial states and the external economic situation. However, the inclusion of qualitative information, such as the economic atmosphere, has not been actively discussed despite the fact that exploiting only financial ratios has some drawbacks. Accounting information, such as financial ratios, is based on past data, and it is usually determined one year before bankruptcy. Thus, a time lag exists between the point of closing financial statements and the point of credit evaluation. In addition, financial ratios do not contain environmental factors, such as external economic situations. Therefore, using only financial ratios may be insufficient in constructing a bankruptcy prediction model, because they essentially reflect past corporate internal accounting information while neglecting recent information. Thus, qualitative information must be added to the conventional bankruptcy prediction model to supplement accounting information. Due to the lack of an analytic mechanism for obtaining and processing qualitative information from various information sources, previous studies have only used qualitative information. However, recently, big data analytics, such as text mining techniques, have been drawing much attention in academia and industry, with an increasing amount of unstructured text data available on the web. A few previous studies have sought to adopt big data analytics in business prediction modeling. Nevertheless, the use of qualitative information on the web for business prediction modeling is still deemed to be in the primary stage, restricted to limited applications, such as stock prediction and movie revenue prediction applications. Thus, it is necessary to apply big data analytics techniques, such as text mining, to various business prediction problems, including credit risk evaluation. Analytic methods are required for processing qualitative information represented in unstructured text form due to the complexity of managing and processing unstructured text data. This study proposes a bankruptcy prediction model for Korean small- and medium-sized construction firms using both quantitative information, such as financial ratios, and qualitative information acquired from economic news articles. The performance of the proposed method depends on how well information types are transformed from qualitative into quantitative information that is suitable for incorporating into the bankruptcy prediction model. We employ big data analytics techniques, especially text mining, as a mechanism for processing qualitative information. The sentiment index is provided at the industry level by extracting from a large amount of text data to quantify the external economic atmosphere represented in the media. The proposed method involves keyword-based sentiment analysis using a domain-specific sentiment lexicon to extract sentiment from economic news articles. The generated sentiment lexicon is designed to represent sentiment for the construction business by considering the relationship between the occurring term and the actual situation with respect to the economic condition of the industry rather than the inherent semantics of the term. The experimental results proved that incorporating qualitative information based on big data analytics into the traditional bankruptcy prediction model based on accounting information is effective for enhancing the predictive performance. The sentiment variable extracted from economic news articles had an impact on corporate bankruptcy. In particular, a negative sentiment variable improved the accuracy of corporate bankruptcy prediction because the corporate bankruptcy of construction firms is sensitive to poor economic conditions. The bankruptcy prediction model using qualitative information based on big data analytics contributes to the field, in that it reflects not only relatively recent information but also environmental factors, such as external economic conditions.