• 제목/요약/키워드: confidence probability

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이항신뢰구간에 대한 소고 (A Short Consideration of Binomial Confidence Interval)

  • 류제복
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • 제16권5호
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    • pp.731-743
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    • 2009
  • 이항비율에 대한 구간추정의 문제는 오래전부터 많이 다루어져 왔다. 본 논문에서는 주요 신뢰구간들의 특성을 비교하고 신뢰구간의 평가기준인 포함확률과 신뢰구간의 길이에 대해 이제까지 다루어져온 문제들을 종합 정리해 보았다. 실제로 이항신뢰구간 문제를 다룰 때 고려해야 할 3가지 추가 사항들을 살펴보고, 이항비율 추정에 늘 문제가 되는 낮은 이항비율에 대한 향후 논의 사항들을 제시하였다.

이항모수의 신뢰구간추정량에 대한 실제포함확률에 관한 연구 (On the actual coverage probability of binomial parameter)

  • 김대학
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • 제21권4호
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    • pp.737-745
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    • 2010
  • 본 연구는 이항분포의 성공의 확률에 대한 신뢰구간추정량들을 비교분석하고자 한다. 일반적으로 대표본의 경우에 적용되는 잘 알려진 신뢰구간추정량과 소표본의 경우에도 적용될 수 있는 정확신뢰구간, 그리고 포아송 분포를 이용하여 구한 신뢰구간추정량과 연속성의 수정을 고려한 추정량들을 소 표본의 모의실험을 통하여 실제포함확률의 측면에서 비교하였다.

Nonparametric confidence intervals for quantiles based on a modified ranked set sampling

  • Morabbi, Hakime;Razmkhah, Mostafa;Ahmadi, Jafar
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • 제23권2호
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    • pp.119-129
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    • 2016
  • A new sampling method is introduced based on the idea of a ranked set sampling scheme in which taken samples in each set are dependent on previous ones. Some theoretical results are presented and distribution-free confidence intervals are derived for the quantiles of any continuous population. It is shown numerically that the proposed sampling scheme may lead to 95% confidence intervals (especially for extreme quantiles) that cannot be found based on the ordinary ranked set sampling scheme presented by Chen (2000) and Balakrishnan and Li (2006). Optimality aspects of this scheme are investigated for both coverage probability and minimum expected length criteria. A real data set is also used to illustrate the proposed procedure. Conclusions are eventually stated.

Bootstrap and Delete-d Jackknife Confidence Intervals for Parameters of an Exponential Distribution

  • Kang, Suk-Bok;Cho, Young-Suk
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • 제8권1호
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    • pp.59-70
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    • 1997
  • We introduce several estimators of the location and the scale parameters of the two-parameter exponential distribution, and then compare these estimators by the mean square error (MSE). Using the parametric bootstrap estimators and the delete-d jackknife, we obtain the bootstrap and the delete-d jackknife confidence intervals for the location and the scale parameters and compare the bootstrap confidence intervals with the delete-d jackknife confidence intervals by length and coverage probability through Monte Carlo method.

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ESTIMATING THE SIMULTANEOUS CONFIDENCE LEVELS FOR THE DIFFERENCE OF PROPORTIONS FROM MULTIVARIATE BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTIONS

  • Jeong, Hyeong-Chul;Jhun, Myoung-Shic;Lee, Jae-Won
    • Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
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    • 제36권3호
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    • pp.397-410
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    • 2007
  • For the two groups data from multivariate binomial distribution, we consider a bootstrap approach to inferring the simultaneous confidence level and its standard error of a collection of the dependent confidence intervals for the difference of proportions with an experimentwise error rate at the a level are presented. The bootstrap method is used to estimate the simultaneous confidence probability for the difference of proportions.

낮은 이항 비율에 대한 신뢰구간 (Confidence Intervals for a tow Binomial Proportion)

  • 류제복;이승주
    • 응용통계연구
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    • 제19권2호
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    • pp.217-230
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    • 2006
  • 본 연구에서는 낮은 이항비율에 관한 구간추정을 위해서 어떤 신뢰구간이 바람직한지를 살펴보았다. 실제 적으로 희귀질병, 특정 산업재해율, 그리 고 기생충에 관한 실태조사를 위해서 대규모 표본조사가 실시된다. 표본 규모가 크고, 0 < p ${\leq}$ 0.1인 상황에서 모비율 p의 추정에 바람직한 신뢰구간을 살펴보았다. 위의 조건에서 6가지의 신뢰구간들에 대해 평균포함확률과 평균제곱오차의 제곱근, 그리고 평균기대폭을 사용한 결과 Mid-p 신뢰 구간이 가장 바람직하고 다음으로 AC, score와 Jeffrey 신뢰 구간들이 적절한 것으로 밝혀졌다.

기상변수들의 확률밀도함수(PDF)에 따른 CalTOX모델을 이용한 BTEX 인체노출량 및 인체위해성 평가 연구 (Human Exposure to BTEX and Its Risk Assessment Using the CalTOX Model According to the Probability Density Function in Meteorological Input Data)

  • 김옥;송영호;최진하;박상현;박창용;이민우;이진헌
    • 한국환경보건학회지
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    • 제45권5호
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    • pp.497-510
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    • 2019
  • Objectives: The aim of this study was to secure the reliability of using the CalTOX model when evaluating LADD (or ADD) and Risk (or HQ) among local residents for the emission of BTEX (Benzene, Toluene, Ethylbenzene, Xylene) and by closely examining the difference in the confidence interval of the assessment outcomes according to the difference in the probability density function of input variables. Methods: The assessment was made by dividing it according to the method ($I^{\dagger}$) of inputting the probability density function in meteorological variables of the model with log-normal distribution and the method of inputting ($II^{\ddagger}$) after grasping the optimal probability density function using @Risk. A T-test was carried out in order to analyze the difference in confidence interval of the two assessment results. Results: It was evaluated to be 1.46E-03 mg/kg-d in LADD of Benzene, 1.96E-04 mg/kg-d in ADD of Toluene, 8.15E-05 mg/kg-d in ADD of Ethylbenzene, and 2.30E-04 mg/kg-d in ADD of Xylene. As for the predicted confidence interval in LADD and ADD, there was a significant difference between the $I^{\dagger}$ and $II^{\ddagger}$ methods in $LADD_{Inhalation}$ for Benzene, and in $ADD_{Inhalation}$ and ADD for Toluene and Xylene. It appeared to be 3.58E-05 for risk in Benzene, 3.78E-03 for HQ in Toluene, 1.48E-03 for HQ in Ethylbenzene, and 3.77E-03 for HQ in Xylene. As a result of the HQ in Toluene and Xylene, the difference in confidence interval between the $I^{\dagger}$ and $II^{\ddagger}$ methods was shown to be significant. Conclusions: The human risk assessment for BTEX was made by dividing it into the method ($I^{\dagger}$) of inputting the probability density function of meteorological variables for the CalTOX model with log-normal distribution, and the method of inputting ($II^{\ddagger}$) after grasping the optimal probability density function using @Risk. As a result, it was identified that Risk (or HQ) is the same, but that there is a significant difference in the confidence interval of Risk (or HQ) between the $I^{\dagger}$ and $II^{\ddagger}$ methods.

The Range of confidence Intervals for ${\sigma}^{2}_{A}/{\sigma}^{2}_{B}$ in Two-Factor Nested Variance Component Model

  • Kang, Kwan-Joong
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • 제9권2호
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    • pp.159-164
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    • 1998
  • The two-factor nested variance component model with equal numbers in the cells are given by $y_{ijk}\;=\;{\mu}\;+\;A_i\;+\;B_{ij}\;+\;C_{ijk}$ and the confidence intervals for the ratio of variance components, ${\sigma}^{2}_{A}/{\sigma}^{2}_{B}$ are obtained in various forms by many authors. This article shows the probability ranges of these confidence intervals on ${\sigma}^{2}_{A}/{\sigma}^{2}_{B}$ proved by the mathematical computation.

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Balanced Simultaneous Confidence Intervals in Logistic Regression Models

  • Lee, Kee-Won
    • Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
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    • 제21권2호
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    • pp.139-151
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    • 1992
  • Simultaneous confidence intervals for the parameters in the logistic regression models with random regressors are considered. A method based on the bootstrap and its stochastic approximation will be developed. A key idea in using the bootstrap method to construct simultaneous confidence intervals is the concept of prepivoting which uses the transformation of a root by its estimated cumulative distribution function. Repeated use of prepivoting makes the overall coverage probability asymptotically correct and the coverage probabilities of the individual confidence statement asymptotically equal. This method is compared with ordinary asymptotic methods based on Scheffe's and Bonferroni's through Monte Carlo simulation.

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